基于蛛网模型与羊群效应的农超模式利益分配分析
发布时间：2019-05-21 10:43
【摘要】：农产品的研究随着人们的生活的提高也日益受到国内的学者关注，但生活中时常可见的买菜贵和卖菜难的现象。笔者认为农超建设的关键在于供应链利益分配，合理的利益分配才能使得合作具有稳定性和推广性。在合作形成的供应链模式中将以订单为主，此时合作的关键在于供求信息的预测分析。于是本文结合供求与流通两个环节出发进行分析。希望能为农超合作提供一些数理依据，旨在为农超合作提供切实有效的建设指导。 在供求方面以传统的蛛网模型作为基础的同时结合了羊群效应理论，以利润率为视角验证了价格涨幅对未来供给量波动的影响视角。证实了在行为经济视角中农户种植仍然存在着蛛网模型效应。同时建立了Q Q0R的模型预测收益变化时下一个周期的销量。 在流通方面分析了农超合作的收益分配模型，得出了在农超合作的供应链下，如何通过利益分配能够有效的稳定供应链的合作关系得到了供应链利益分配α的区间。 最后，融合了供求和流通两个方面的分析，将实际的数据进行代入拟算。交易量预测模型的预测平均准确率为87.19%，，白花菜样本的利益分配的取值区间为[0.16，0.2]，同时还得出了农超建设的合作距离范围，为农超建设规划提供了依据。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of people's life, the research of agricultural products has been paid more and more attention by domestic scholars, but it is often seen in life that it is expensive to buy and difficult to sell. The author believes that the key to the construction of Nongchao lies in the distribution of interests in the supply chain, and the reasonable distribution of interests can make the cooperation stable and popularize. Orders will be the main supply chain model formed by cooperation, and the key to cooperation lies in the prediction and analysis of supply and demand information. So this article combines the supply and demand and circulation two links to carry on the analysis. It is hoped that it can provide some mathematical basis for the cooperation of Nongchao, and provide practical and effective construction guidance for the cooperation of Nongchao. In the aspect of supply and demand, based on the traditional spider web model, combined with herding effect theory, the influence of price increase on future supply fluctuation is verified from the perspective of profit margin. It is confirmed that there is still spider web model effect in farmers' planting from the perspective of behavioral economy. At the same time, the model of Q Q 0 R is established to predict the sales volume in the next cycle when the return changes. In the aspect of circulation, this paper analyzes the income distribution model of agricultural super cooperation, and obtains the interval of supply chain benefit distribution 伪 through the cooperative relationship of benefit distribution which can effectively stabilize the supply chain under the supply chain of agricultural super cooperation. Finally, the actual data are calculated by combining the analysis of supply and demand and circulation. The average prediction accuracy of the transaction volume prediction model is 87.19%, and the range of benefit distribution of cauliflower samples is [0.16, 0.2]. At the same time, the cooperation distance range of Nongchao construction is obtained, which provides the basis for the construction planning of Nongchao.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F326.6
本文编号：2482043
[Abstract]:With the improvement of people's life, the research of agricultural products has been paid more and more attention by domestic scholars, but it is often seen in life that it is expensive to buy and difficult to sell. The author believes that the key to the construction of Nongchao lies in the distribution of interests in the supply chain, and the reasonable distribution of interests can make the cooperation stable and popularize. Orders will be the main supply chain model formed by cooperation, and the key to cooperation lies in the prediction and analysis of supply and demand information. So this article combines the supply and demand and circulation two links to carry on the analysis. It is hoped that it can provide some mathematical basis for the cooperation of Nongchao, and provide practical and effective construction guidance for the cooperation of Nongchao. In the aspect of supply and demand, based on the traditional spider web model, combined with herding effect theory, the influence of price increase on future supply fluctuation is verified from the perspective of profit margin. It is confirmed that there is still spider web model effect in farmers' planting from the perspective of behavioral economy. At the same time, the model of Q Q 0 R is established to predict the sales volume in the next cycle when the return changes. In the aspect of circulation, this paper analyzes the income distribution model of agricultural super cooperation, and obtains the interval of supply chain benefit distribution 伪 through the cooperative relationship of benefit distribution which can effectively stabilize the supply chain under the supply chain of agricultural super cooperation. Finally, the actual data are calculated by combining the analysis of supply and demand and circulation. The average prediction accuracy of the transaction volume prediction model is 87.19%, and the range of benefit distribution of cauliflower samples is [0.16, 0.2]. At the same time, the cooperation distance range of Nongchao construction is obtained, which provides the basis for the construction planning of Nongchao.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F326.6
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 郭恒军;农产品价格波动与期货市场机制[J];财经科学;1992年01期
2 刘晓峰;;“农超对接”模式下农户心理契约的构成及中介效应分析[J];财贸经济;2011年02期
3 柯美胜;;我国连锁超市企业供应链管理对策研究[J];当代经济;2007年09期
4 张利庠;张喜才;;外部冲击对我国农产品价格波动的影响研究——基于农业产业链视角[J];管理世界;2011年01期
5 常伟;;农产品价格异常波动的机理分析与对策探讨[J];价格理论与实践;2011年03期
6 杨芳;;美国农产品价格风险管理的经验及借鉴[J];农村经济;2010年02期
7 黄祖辉,刘东英;我国农产品物流体系建设与制度分析[J];农业经济问题;2005年04期
8 杨志宏;翟印礼;;超市农产品供应链流通成本分析——以沈阳市蔬菜市场为例[J];农业经济问题;2011年02期
9 巫国兴;我国农产品价格波动研究[J];农业经济问题;1997年06期
10 葛红岩;;借鉴发达国家经验 走农业产业化之路[J];农业经济;2006年08期
本文编号：2482043
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/guanlilunwen/gongyinglianguanli/2482043.html
