基于生命周期理论的居民家庭金融资产结构影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 11:00

本文关键词：基于生命周期理论的居民家庭金融资产结构影响因素研究　出处：《南京农业大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国国民经济总量一直以10%以上的增长率持续增长,国民收入的分配不断地向居民部门倾斜,居民金融资产迅速增长。同时,老龄化程度不断加重以及出生率不断下降使得我国人口结构也在发生着显著的变化,人口结构的变化对经济社会产生了重要影响。本文基于生命周期理论,研究居民家庭生命周期变化对居民金融资产结构的影响,以期为应对人口老龄化以及优化居民金融资产结构提供一些借鉴。经典的生命周期假说和生命周期投资理论都证明了年龄对于家庭消费和投资组合重要影响,随后的许多学者的研究也发现居民资产组合具有生命周期特征。本文以生命周期理论为基础,首先理论分析了居民金融资产结构的影响因素；其次,在宏观层面上分析了我国居民金融资产结构的生命周期特征；最后在微观层面上以江苏省居民家庭为调查对象,建立家庭金融资产结构的生命周期模型,使用Tobit模型实证分析居民家庭金融资产结构的影响因素,主要得出以下结论：第一,从宏观居民金融资产结构来看,我国居民金融资产结构表现出明显的生命周期特征：随着我国中年人口占比的增长,居民金融资产中风险资产占比也逐渐增长；随着我国老年人口占比的增长,居民持有的储蓄在居民金融资产中的比例不断减少。第二,从江苏省家庭金融资产结构影响因素的实证分析结果来看,居民家庭金融资产结构的生命特征显著。随着家庭生命周期的发展,居民家庭持有储蓄存款的比例会先减少后增加,对于风险资产的持有比例在家庭生命周期内则呈现出倒“U”型,表现出先增加后减少的形态。家庭投资决策者的受教育程度在一定程度上影响家庭风险资产的持有但是对储蓄资产的持有影响不显著。第三,微观家庭的实证分析结果还可以看出,家庭财富、住房、家庭负担人口数以及社会保障、地区因素都对居民家庭金融资产结构有重要的影响。随着家庭的财富的增长,居民储蓄占比会减少而风险资产的持有比例会增加；住房对于居民风险资产的持有表现出明显的“挤出”效应；家庭负担人口数与家庭金融资产中储蓄存款占比正相关,与风险资产的持有比例负相关；社会保障健全的家庭相对而言持有的储蓄占比较低；家庭所处的地区因素会显著影响家庭风险资产的占有比例,城市居民相对农村居民而言持有的风险资产比例更高。根据以上研究结论,本文提出以下政策建议：第一,对政府处理老龄化问题提供新思路。第二,推进商业银行改革创新。第三,稳定和控制房价仍然十分必要。第四,完善农村金融和保障体系的建设。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the total amount of China's national economy has been growing at a rate of more than 10%, the distribution of national income has been continuously tilted to the residents' departments, and the financial assets of the residents have increased rapidly. The increasing aging and declining birth rate make the population structure of our country also have a significant change, the change of population structure has an important impact on the economy and society. This paper is based on the life cycle theory. This paper studies the influence of household life cycle changes on the structure of residents' financial assets in order to provide some reference for coping with the aging of the population and optimizing the structure of residents' financial assets. The classical life cycle hypothesis and life cycle investment theory both prove that age plays an important role in household consumption and portfolio. Subsequently, many scholars also found that the resident asset portfolio has the characteristics of life cycle. Based on the theory of life cycle, this paper firstly analyzes the influencing factors of the structure of resident financial assets. Secondly, it analyzes the life cycle characteristics of Chinese residents' financial assets structure on the macro level. Finally, taking the household of Jiangsu Province as the survey object at the micro level, the life cycle model of the household financial assets structure is established, and the influencing factors of the household financial asset structure are analyzed empirically by using Tobit model. The main conclusions are as follows: First, from the macro resident financial asset structure, the resident financial asset structure of our country shows obvious life cycle characteristics: with the increase of the proportion of middle-aged population in our country. The proportion of risk assets in residents' financial assets also increased gradually; With the increase of the proportion of the elderly population, the proportion of the resident's savings in the resident's financial assets is decreasing. Second, from the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of the household financial assets structure in Jiangsu Province, we can see that the life characteristics of the household financial assets structure are significant, and with the development of the family life cycle. The proportion of households holding savings deposits will decrease first and then increase, and the proportion of risky assets will show the inverted "U" type in the household life cycle. The educational level of household investment decision makers affects the holding of household risk assets to a certain extent, but it has no significant impact on the holding of savings assets. Third, the empirical analysis of micro-families can also see that family wealth, housing, family burden population and social security. Regional factors have an important impact on the structure of household financial assets. With the increase of household wealth, the proportion of household savings will decrease and the proportion of risk assets will increase. Housing has obvious "crowding out" effect on resident's risky assets. The number of household burden population is positively related to the proportion of savings deposits in household financial assets, and negatively related to the proportion of risk assets. Households with sound social security hold relatively low levels of savings; The proportion of risky assets held by urban residents is higher than that of rural residents. According to the above conclusions, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: first, to provide new ideas for the government to deal with the aging problem; second, to promote the reform and innovation of commercial banks. Third, to promote the reform and innovation of commercial banks. Stability and control of housing prices is still very necessary. 4th, improve rural financial and security system construction.
【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.5

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