流动性过剩、金融创新与金融危机

发布时间：2018-02-21 01:36

本文关键词： 金融危机流动性过剩金融创新再平衡金融监管　出处：《南开大学》2012年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2007年下半年美国次级房贷危机引发全球性金融危机，本文拟从宏观层面及微观层面剖析此次危机爆发的原因，并以国际资本流动性过剩影响的计量分析以及金融风暴中AIG、雷曼公司等典型案例作为佐证。本文还重新检视那些影响深远的主流宏观经济理论，发现明斯基的“金融不稳定论”可充分解释此次金融危机的形成。在宏观视角方面，分析全球自1990年开始出现流动性过剩现象，巨额的国际资本在各国间的频繁流动，世界经济一体化发展则为过剩资本提供了新的跨国投资和赢利机会，美国成为国际资本的最大流入国。以美元为核心的现行国际货币金融体制为美国维持庞大的经常项目逆差，也是导致全球经济严重失衡的主要根源。本文通过模型计量分析，采用普通最小二乘估计法进行回归，并通过回归系数的比较以及显着程度来验证关于流动性过剩与金融危机之间关系。由于全球不平衡一直扩大，先进国家透过日益发达的全球金融市场不断融通其经常帐逆差，也就是此一不平衡透过国际资本移动弥补。对国际社会而言，新兴经济体基于预防性动机的考虑，仍不断累积美元资产，，复因国际美元既为国家主权货币又为最重要的国际货币，从而成为国际金融秩序不稳定的因子。本文探讨了布雷顿森林协定的不足及国际货币体系的改革，指出美元的问题、超主权储备货币的可能性及区域经济的金融整合，并藉由IMF的治理改革与G20等国际政策协调，提供全球经济再平衡的发展方向。在微观的视角方面，随着金融创新的深入发展，美国已成为全球头号经济强国和金融行业发展的领导中心。在此次危机的爆发和传递过程中，资产证券化、以市定价的会计记账方法、以风险价值为基础的资产负债管理模式，以及杠杆化等金融创新扮演了十分重要的角色。在某种意义上说，次贷危机是对过度金融创新的一种清算。本文以雷曼兄弟公司、AIG公司、苏格兰皇家银行及巴克莱银行在此次金融危机的经历为佐证分析了金融创新对金融危机造成的影响，而这些问题的背后则是金融监管体制的漏洞。2010年7月美国实施《多德-弗兰克华尔街改革与消费者保护法案》，此金融监管改革方案反映的不仅是监管者，更是美国民众、法律界、学术界对此次金融危机的全面反思，标志着美国金融体系“去监管化”的结束，也成为全球金融监管改革的标竿。而在国际金融监管方面，具有全球性影响力的国际组织如IMF、BIS、G20等，就洞察危机根源、重塑监管理念以及改革监管体系等各个方面均提出了相关指导方针及政策建议。
[Abstract]:In 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States triggered the global financial crisis. This paper intends to analyze the causes of the crisis from the macro and micro aspects. The econometric analysis of the impact of excess international capital liquidity and the typical cases such as AIGand Lehman Corporation in the financial turmoil are taken as evidence. This paper also re-examines those far-reaching mainstream macroeconomic theories. Minsky's theory of financial instability can fully explain the formation of the financial crisis. From the macro point of view, the paper analyzes the phenomenon of excess liquidity in the world since 1990, the frequent flow of huge international capital among countries, and the development of world economic integration, which provides new opportunities for transnational investment and profit making of excess capital. The United States has become the largest inflow of international capital. The current international monetary and financial system, with the US dollar as the core, maintains a large current account deficit for the United States, which is also the main cause of the serious imbalance in the global economy. Using the ordinary least square estimation method, the correlation between excess liquidity and the financial crisis is verified by comparing the regression coefficients and the degree of significance. Advanced countries continue to finance their current account deficits through increasingly developed global financial markets, which is to compensate for this imbalance through international capital movements. For the international community, emerging economies are motivated by precautionary motives, The United States dollar continues to accumulate, and the international dollar is both a sovereign national currency and the most important international currency. This paper discusses the shortcomings of the Bretton Woods Agreement and the reform of the international monetary system, points out the problems of the US dollar, the possibility of super-sovereign reserve currencies and the financial integration of regional economies. And by the IMF governance reform and G20 and other international policy coordination, to provide a global economic rebalancing direction. From a micro perspective, with the further development of financial innovation, the United States has become the world's largest economic power and the leading center for the development of the financial industry. In the course of the outbreak and transmission of the crisis, asset securitization, Accounting methods based on market pricing, asset liability management models based on the value of risk, and financial innovations such as leverage play a very important role. The subprime mortgage crisis is a kind of liquidation of excessive financial innovation. This paper analyzes the impact of financial innovation on the financial crisis, based on the experience of Lehman Brothers and AIG, Royal Bank of Scotland and Barclays Bank in this financial crisis. In July 2010, the United States implemented the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which reflects not only regulators but also the American people. The comprehensive reflection of the legal and academic circles on the financial crisis marked the end of the "deregulation" of the US financial system and became a benchmark for global financial regulatory reform. And in the area of international financial regulation, International organizations with global influence, such as IMFBIS-G20, have put forward relevant guidelines and policy recommendations on understanding the root causes of the crisis, reshaping regulatory concepts and reforming the regulatory system.
【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F831.7;F831.59

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