外汇市场压力与国际收支敏感关系研究

发布时间：2017-12-28 02:36

本文关键词：外汇市场压力与国际收支敏感关系研究　出处：《商业研究》2013年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在经济全球化趋势下,汇率与国际收支之间的关系愈发重要。为了有效地体现外汇市场供需双方力量,本文采用外汇市场压力指数表示外汇市场压力,通过向量自回归模型分析外汇市场压力指数与国际收支的重要构成要素进口、出口和外商直接投资之间的敏感反应关系,研究结果表明外商直接投资对外汇市场压力的反应最为显著。因此,我国需持续调控外汇市场压力,在改善进出口结构和外商直接投资条件下保持平衡有效的国际收支状态;实施有管理的离散浮动汇率制度,在长期内保持汇率水平在一定的置信区间内波动,在短期内对外汇市场进行频繁小幅干预,以保持对外贸易规模的适度增长和外商直接投资的合理配置。
[Abstract]:In the trend of economic globalization, the relationship between the exchange rate and the balance of payments is becoming more and more important. In order to effectively reflect the foreign exchange market between supply and demand of power, the foreign exchange market pressure index of exchange market pressure, through the vector auto regression model analysis of sensitive relationship between important elements of the foreign exchange market pressure index and international balance of imports, exports and foreign direct investment, the results of the study show that foreign direct investment in the foreign exchange market pressure reaction significant. Therefore, our country should continue to regulate the foreign exchange market pressure, to improve the structure of import and export and foreign direct investment under the condition of keeping the balance of international payments and effective implementation of the discrete state; managed floating exchange rate system, exchange rate fluctuations remain within a certain confidence interval in the long term, in the short term to the foreign exchange market slightly frequent intervention. In order to maintain a reasonable allocation of moderate growth in the scale of foreign trade and foreign direct investment.
【作者单位】：吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“完善人民币汇率形成机制及应对升值压力研究”,项目编号:11BJY141 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“汇率与国际收支协动变化的中国经济发展模式研究”,项目编号:10YJC790164
【分类号】：F830.7;F113;F224
【正文快照】： 在经济全球化的趋势下,各国、各地区之间的经济关联度日益提升。由于外汇市场上货币的升值或贬值压力与各国、各地区对外经贸往来直接关联,外汇市场与国际收支项目之间存在协同变化。一、中国外汇市场压力分析改革开放以来,外汇市场的起伏变化直接影响人民币相对于其他外汇的

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