对中国适度外汇储备的测度

发布时间：2018-01-23 02:41

本文关键词： 外汇储备适度规模比例分析法储备需求模型成本-收益法　出处：《经济评论》2010年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：近年来,关于中国外汇储备的适度规模存在很大争论。本文在进行详细综述的基础上,首先运用四种比例分析法测算了中国外汇储备最低安全规模,发现近年来中国实际外汇储备已远超出最低安全规模。进一步地,我们根据中国具体国情,建立了外汇储备需求模型和成本-收益模型,并运用相关数据,分别测算了中国1985-2008年外汇储备适度规模区间的下限和上限。在将适度规模区间中值和实际外汇储备额进行比较后,本文发现,中国外汇储备规模在1994年以前严重不足,1994年外汇体制改革后至1998年期间在一个较正常的区间内波动,但自1999年起一直高于适度规模的上限并持续增多。最后,鉴于目前中国外汇储备远超出适度规模的上限,本文提出了调节中国外汇储备至适度规模的若干政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, there is a lot of controversy about the appropriate scale of China's foreign exchange reserves. On the basis of a detailed review, this paper first uses four kinds of proportional analysis method to calculate the minimum safe scale of China's foreign exchange reserves. It is found that China's actual foreign exchange reserves have far exceeded the minimum safe scale in recent years. Furthermore, according to the specific conditions of China, we have established a demand model for foreign exchange reserves and a cost-benefit model, and used relevant data. This paper calculates the lower limit and upper limit of the appropriate scale range of China's foreign exchange reserves from 1985 to 2008.After comparing the median value of the appropriate scale range with the actual amount of foreign exchange reserves, this paper finds out. The size of China's foreign exchange reserves was seriously inadequate before 1994 and fluctuated in a more normal range from 1994 to 1998 after the reform of the foreign exchange system. But since 1999, it has been above the modest limit and continues to grow. Finally, given that China's foreign exchange reserves currently far exceed the modest limit. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions for adjusting China's foreign exchange reserves to a moderate scale.
【作者单位】：南开大学经济学院;南开大学商学院;
【分类号】：F832.6
【正文快照】： 一、引言改革开放以来,尤其是1994年外汇体制改革以来,由于出口的迅猛增长和国际直接投资(FDI)流不断增多,中国国际收支经常项目和资本项目常年出现双顺差,外汇储备不断积累和增长。从图1可出,20世纪90年代初中国外汇储备量未有大幅增长。但自1994年开始用银行结售汇制取代外

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