我国入境旅游外汇收入结构实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-19 18:42

本文关键词： 入境旅游消费结构计量经济学模型灰色关联分析灰色预测　出处：《西南财经大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国入境旅游产业取得了飞速发展。2011年1-11月,通过各种方式进入我国大陆的外籍游客已经达到1.24亿人次,创造了430.35亿美元的入境旅游外汇收入,入境旅游游客人数和创汇分别实现了1.16%、2.01%的增长。成功跻身世界第四大旅游出口国,入境旅游外汇收入跻身世界前十。入境旅游在我国国际服务贸易领域占有非常重要的地位,并保持了持续较快地增长势头,这为“十二五”期间大力发展入境旅游奠定了良好的基础。继续加快入境旅游市场健康快速稳定的发展,不仅符合国家的宏观经济战略和政策,也符合当今低碳,环保,可持续发展的国际潮流,因此,科学严谨的规划在入境旅游发展中扮演着重要角色。从理论上来说,入境旅游消费主要体现在消费结构的研究上。要持续提高入境旅游消费,促进外汇收入增长,可以从研究入境旅游消费结构的特点和变化趋势入手。通过入境旅游消费结构的特点和变化趋势的研究,不仅能够对入境旅游的消费变化规律和发展趋势有充分的把握,同时也能够对消费需求的热点和发展方向有所了解,而且还能够针对消费需求的热点调整产业结构,优化行业发展,确保入境旅游行业健康可持续发展,避免重复投资,过度建设等问题的发生。文章首先选取《中国旅游统计年鉴》披露的1999-2010年我国入境旅游外汇收入及其结构的数据,运用计量经济学理论选取变量,建立模型,进行相关参数和模型的检验,得出合理的经济学意义解释;其次针对1999-2010的我国入境旅游结构数据进行合理的分组,划分阶段,并借助灰色关联分析方法,根据关联度值的大小比较分析入境旅游消费结构,并对影响入境旅游消费结构的各个因素从作用机理到量化表现做了理论和实际方面的说明。然后使用了灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测未来五年的入境旅游消费发展趋势和相关数据。文章最后针对前文实证分析得出的结论,针对我国入境旅游市场现存的问题和面临的挑战、处于的市场竞争环境与机遇,对优化我国入境旅游消费结构、提升入境旅游创汇能力,保持产业健康可持续发展,提供了具有建设性的政策建议,力求达到所提的政策建议的科学性,指导性与务实性。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's inbound tourism industry has made rapid development. 2011, from January to November, through a variety of ways to enter the mainland of foreign tourists have reached 124 million. It has generated US $forty-three billion thirty-five million in inbound tourism foreign exchange earnings, and the number of inbound tourists and foreign exchange earnings have increased by 1.16% and 2.01%, respectively, and have been successfully ranked among the 4th largest tourist exporters in the world. The foreign exchange income of inbound tourism ranks among the top 10 in the world. Inbound tourism occupies a very important position in the field of international service trade in China and has maintained a sustained and relatively rapid growth momentum. This has laid a good foundation for vigorously developing inbound tourism during the 12 th five-year Plan. Continuing to speed up the healthy, rapid and stable development of the inbound tourism market is not only in line with the country's macroeconomic strategy and policies, but also with the current international trend of low-carbon, environmentally friendly and sustainable development. Scientific and rigorous planning plays an important role in the development of inbound tourism. Theoretically speaking, inbound tourism consumption is mainly reflected in the study of consumption structure. To promote the growth of foreign exchange income, we can start with the study of the characteristics and trends of inbound tourism consumption structure, and through the study of the characteristics and changing trends of inbound tourism consumption structure. Not only can we have a full grasp of the changing law and development trend of inbound tourism consumption, but also can understand the hot spots and development direction of consumer demand. Moreover, it can adjust the industrial structure according to the hot spot of consumer demand, optimize the industry development, ensure the healthy and sustainable development of inbound tourism industry, avoid repeated investment, excessive construction and other problems. Firstly, the paper selects the data of China's inbound tourism foreign exchange income and its structure from 1999 to 2010, and establishes the model by using econometrics theory to select variables. The relevant parameters and models are tested to get a reasonable explanation of economic significance; Secondly, according to the data of China's inbound tourism structure from 1999 to 2010, this paper carries on the reasonable grouping, divides the stage, and uses the gray correlation analysis method. The structure of inbound tourism consumption is analyzed according to the value of correlation degree. And the factors affecting the structure of inbound tourism consumption from the mechanism of action to quantitative performance of the theoretical and practical aspects of the explanation. Then the use of grey prediction model GM(1. 1) forecasting the development trend and related data of inbound tourism consumption in the next five years. Finally, the paper aims at the conclusions of the empirical analysis above and the existing problems and challenges facing the inbound tourism market in China. In the market competition environment and opportunities, it provides constructive policy suggestions for optimizing the structure of inbound tourism consumption, enhancing the ability of inbound tourism to earn foreign exchange, and maintaining the healthy and sustainable development of the industry. Strive to achieve the scientific nature of the policy recommendations, guidance and practicality.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F592;F832.6;F224

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