人民币升值对我国纺织服装行业出口的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 11:50

本文关键词：人民币升值对我国纺织服装行业出口的影响研究　出处：《华东交通大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济全球化和贸易自由化的发展，世界各国之间的联系越来越密切。汇率成为各国之间贸易结算的重要媒介，经济危机通过汇率的传递影响世界各国，汇率的变动成为影响一国经济稳定的重要因素之一。随着中国经济全球化的发展，人民币汇率的变动成为国际社会和学术界的普遍关注的焦点。特别是人民币汇率改革以后，人民币一直处于升值趋势之中，有关人民币升值对我国经济影响的研究日益受到学者的关注。但是，就目前的研究来看，主要是集中在人民币升值对我国宏观经济的影响，比如对我国经济结构、对外贸易、就业水平，以及整体的经济发展和稳定的影响。对于人民币升值对我国某一个具体行业的影响的研究还很匮乏。作为传统经济的纺织服装业是我国国民经济的支柱产业，，在繁荣经济、稳定就业、扩大经济贸易、增加国民收入等方面发挥着重要的作用。但随着我国经济的发展，特别是外部金融危机以及国内生产要素价格的上升、人民币汇率的不断升值等方面的影响，原由依赖廉价劳动力、原材料和国内市场等比较优势已不复存在。我国纺织服装行业的发展面临着前所未有的困境。本文从人民币汇率升值的角度，分析人民币升值对我国纺织服装出口行业所带来的的影响。首先通过对汇率相关理论的介绍，论述了我国汇率的改革历程，分析影响人民币汇率升值的背景因素。然后，简要分析我国纺织服装出口行业的现实环境、行业特点以及对纺织服装行业相关产业链的发展状况。最后，通过理论和实证两个方面分析人民币升值如何对我国纺织出口行业产生影响。在理论方面，通过国际贸易的相关理论，分析人民币升值对我国纺织服装出口行业影响的传导机制，在通过简单的贸易供需模型分析人民币升值的影响。在实证方面，本文利用协整检验技术和ECM模型分析人民币升值与我国纺织服装出口之间的关系。说明人民币升值是导致我国纺织服装出口变化的重要原因。通过以上的研究分析，就人民币升值对我国纺织服装出口行业的影响，提出一些建议和措施，希望我国的纺织服装出口企业借此机会实现企业的科技创新和技术升级，提高企业的国际竞争力，进而提高我国整个纺织服装出口行业的国际竞争力。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization and trade liberalization, the relationship between countries in the world is getting closer and closer. The exchange rate has become an important medium of trade settlement between countries, and the economic crisis has affected the countries of the world through the transmission of exchange rate. The change of exchange rate has become one of the important factors affecting a country's economic stability. With the development of China's economic globalization, the change of RMB exchange rate has become the focus of the international community and academic circles, especially after the RMB exchange rate reform, the RMB has been in the trend of appreciation. Scholars pay more and more attention to the impact of RMB appreciation on China's economy. However, as far as the current research is concerned, it is mainly focused on the impact of RMB appreciation on China's macro economy. For example, the impact on China's economic structure, foreign trade, employment level, and overall economic development and stability. As a traditional economy, textile and clothing industry is the pillar industry of our national economy. It is developing economy, stabilizing employment and expanding economic trade. Increasing national income plays an important role, but with the development of our economy, especially the external financial crisis and the rise of the price of domestic factors of production, the RMB exchange rate continues to appreciate and so on. Due to the reliance on cheap labor, the comparative advantages of raw materials and domestic market no longer exist. The development of textile and clothing industry in China is facing unprecedented difficulties. From the perspective of RMB exchange rate appreciation, this paper analyzes the impact of RMB appreciation on China's textile and clothing export industry. Firstly, through the introduction of exchange rate theory, it discusses the course of exchange rate reform in China. This paper analyzes the background factors that affect the appreciation of RMB exchange rate. Then, it briefly analyzes the real environment, industry characteristics and the development of the textile and clothing industry related industry chain in China's textile and clothing export industry. This paper analyzes how RMB appreciation affects China's textile export industry through theoretical and empirical analysis. In theory, through the relevant theories of international trade, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of the impact of RMB appreciation on China's textile and clothing export industry. Through a simple trade supply and demand model to analyze the impact of RMB appreciation. This paper analyzes the relationship between RMB appreciation and China's textile and clothing exports by using cointegration test and ECM model, which shows that RMB appreciation is an important reason for the change of China's textile and garment exports. Through the above research and analysis, this paper puts forward some suggestions and measures on the impact of RMB appreciation on China's textile and clothing export industry. It is hoped that the textile and garment export enterprises of our country will take this opportunity to realize the scientific and technological innovation and technological upgrading of the enterprises, improve the international competitiveness of the enterprises, and then enhance the international competitiveness of the whole textile and clothing export industry of our country.
【学位授予单位】：华东交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F426.81;F752.62;F224

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