我国地区间资本流动能力的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 16:37

本文关键词：我国地区间资本流动能力的实证研究　出处：《山东大学》2011年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,伴随着我国经济体制的改革,我国经济有了高速的增长,人民的收入水平不断提高,随着经济的发展,我国经济中存在的问题也逐渐显现出来,有学者认为,资本的地区性市场分割是中国金融体系的一个致命缺陷,这在很大程度上降低了我国资本的使用效率,限制了我国经济的发展。基于此问题的提出,本文拟就我国地区间的资本流动能力进行实证研究。通过对前人的研究进行文献综述发现,进行资本在国际资本市场的流动性研究时,普遍使用的方法为储蓄-投资检验法,即F-H方法,同时,该方法被广泛应用于检验资本在一个国家内部的流动程度。此外,储蓄保留系数还会受到经济增长率、经济规模、开放度、人口年龄构成等因素的影响。本文采用储蓄-投资检验法,首先对全国范围内我国储蓄保留系数的时间趋势进行检验,发现改革开放以来,我国地区内部资本的流动程度有一个明显的先减小后增大的趋势,这与我国的经济体制转型以及制度变迁具有很大的关系。其次,本文就我国东、中、西三个地区间的资本流动程度以及资本流动规模进行分析,实证结果表明我国中部地区的资本流动程度最弱,东部和西部地区的资本流动程度最强并且基本持平,西部地区的资本为大规模流出状态,而东部地区呈现资本大规模流入的状态,这主要是因为我国东部地区具有较高的经济发展水平,我国东部沿海地区具有较好的地理优势,拥有更多的较高投资收益率的项目和企业,吸引了资本的大规模流入。最后,文章利用面板门限模型检验了我国地区间资本的流动程度,与国内已有的研究相比,在采用了经济增长率、开放度、经济规模做门限变量的基础上,又增加了市场化程度和金融发展程度这两个门限变量,分别研究他们对FH系数的影响。通过检验门限变量对资本流动能力的影响,得出的结论为：一个省的经济增长和开放度的变化与资本在国内省际间的流动程度大致呈现负相关关系,市场化程度的变动也与资本在地区间的流动性能力负相关,而一省经济规模越大或者金融发展程度的提升,会促进我国省际间的资本流动能力,表现为正相关关系。该研究结果与我国经济发展的历史轨迹具有高度相关关系,该结果只适用于我国经济发展的特殊阶段,本文就不同的门限变量与FH系数变化的相互关系提出了一定的解释,并且就我国改革开放进程中存在的问题提出了相关意见和建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the reform of our economic system, China's economy has a rapid growth, the level of income of the people continue to improve, with the economic development, China's economic problems are gradually emerging. Some scholars believe that the regional market segmentation of capital is a fatal defect of China's financial system, which greatly reduces the efficiency of the use of capital in China. Based on this problem, this paper intends to make an empirical study on the regional capital mobility in China. Based on the literature review of previous studies, it is found that the common method of capital liquidity research in the international capital market is the savings-investment test, namely, the F-H method, at the same time. The method is widely used to test the degree of capital flow within a country. In addition, the savings retention coefficient is also affected by the economic growth rate, economic scale, openness, age composition of the population and so on. In this paper, the savings-investment test method is used to test the time trend of the saving retention coefficient in the whole country, and it is found that since the reform and opening up to the outside world. The degree of capital flow in our country has a tendency of decreasing first and then increasing, which is closely related to the economic system transformation and institutional change in our country. Secondly, this paper analyzes the degree of capital flow and the scale of capital flow in the east, middle and west of China. The empirical results show that the capital flow in central China is the weakest. The capital flow of the eastern and western regions is the strongest and basically equal, the capital of the western region is a large-scale outflow state, while the eastern region presents a state of large-scale capital inflow. This is mainly due to the eastern region of China has a higher level of economic development, China's eastern coastal areas have a better geographical advantage, with more higher investment rate of return of projects and enterprises. Attracted a large inflow of capital. Finally, the paper uses the panel threshold model to test the degree of inter-regional capital flow in China, compared with the existing domestic research, on the basis of using the economic growth rate, openness, economic scale as the threshold variables. It also increases the threshold variables of marketization and financial development, and studies their influence on FH coefficient respectively. Through testing the influence of threshold variables on capital flow capacity. The conclusion is that the change of economic growth and openness of a province has a negative correlation with the degree of capital flow between provinces. The change of the degree of marketization is also negatively related to the mobility of capital among regions, and the larger the economic scale of a province or the improvement of the degree of financial development, the greater the mobility of capital among provinces in China. The research results have a high correlation with the historical track of China's economic development, and the results are only applicable to the special stage of economic development in China. This paper gives a certain explanation of the relationship between different threshold variables and the change of FH coefficient, and puts forward some relevant opinions and suggestions on the problems existing in the process of reform and opening up in China.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：F124;F224

【引证文献】