人民币升值对我国铜冶炼企业进口的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-24 19:25

本文关键词： 人民币升值铜冶炼企业铜精矿进口人民币实际有效汇率指数　出处：《青岛科技大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：从2005年7月我国进行汇率机制改革以来,人民币汇率一直保持升值趋势。随着美国经济低迷,启动QE3的可能性不断加大,相应的人民币进一步升值的可能性也在不断增加。根据一般的国际贸易理论,一国货币汇率变动对其进口贸易有很大的影响。随着近几年我国铜消费量不断增加,铜冶炼企业的产能也在不断扩张,铜精矿进口数量也在相应的逐年递增。因此,人民币汇率升值必将更大程度的影响我国铜冶炼企业的原料进口。本研究通过对人民币升值历史演进的介绍及升值原因的认真分析,推测出人民币汇率变动的发展趋势,并在此基础上,结合我国铜冶炼企业产业链现状及发展趋势,获取对研究问题的全面认识。同时运用现实推测、理论分析及实证分析等研究手段,对人民币升值对我国铜冶炼企业原料进口影响进行全面分析,得出如下研究结论：(1)人民币升值对铜冶炼企业原料进口数量有显著影响,同时也存在很显著的滞后效应；(2)我国铜冶炼行业有可能已经脱离经济基本面,盲目扩张产能；并根据所得研究结论,针对我国铜冶炼企业在原料进口的实际操作中所存在的问题,提出富有针对性的政策建议,如(1)慎重制定合同条款,灵活选择贸易合同；(2)合理选择融资渠道,保障铜精矿进口资金充裕；(3)做好铜精矿存货保值设计；(4)通过联盟手段加强在铜产业链中的地位
[Abstract]:Since the reform of exchange rate mechanism in July 2005, the RMB exchange rate has maintained a trend of appreciation. With the US economy in the doldrums, the possibility of starting QE3 has been increasing. The possibility of further appreciation of the RMB is also increasing, according to the general theory of international trade. The change of exchange rate of a country's currency has a great influence on its import trade. With the increase of copper consumption in China in recent years, the capacity of copper smelting enterprises is also expanding. The import quantity of copper concentrate is also increasing year by year. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate will affect the import of raw materials of copper smelting enterprises in China to a greater extent. Based on the introduction of the historical evolution of RMB appreciation and the careful analysis of the causes of RMB appreciation, this study inferred the development trend of RMB exchange rate change, and on this basis. Combined with the current situation and development trend of the industrial chain of copper smelting enterprises in China, we can get a comprehensive understanding of the research problems. At the same time, we can use realistic speculation, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis and other research methods. This paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the effect of RMB appreciation on the import of raw materials of copper smelting enterprises in China, and draws the following conclusions: (1) RMB appreciation has a significant impact on the import quantity of raw materials in copper smelting enterprises. At the same time, there is also a significant lag effect. (2) China's copper smelting industry may have deviated from the economic fundamentals and blindly expanded its production capacity; And according to the conclusions of the research, aiming at the problems existing in the actual operation of raw material import in the copper smelting enterprises in China, the paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions, such as the careful formulation of the terms of the contract. Flexible choice of trade contracts; 2) reasonable selection of financing channels to ensure adequate import funds for copper concentrate; (3) to do well the design of copper concentrate inventory preservation; Strengthening the position of copper industry chain by means of alliance
【学位授予单位】：青岛科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F426.32

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