潜在市场需求不确定下的风险厌恶供应链决策

发布时间：2019-07-11 17:07

【摘要】：考虑新产品投入市场时潜在市场需求不确定下的供应链风险厌恶,构造了一个考虑制造商和零售商的效用函数,建立了基于广告费用、服务水平以及销售价格的最优短期决策模型,分析了需求风险和供应链成员风险容忍水平对供应链最优短期决策的影响,采用数值仿真分析了供应链最优长期决策。研究结果表明:最优广告费用分别是需求风险和风险容忍水平的单调递增和递减函数,最优销售价格和服务水平则因行业等因素不同与需求风险和风险容忍水平呈U型或倒U型关系;当市场环境变化时,销售价格和服务水平在不同市场条件下应做出不同调整,而广告费用调整与市场特征无关;从长期来看制造商可以达到效用最大化,而零售商效用只能次优。
[Abstract]:Considering the risk aversion of the supply chain under the uncertain market demand when the new product is put into the market, an optimal short-term decision-making model based on the advertising cost, the service level and the selling price is established considering the utility function of the manufacturer and the retailer. The influence of the demand risk and the risk tolerance level of the supply chain on the optimal short-term decision-making of the supply chain is analyzed, and the optimal long-term decision of the supply chain is analyzed by numerical simulation. The results show that the optimal advertising cost is the monotonously increasing and decreasing function of the demand risk and the risk tolerance level, the optimal selling price and the service level are in the U-shape or the inverted U-type relationship with the demand risk and the risk tolerance level due to the different factors such as the industry, and when the market environment changes, The sales price and service level should be adjusted differently under different market conditions, and the adjustment of the advertising cost is independent of the market characteristics; from the long-term perspective, the manufacturer can maximize the utility, and the retailer's utility can only be sub-optimal.
【作者单位】：重庆大学经济与工商管理学院;
【分类号】：F224;F274

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