基于理性预期均衡的物流服务供应链任务分配研究

发布时间：2018-12-13 21:49

【摘要】：能力分配决策是供应链战略中最重要的决策之一。面对多个物流服务提供商时，物流服务集成商如何进行需求订单任务的合理分配是保证物流服务供应链长期稳定运作的关键。目前对供应链任务分配的研究主要集中在产品供应链，对服务供应链的研究较少，而且在任务分配模型构建的过程中，仅仅考虑时间、成本等目标。特别是在以往的供应链任务分配研究中，参与任务分配的企业往往都是被动地接受订单。但是在实际的订单分配中，参与企业具有战略行为，他们会从自身的利润、满意度等角度出发，以决定是否参与任务分配。而这种行为对任务分配结果具有重要影响。因此，本文以物流服务供应链为研究背景，将行为运营理论运用到供应链任务分配中，在任务分配过程中考虑提供商的各种战略行为，基于理性预期均衡理论，以集成商总成本、提供商满意度、能力匹配程度为目标函数，构建物流服务供应链任务分配模型，为物流企业在实际的物流实践运营中制定科学的决策提供必要的理论参考依据。本文首先给出了研究背景和研究现状，分析了物流服务供应链相关理论的发展现状，之后梳理了供应链任务分配、理性预期均衡、供应商竞争等方面的理论成果，对现有参考文献进行总结，指出其研究的不足之处，为全文的研究奠定了理论基础。之后，本文从任务分配参与者的战略行为出发，进行了四个方面的研究，分别是：（1）论文首先在物流服务供应链任务分配中考虑提供商的预估行为，将这种行为用数学语言在模型中进行体现，并分析了不确定程度、预期折扣系数、提供商商誉等因素对分配结果的影响。（2）论文在之前研究的基础上，进一步考虑竞争环境下任务分配模型的构建，并通过数值分析探究了竞争激烈程度、增加不同类型提供商对任务分配的影响规律。（3）论文在预估行为存在的情况下，又引入提供商报价博弈这一行为，并假设集成商以提供商的报价为依据进行任务分配，构建了多目标动态规划模型。通过数值分析，比较了四种不同情况下（考虑预估行为、考虑报价博弈、既考虑预估行为又考虑报价博弈、都不考虑）任务分配的变化，更加深入地揭示了预估行为和报价博弈的作用。（4）论文研究了当集成商自身具有提供物流服务能力时，，任务分配模型的变化，并研究了集成商自有服务能力的数量和价格对任务分配的影响，为集成商更好地管理物流服务供应链提出建议。最后，本文给出了研究结论和未来展望。
[Abstract]:Ability allocation decision is one of the most important decisions in supply chain strategy. In the face of multiple logistics service providers, it is the key to ensure the long-term stable operation of the logistics service supply chain that how the logistics service integrators carry out the reasonable assignment of demand order tasks. At present, the research on task allocation of supply chain is mainly focused on product supply chain, but less on service supply chain. In the process of constructing task assignment model, only time, cost and other objectives are considered. Especially in the previous research of supply chain task assignment, enterprises involved in task assignment often passively accept orders. However, in the actual order allocation, the participating enterprises have strategic behavior, they will start from their own profit, satisfaction and other aspects to decide whether to participate in task allocation. This behavior has an important impact on the outcome of task allocation. Therefore, this paper takes logistics service supply chain as the research background, applies the behavior operation theory to the supply chain task allocation, considers various strategic behaviors of the provider in the task assignment process, based on the rational expectation equilibrium theory. Taking the total cost of the integrator, the satisfaction degree of the provider and the ability matching degree as the objective function, the task assignment model of the logistics service supply chain is constructed. It provides the necessary theoretical reference for logistics enterprises to make scientific decision in the actual logistics practice operation. This paper first gives the research background and research status, analyzes the development of logistics service supply chain theory, then combs the supply chain task allocation, rational expectation equilibrium, supplier competition and other theoretical results. This paper summarizes the existing references, points out the shortcomings of the research, and lays a theoretical foundation for the full study. Then, from the strategic behavior of task allocation participants, this paper studies four aspects: (1) in the first part of the thesis, we consider the expected behavior of providers in the task allocation of logistics service supply chain. This behavior is represented by mathematical language in the model, and the influence of uncertainty, expected discount coefficient and provider goodwill on the distribution results is analyzed. (2) based on the previous research, the paper analyzes the effect of uncertainty, expected discount coefficient, and provider goodwill on the distribution results. (2) on the basis of previous studies, Further consider the construction of task assignment model in competitive environment, and through numerical analysis to explore the intensity of competition, increase the impact of different types of providers on task allocation. (3) in the case of prediction behavior, Furthermore, the behavior of provider bidding game is introduced, and the multi-objective dynamic programming model is constructed on the assumption that the integrator allocates tasks based on the provider's quotation. Through numerical analysis, we compare the changes of task allocation in four different situations (considering the behavior of prediction, considering the game of quotation, considering both the behavior of estimate and the game of quotation, all of which do not take into account). (4) this paper studies the change of task allocation model when the integrator has the ability to provide logistics services. The influence of the quantity and price of the integrator's own service capacity on the task assignment is studied, and some suggestions are put forward for the integrator to manage the logistics service supply chain better. Finally, the conclusion and future prospect are given.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F259.2;F274

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