人民币有效汇率与劳动力供给对加工贸易出口的影响

发布时间：2018-01-23 07:30

本文关键词： 人民币有效汇率劳动力供给加工贸易　出处：《复旦大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自1978年改革开放以来,30多年间中国取得了举世瞩目的成就,让整个社会包括每一个人都发生了翻天覆地的变化,很多人都说是一个奇迹。我们从这个奇迹的背后去探寻中国经济成功的主要原因不难发现,中国的成功起源于中国之外的世界潮流,中国搭上了全球化的便车。而出口的快速增长特别是加工贸易出口的快速增长是中国搭上全球化便车的具体表现形式。但近一段时间,中国的加工贸易出口似乎遇到了一些阻力和瓶颈。统计数据显示,我国加工贸易进出口总额占我国进出口贸易总额的比例呈现先上升然后回落的趋势,从20世纪80年代初的5.9%上升到1998年的53.4%达到最高点,然后逐渐回落,到2010年回落到38.95%。在中国年出口额登顶世界的时候,我们现在需要仔细研究一下,是那些因素导致中国的加工贸易出口的增长如此惊人,中国下一步该如何调整,才能使中国的加工贸易出口继续保持稳步发展。本文将从微观层面着手研究分析,对人民币有效汇率,劳动力供给(人口资源禀赋)等因素对中国的加工贸易出口的影响进行分析。收集了改革开放以来我国加工贸易出口额、世界银行统计的人民币有效汇率、在外商投资企业就业的人数的数据采用计量经济学的回归分析方法通过EVIEW5.0软件进行实证分析人民币有效汇率长期波动及我国劳动力供给状况对我国加工贸易出口总额的影响以及对加工贸易占我国总的外贸金额比例的影响。本文的实证研究不但对我们如何准确把握我国目前人民币汇率问题有着极大的帮助,而且对我们正确认识我国目前劳动力供给的状况有着深刻的意义,为我国调整相关政策提供借鉴。对我们去探寻如何有效保障加工贸易的健康发展的道路提供了决策的参考,史重要的是有助于为我国加工贸易转型升级指明方向,从而让加工贸易进一步为中国社会经济发展保驾护航。由于人民币汇率的不断升值和我国劳动力供给的日益趋紧,只有大力提高,增加对劳动力的教育和培训才能解决人民币汇率升值和劳动力供给数量上的趋紧对加工贸易出口带来的负面影响。科技创新和技术升级是提高劳动生产率的有效途径,这也可以从中国政府的中长期的科学与技术发展规划中看到,科学和技术已经成为中国保持可持续稳定的发展和向创新型国家转型的重要推动力。所以正确政策引导和政策支持是当务之急,例如可以给予劳动力密集型出口导向型的加工贸易小型企业科研投入的税收优惠和进口国外先进技术和设备的外汇低息贷款。加大对小型的出口导向型企业的科研投入和政策扶持,可以大大提高出口企业的劳动生产率,帮助出口企业(特别是加工贸易型企业)转型升级,从而最终劳动力紧张和人民币升值的压力,使我国出口保持可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Since 1978, since the reform and opening up, China has made remarkable achievements in more than 30 years, so that the whole society, including everyone, has undergone earth-shaking changes. Many people say it is a miracle. It is not difficult to find the main reasons behind this miracle for China's economic success, China's success originates from the world trend outside China. China has taken a free ride to globalization, and the rapid growth of exports, especially in processing trade, is a concrete manifestation of China's free ride to globalization. But it has been for some time now. China's export of processing trade seems to have encountered some obstacles and bottlenecks. Statistics show that the proportion of total import and export of processing trade to China's total import and export trade shows a trend of rising first and then falling back. It peaked at 53.4% in 1998 from 5.9% in early 1980s and then gradually fell back. By 2010, it had fallen back to 38.95.When China's annual exports reached the top of the world, we now need to look closely at the factors that contributed to the phenomenal growth in China's export of processing trade. How to adjust China's next step, so that China's export of processing trade to continue to maintain steady development. This paper will study and analyze the effective exchange rate of RMB from the micro level. This paper analyzes the influence of labor supply (population resource endowment) and other factors on China's export of processing trade. The effective exchange rate of RMB has been collected from China's export of processing trade since the reform and opening up and the World Bank. The data of the number of people employed in Foreign-funded Enterprises using the regression Analysis method of econometrics the empirical analysis of the long-term fluctuation of the effective exchange rate of RMB and the labor supply situation of our country through EVIEW5.0 software. The influence of the total export amount of processing trade and the proportion of processing trade to the total foreign trade amount of our country. The empirical study in this paper is not only helpful to us how to accurately grasp the RMB exchange rate problem at present in China, but also to the proportion of processing trade to the total foreign trade amount of China. . And for us to correctly understand the current situation of labor supply in China has a profound significance. For our country to adjust the relevant policies to provide reference for us to explore how to effectively ensure the healthy development of processing trade to provide a reference for decision-making. What is important is to point out the direction for the transformation and upgrading of China's processing trade, so that the processing trade can further protect China's social and economic development. Due to the continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the tightening of labor supply in China, it can only be greatly improved. Only by increasing the education and training of the labor force can we solve the negative impact on the export of processing trade caused by the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the tightening of the supply of labor. Scientific and technological innovation and technological upgrading are the effective ways to increase labor productivity. The way. This can also be seen in the long-term scientific and technological development plans of the Chinese Government. Science and technology have become an important driving force for China's sustainable and stable development and transition to an innovative country. Therefore, correct policy guidance and policy support are the top priority. For example, tax incentives that can be given to small enterprises in labor-intensive export-oriented processing trade and low-interest foreign exchange loans for importing advanced foreign technology and equipment. Research input and policy support. It can greatly increase the labor productivity of export enterprises, and help export enterprises (especially processing trade enterprises) to transform and upgrade, thus resulting in the tension of labor force and the pressure of RMB appreciation. To maintain sustainable development of China's exports.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F249.2;F752.62;F224

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