人民币汇率及其对日本美国进口价格的传递效应

发布时间：2018-02-13 23:32

本文关键词： 汇率传递效应中国日本美国　出处：《金融研究》2010年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文估计了人民币汇率变化对美国和日本从中国进口商品价格的传递效应。实证结果表明,人民币名义升值1%,将导致美国的进口价格短期上涨0.23%,长期上涨0.47%。日本从中国的进口价格对人民币和日元双边汇率的变化更为敏感。如果人民币兑日元名义汇率上升1%,日本的进口价格短期提高0.55%,长期则提高0.99%,具有完全的传递效应。这种高传递效应在食品、原材料、服装、制造和机械等不同类别的进口商品中也存在。但是,进一步分析表明:日本的高传递效应主要归因于中国钉住美元的汇率政策,而美元是中国对日本出口贸易的主要计价货币。在控制了计价货币因素后,自2005年7月以来人民币的累计升值并未传递到日本的总体进口价格或分类商品进口价格上。人民币汇率的这种低传递效应表明,人民币适度升值对中国的贸易顺差影响甚微。
[Abstract]:This paper estimates the transfer effect of RMB exchange rate changes on the prices of imports from China of the United States and Japan. A nominal appreciation of the RMB will lead to a short-term rise of 0. 23 and a long-term rise of 0. 47% in the United states. The price of Japanese imports from china is more sensitive to changes in the bilateral exchange rate between the yuan and the yen. If the yuan is on nominal terms against the yen. Japan's import price rose 0.55% in the short term, and 0.99% in the long run. It has a complete transmission effect. This high transmission effect is in food, Raw materials, clothing, manufacturing and machinery also exist in different categories of imports. However, further analysis shows that Japan's high transmission effect is mainly due to China's exchange rate policy of pegging to the US dollar. The dollar is the main currency in China's export trade to Japan. After controlling the currency factor, The cumulative appreciation of the yuan since July 2005 has not been passed on to Japan's overall import price or to the price of imports of classified goods. The low transfer effect of the yuan's exchange rate suggests that a moderate appreciation of the yuan has little impact on China's trade surplus.
【作者单位】：亚洲开发银行研究院;日本政策研究大学院大学;
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.62

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