燃煤发电企业煤炭供应风险控制方法研究

发布时间：2019-02-19 19:55

【摘要】：近年来,随着煤炭市场的大幅波动和电力市场的持续低迷,煤电间的矛盾不断凸显,能源供应形势愈加严峻,燃煤发电企业为降低供电煤耗成本不得不掺烧劣质煤,这就使得电厂进煤来源复杂化、煤种多样化,并且由于市场煤受煤矿、铁路、港口、中间商等中间物流环节种种复杂因素的限制,使得煤炭供应形势变得异常复杂,煤炭供应风险对企业生产经营过程的影响更加深化,同时煤炭作为燃煤发电企业的最重要的生产要素,燃料成本影响企业盈亏的风险明显动态化。本文站在燃煤发电企业的角度,运用风险管理及供应链风险管理理论,从电煤供应的业务流程和价值链环节进行煤炭供应风险识别,并在对其风险因素全方位识别的基础上进行电煤供应风险分析。然后,根据当前电煤供应的实际形势将燃料成本、供需结构及库存方案为风险分析研究的核心,结合燃煤发电企业实际经营情况建立火电机组成本一利润动态模型、原煤混配经济模型及燃煤库存风险控制模型并进行分析。最后,根据电煤供应链特点和企业经营实践经验运用风险应对理论,提出了燃煤发电企业煤炭供应风险防控策略、方法及建议。本文研究贴合燃煤发电企业煤炭供应实际状况,对燃煤发电企业如何更好的进行煤炭供应风险防范、规避燃煤价格风险,加强发供电成本控制,提高企业盈利能力具有重要意义。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the large fluctuation of coal market and the continuous downturn of electricity market, the contradiction between coal and electricity is becoming increasingly prominent, and the situation of energy supply is becoming more and more severe. In order to reduce the cost of coal consumption, coal-fired power generation enterprises have to burn inferior coal. This has complicated the sources of coal intake in power plants, diversified the types of coal, and because the market coal is restricted by various complicated factors such as coal mines, railways, ports, middlemen and other intermediate logistics links, the coal supply situation has become extremely complex. The influence of coal supply risk on enterprise production and management process is deepened. Meanwhile, as the most important production factor of coal-fired power generation enterprise, the risk of fuel cost influencing enterprise profit and loss is obviously dynamic. Based on the theory of risk management and supply chain risk management, this paper identifies the coal supply risk from the business process and value chain of coal supply. On the basis of identifying the risk factors, the risk of coal supply is analyzed. Then, according to the actual situation of power coal supply at present, the fuel cost, supply and demand structure and inventory plan are taken as the core of risk analysis and research, and a dynamic model of coal-fired unit cost-profit is established according to the actual operating conditions of coal-fired power generation enterprises. Raw coal mixed economic model and coal inventory risk control model and analysis. Finally, according to the characteristics of coal supply chain and the practical experience of enterprises, the paper puts forward the coal supply risk prevention and control strategy, methods and suggestions based on the theory of risk response. This paper studies the actual situation of coal supply in coal-fired power generation enterprises, how to better prevent coal supply risks, avoid the price risks of coal, and strengthen the cost control of power generation. It is of great significance to improve the profitability of enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F274;F426.21

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