价值投资在中国A股市场的应用与策略研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 20:27

本文关键词：价值投资在中国A股市场的应用与策略研究　出处：《西北农林科技大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：与欧美发达国家相比，我国证券市场正逐步由萌芽阶段转向快速成长阶段，投资理念的转型是投资者对股市懵懂到理性投资的重要标志。当今世界主要有五种投资模式并占据统治地位：价值投资、增长投资、指数投资、技术投资、组合投资，经众多实证研究证明，大多数情况下价值投资可以获取超额收益。本文第一部分从国内外证券市场的现状出发，把二者的研究程度进行比较，发现国内市场在价值投资的研究方面仍旧较为欠缺。本章将论文的研究背景、研究目的及研究方法进行陈述，说明价值投资正在当今的中国已经形成趋势。第二部分从价值投资的起源出发，介绍与价值投资相关的相关概念以及价值投资的理论基础，对绝对估值与相对估值的基本方法做了详细描述，为下文的实证分析做好了基础准备。介绍中国A股投资环境以及投资策略的演变过程，指出价值投资策略已成为中国庄股时代结束以后一种主流的投资策略；同时指出中国A股市场已经具备实施价值投资策略的相关条件，价值投资未来将在中国股市形成一定的趋势。第三部分把沪深上市公司的数据分别统计，从具体的研究指标B/M、P/E进行实证分析，得出市净率、市盈率与股票收益的关系。通过B/M与P/E的实证分析，我们发现价值投资的应用同样是适用于长期投资，从短期的效果来看，大牛市下，短期收益明显，因而，，广大投资者获取稳定收益的好方法是长期持有质地好的股票。第四部分，将国内经济周期的变动规律进一步分析，发现波峰波谷中，经济对证券市场的影响是巨大的，因此在适当的时机选择合适的上下游行业是非常重要的。我们发现，低PE与低PB的股票会在整体行情中的相对底部出现，另外，选择通胀下行，经济软着陆时期正是建仓的好时机。第五部分通过前文对经济环境、行业环境以及具体的财务指标的分析，本文以有色金属行业为背景，根据经济周期选择最具投资价值的黄金行业进行分析，并从行业板块中选择低估值的山东黄金，证明该方法在股市投资策略中的可行性。综合以上各章节的实证分析进行总结，得出了价值投资在A股市场是可行的，并通过国内外理论与实践的方法，总结出适合A股市场投资的新方法，为机构及广大投资者对股票市场的研究进一步提出了正确的方法。
[Abstract]:Compared with the developed countries in America and America , China ' s securities market is gradually changing from the embryonic stage to the rapid growth stage . The transformation of investment philosophy is an important sign of investors ' understanding of the stock market . There are five kinds of investment modes in the world and occupy dominant position : value investment , growth investment , index investment , technology investment and portfolio investment . The first part of this paper , based on the present situation of the stock market at home and abroad , compares the research degree of the two , and finds that the domestic market is still deficient in the research of value investment . The second part , based on the origin of value investment , introduces the relevant concepts related to value investment and the theoretical basis of value investment , and makes a detailed description of the basic methods of absolute valuation and relative valuation . It points out that the value investment strategy has become the mainstream investment strategy after the end of the Chinese estate . In the third part , the data of Shanghai - Shenzhen listed companies are statistically analyzed , and the relationship between market ratio , earnings ratio and stock return is obtained from the empirical analysis of the specific research index B / M and P / E . Through the empirical analysis of B / M and P / E , we find that the application of value investment is also applicable to long - term investment . In the short - term effect , the short - term benefit is obvious under the bull market . Therefore , the good way for the investors to obtain the stable income is long - term holding of good stocks . In the fourth part , the fluctuation law of domestic economic cycle is further analyzed , and it is found that the influence of the economy on the security market is huge in the wave valley of the wave crest , so it is very important to select the right upstream and downstream industry at the right time . We find that the low PE and the low PB stock will appear at the opposite bottom of the whole market . In addition , it is the good time to select inflation and economic soft landing . In the fifth part , through the analysis of economic environment , industry environment and specific financial indicators , this paper analyzes the gold industry with the most investment value according to the economic cycle , and selects the low valuation Shandong gold from the industry plate , and proves the feasibility of the method in the stock market investment strategy . Based on the conclusion of the empirical analysis of the above chapters , it is concluded that the value investment is feasible in the A - share market , and the new method suitable for the investment of the A - share market is summarized through the domestic and foreign theories and practices , and the correct method is put forward for the research of the stock market by the institution and the general investors .

【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51

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