中国金融风险预警机制研究

发布时间：2018-01-28 01:24

本文关键词： 金融风险预警指标体系 AHP层次分析法熵值法预警信号系统　出处：《重庆大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：20世纪70年代以来，随着金融自由化和全球化浪潮的推进，金融危机的影响范围和发生频率都呈明显扩大趋势。中国作为一个新兴市场国家，正逐步融入全球经济和金融体系中，各种金融风险及金融危机通过日益密切的国际间经济贸易往来在中国及全球其他各国之间相互传递，影响了中国经济、金融的稳定。为了有效地防止金融危机的爆发，做到“防患于未然”，构建符合中国国情的金融风险预警机制，对于中国经济的发展和金融系统的稳定至关重要。本文系统性地综述了现代金融危机理论以及国内外金融风险预警模型，并在借鉴国内外已有研究成果的基础上，通过对中国金融风险现状以及现有金融预警系统的分析，根据中国本国国情，，建立了金融风险预警机制：从宏观经济风险、银行体系风险、其他金融机构风险以及外部冲击风险四个方面，共选取20个预警指标，构建了中国金融风险预警指标体系；综合运用主观赋权法（AHP层次分析法）和客观赋权法（熵值法）确定指标体系中各指标的权重，避免了主、客观赋权法各自的片面性；运用预警信号系统，用灯号定性地显示金融风险状态。然后，本文根据我国金融风险预警指标体系的20个预警指标在1995~2011年17年的历史数据，应用上述金融风险预警机制验证我国过去17年的金融风险状况，以检验所构建的金融风险预警机制的准确性和合理性。实证结果表明，本文构建的金融风险预警机制能够较好地刻画中国金融风险状况，其预警结果符合中国的现实情况。最后，应用二次指数平滑法，预测这20个指标未来两年的指标值，并进一步预测出我国2012年及2013年两年的金融风险整体状况，同时，提出相应的风险防控的对策及建议，如：实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，加强银行贷款风险管理以及建立与我国金融体系信息化状况相适应的预警信息系统等。
[Abstract]:Since 1970s, with the development of financial liberalization and globalization, the scope and frequency of financial crisis have been expanding obviously. China is an emerging market country. Being gradually integrated into the global economic and financial system, various financial risks and financial crises have affected China's economy through increasingly close international economic and trade exchanges between China and other countries in the world. Financial stability. In order to effectively prevent the outbreak of financial crisis, to achieve "prevention", to build a financial risk early warning mechanism in line with China's national conditions. It is very important for the development of Chinese economy and the stability of financial system. This paper systematically summarizes the modern financial crisis theory and financial risk warning model at home and abroad, and on the basis of the existing research results at home and abroad. Through the analysis of the current situation of financial risk in China and the existing financial early warning system, according to the national conditions of China, the financial risk warning mechanism is established: from the macroeconomic risk, the banking system risk. Four aspects of other financial institutions risk and external impact risk, a total of 20 early warning indicators were selected to build a financial risk warning index system in China; The subjective weighting method and the objective weighting method (entropy method) are used to determine the weights of each index in the index system, thus avoiding the one-sidedness of subjective and objective weighting methods. Use the early warning signal system to show the financial risk status qualitatively with the light signal. Then. According to the historical data of 20 early warning indexes of financial risk warning index system in China from 1995 to 2011. The application of the financial risk warning mechanism to verify the situation of financial risk in China in the past 17 years to test the accuracy and rationality of the financial risk warning mechanism. The empirical results show that. The financial risk warning mechanism constructed in this paper can describe the situation of financial risk in China, and the warning results are in line with the reality of China. Finally, the quadratic exponential smoothing method is used. The index values of the 20 indexes in the next two years are predicted, and the overall situation of financial risk in China in 2012 and 2013 is further predicted. At the same time, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for risk prevention and control are put forward. For example, we should implement active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, strengthen the risk management of bank loans and establish an early warning information system adapted to the information situation of our financial system.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832;F224

【参考文献】