我国黄金储备量适度规模研究

发布时间：2018-01-15 04:02

本文关键词：我国黄金储备量适度规模研究　出处：《内蒙古大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国连续几年出现的国际收支双顺差以及美国的量化宽松政策导致的全球流动性过剩,使得我国外汇储备持续高速增长,成为了世界上最大的外汇储备国家。截止2011年底,已达到31811亿美元。充足的国际储备可以维持一国政府的对外信用,更能体现政府的偿债能力,但过度的外汇储备就会带来较高的机会成本以及汇率变动带来的贬值压力。当前美元不断贬值,而美元储备在我国国际储备中占比过大,这样单一的储备结构便使得我国国际储备面临严重的缩水风险。本文首先分析了黄金随着国际货币体系的变迁在国际储备中地位的变化,以及黄金作为国际储备的优势和不足；并分析了我国黄金储备规模的现状及其国际比较；接着综合运用马科维茨资产组合理论、海勒——奈特模型和杜利模型计算出我国国际储备中黄金储备的合理比例,得出目前我国黄金储备占国际储备的比重应该在3%-9%之间；随后探讨了我国增加黄金储备的现实意义,其意义主要体现在有利于降低外汇储备资产的汇率风险,缓解流动性过剩状况,有助于人民币走向国际化,提高国家资信度,防范金融安全；然后探讨了我国实现黄金储备适度规模的多元化路径。
[Abstract]:The double surplus of balance of payments and the excess of global liquidity caused by the quantitative easing policy of the United States for several years in a row make the foreign exchange reserve of our country continue to grow at a high speed. It has become the largest foreign exchange reserve country in the world. As of end of 2011, it has reached three tillion one hundred and eighty-one billion one hundred million US dollars. Sufficient international reserves can maintain a government's foreign credit and better reflect the government's solvency. However, excessive foreign exchange reserves will bring higher opportunity cost and depreciation pressure caused by exchange rate changes. At present, the dollar is continuously devaluing, and the dollar reserve accounts for too much in China's international reserves. Such a single reserve structure will make China's international reserves face a serious risk of shrinking. This paper first analyzes the change of the position of gold in the international reserve with the change of the international monetary system, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of gold as the international reserve. The present situation of China's gold reserve and its international comparison are also analyzed. Then the rational proportion of gold reserves in China's international reserves is calculated by using Markowitz portfolio theory, Heller-Knight model and Dully model. It is concluded that the proportion of gold reserves in international reserves should be between 3% and 9%. Then it discusses the practical significance of increasing gold reserves in China, which is mainly reflected in the benefits of reducing the exchange rate risk of foreign exchange reserve assets, alleviating the excess liquidity situation, and helping the RMB to internationalize. To improve the confidence of state capital and to guard against financial security; Then it discusses the diversified path to realize the moderate scale of gold reserves in China.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

【引证文献】