美国定量宽松货币政策的溢出效应与中国对策分析

发布时间：2017-12-30 19:16

本文关键词：美国定量宽松货币政策的溢出效应与中国对策分析　出处：《吉林大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：金融危机过后，为促进实体经济投资及恢复民众信心，美联储持续降低美国联邦利率直至其接近于零，但并未达到刺激经济的预期效果，被视为美国经济进入了“流动性陷阱”。对此，美联储采取多轮定量宽松的货币政策，不断为市场注入流动性。最早实施定量宽松货币政策的日本成为众多学者研究的对象，通过对日本2001年至2006年的各项经济指标和对日本经济的影响进行分析，得出日本经济仅仅走出通货紧缩，未使其实体经济实现突飞猛进的发展。大多数学者对这项货币政策的推出持否定态度，美国作为世界经济大国及美元在国际货币体系中的核心地位，美国采取该政策被认为是“以邻为壑”的货币政策，即通过溢出效应将美国在经济危机中的损失转嫁到他国，与此同时，居高不下的失业率及缓慢上升的GDP表明美国自身的经济尚未得到实质性改善。本文通过对定量宽松货币政策的涵义和理论背景分析，得出应对危机唯一有效的办法就是通过向市场直接注入流动性，故应采取定量宽松货币政策，但只是作为理论依据。事实上美国不同于日本，美元作为国际货币体系的储备货币，美元的宽松不仅对美国经济产生影响，也会由于美国与各个国家间的经济往来而产生溢出效应，那么分析美国定量宽松货币政策的溢出效应是极其必要的。文章对的美国近十年经济指标以及美联储资产负债表的结构分析，判断美国经济是否复苏，并分析定量宽松货币政策的实施效果和全球范围内的积极效应和负面影响。对美国定量宽松货币政策的溢出效应进行了较完整的研究和系统性分析。主要观点是美国定量宽松货币政策已逐步令美国经济得到改善，但不会达到美国政府预期，并预测美国定量宽松货币政策的实施不会结束，将会出现第三轮、甚至第四轮定量宽松货币政策。而且，在美元大幅度贬值的过程中，各个国家相继跟随美国采取定量宽松的货币政策，也是美国面临经济复苏的另一大难题，也是造成未来全球通胀可能性的一大诱因。此外，通过对其溢出原因的分析，预测和判断各个国家为了应对这项“以邻为壑”的货币政策的对策。本文就中国货币当局应当如何应对美国定量宽松货币政策的负效应提出建议，，即中国货币当局应在维持人民币汇率稳定的同时，实现金融市场自由化发展，加快人民币汇率国际化是摆脱过度依赖美元的一项重大措施。同时，在对国内经济方面，建议央行与政府政策相配合，大力发展农村金融、养老金金融等，对中国软环境方面提供信贷支持，也要加强对证券市场的流动性的监管，避免国际游资从房地产转投机到中国股市，使中国实体经济能稳健快速增长，虚拟经济相协调的健康发展。
[Abstract]:In the wake of the financial crisis, in order to boost investment in the real economy and restore public confidence, the Federal Reserve continued to reduce US federal interest rates until it was close to zero, but failed to achieve the desired effect of stimulating the economy. Seen as a "liquidity trap" for the US economy, the Fed has adopted multiple rounds of quantitative easing. Japan, which continuously injected liquidity into the market and first implemented quantitative easing monetary policy, has become the object of many scholars' research. Through the analysis of the economic indicators and the impact on the Japanese economy from 2001 to 2006, it is concluded that the Japanese economy is only out of deflation. Most scholars hold a negative attitude towards the introduction of this monetary policy, and the United States, as a world economic power and the core position of the US dollar in the international monetary system, has not made its real economy develop by leaps and bounds. The United States adopted this policy as a "beggar-thy-neighbour" monetary policy, whereby the losses of the United States in the economic crisis were passed on to other countries through spillover effects, at the same time. Stubbornly high unemployment and a slow rise in GDP suggest that the U.S. economy has yet to improve substantially. By analyzing the meaning and theoretical background of quantitative easing monetary policy, this paper concludes that the only effective way to deal with the crisis is to inject liquidity directly into the market, so quantitative easing monetary policy should be adopted. In fact, the United States is different from Japan, and the dollar is the reserve currency of the international monetary system, and the easing of the dollar not only has an impact on the American economy. There will also be spillover effects from the economic interaction between the United States and various countries. It is extremely necessary to analyze the spillover effects of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States. The article analyzes the economic indicators of the United States in the past ten years and the structure of the Federal Reserve balance sheet to determine whether the US economy is recovering or not. The paper also analyzes the effect of quantitative easing monetary policy and the positive and negative effects in the world. The author makes a complete research and systematic analysis on the spillover effect of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States. The main viewpoints are as follows:. The US monetary policy of quantitative easing has gradually improved the US economy. But it will not meet the expectations of the United States government and predict that the implementation of quantitative easing in the United States will not end, and that there will be a third, or even a fourth, round of quantitative easing. And. In the course of the sharp depreciation of the US dollar, various countries followed the US monetary policy of quantitative easing one after another, which is another big problem for the United States to recover its economy. It is also a big incentive for the possibility of global inflation in the future. In addition, the causes of spillover are analyzed. In order to deal with the "beggar-thy-neighbour" monetary policy, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how the Chinese monetary authorities should deal with the negative effects of the quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States. That is, while maintaining the stability of RMB exchange rate, the Chinese monetary authorities should liberalize the financial market and accelerate the internationalization of RMB exchange rate, which is an important measure to get rid of excessive reliance on US dollar. In terms of domestic economy, it is suggested that the central bank should coordinate with government policies, vigorously develop rural finance and pension finance, provide credit support to China's soft environment, and strengthen the supervision of the liquidity of the securities market. To avoid international hot money from real estate speculation to the Chinese stock market, so that China's real economy can steady and rapid growth, virtual economy coordinated healthy development.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F827.12;F124

【引证文献】