信息删失情形下多阶段库存控制与协调问题研究

发布时间：2018-12-14 00:20

【摘要】：需求信息删失(Demand Information is Censored, DIC)是指当可供销售的库存量小于市场需求的时候,真实的市场需求就不能被完全获取,从而导致客户的需求无法完全满足,在一些文章中也称之为需求信息部分观测或不完整观测。需求信息删失是当前企业管理经营中普遍存在的现象,也是现代经营环境的一个重要特征；多次订购是解决信息删失的有效手段,它可以尽可能的应用观测到的市场信息,提高需求预测的准确性,进而提升企业在不断变化的市场竞争情形中的竞争力,如果在做库存控制决策的时候忽略需求的DIC特点,就会产生对需求一个错误的理解,如果再以这个错误的认识来更新需求,则会形成恶性循环,导致更大的损失,但是考虑信息删失的时候又会导致模型求解的过程过于复杂,所以对信息删失的影响研究还处于起步阶段。本文的研究就是基于DIC的背景下,讨论如何通过合理的订货策略,来提高供需双方的收益值,首先我们介绍了信息删失在现代经营过程中重要性,如果不考虑信息的DIC特征,可能会导致恶性循环；紧接着我们介绍了本文研究过程所使用到的相关理论方法,其实最重要的就是不完全信息更新理论,在文章中有详细介绍：在文章的核心部分我们首先将整个销售周期划分为两个子阶段,对设定的问题背景进行描述,然后分别研究制造商领导下的Stackelberg博弈,以及集中决策模型,我们能够发现集中决策虽然可以提高供应链的整体收益,但是损害了供需双方一方的利益,所以接下来我们引入了一个转移支付契约来协调供应链。在所有的模型建立之后我们给出了模型的算法以及数值算例,通过实验仿真来证明我们研究的正确性；在文章的第四章,我们将两个阶段的特殊情形推广到了多阶段情形,利用动态规划的方法来解决此类问题,并给出数值算例。
[Abstract]:When the amount of inventory available for sale is smaller than the market demand, the true market demand cannot be fully obtained, which leads to the customer's demand being unable to be fully satisfied. In some articles, it is also called partial observation or incomplete observation of demand information. The deletion of demand information is a common phenomenon in the current enterprise management, and it is also an important feature of the modern business environment. Multiple ordering is an effective way to solve the problem of information deletion. It can use the observed market information as much as possible, improve the accuracy of demand prediction, and then enhance the competitiveness of enterprises in the changing market competition. If the DIC characteristics of requirements are ignored when making inventory control decisions, a wrong understanding of demand will occur. If the demand is updated with this wrong understanding, a vicious circle will be formed, resulting in greater losses. However, the process of solving the model is too complicated when considering the information deletion, so the research on the effect of information deletion is still in its infancy. In this paper, based on the background of DIC, we discuss how to improve the profit value of both supply and demand through reasonable ordering strategy. Firstly, we introduce the importance of information deletion in the modern business process, if we do not consider the DIC characteristics of information. May lead to a vicious circle; Then we introduce the relevant theoretical methods used in the research process, in fact, the most important is incomplete information update theory. In this paper, we introduce in detail: in the core part of the article, we divide the whole sales cycle into two sub-stages, describe the set background of the problem, and then study the Stackelberg game under the leadership of the manufacturer and the centralized decision model, respectively. We can find that centralized decision can improve the overall income of the supply chain, but it damages the interests of both supply and demand parties, so we introduce a transfer payment contract to coordinate the supply chain. After all the models are built, we give the algorithm of the model and the numerical examples, and verify the correctness of our research by the experimental simulation. In the fourth chapter, we extend the special case of two stages to the multi-stage case, use the dynamic programming method to solve this kind of problem, and give a numerical example.
【学位授予单位】：南京理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F274;TP309

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