非均衡条件下价格体系的动态分析

发布时间：2018-03-01 14:17

本文关键词： 资产价格汇率利率通货膨胀率　出处：《云南财经大学学报》2013年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：利用结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)研究中国资产价格、汇率、利率和通货膨胀率之间的关系,作为经济中最重要的价格体系,有必要研究清楚它们之间的相互作用及影响机制,尤其是现阶段中国存在外部的升值预期、内部的通货膨胀、资产价格不断上涨以及利率的长期低位运行,价格体系的长期非均衡影响着资源配置和中国经济的健康稳定发展,但国内外学者对这方面系统性的研究却并不多。计量结果表明:汇率升值预期、低利率和过高的通货膨胀都会促进资产价格上涨,可能产生资产泡沫,为适应升值预期而采取过度宽松的货币政策会使国内通货膨胀压力加大,资产价格上升,试图通过国内通货膨胀来调节实际汇率进而减轻升值压力的政策可能会适得其反。
[Abstract]:The structural vector autoregressive model (SVARM) is used to study the relationship among asset price, exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate in China. As the most important price system in the economy, it is necessary to study the interaction and influence mechanism between them. In particular, at this stage, China has external appreciation expectations, internal inflation, rising asset prices and long-term low interest rates. The long-term disequilibrium of the price system affects the allocation of resources and the healthy and stable development of China's economy. However, there are not many systematic studies on this field by domestic and foreign scholars. The results show that exchange rate appreciation is expected, low interest rates and excessive inflation will promote asset price increases, which may lead to asset bubbles. An overly loose monetary policy to accommodate expectations of appreciation will increase domestic inflationary pressures and asset prices, and attempts to adjust the real exchange rate through domestic inflation to mitigate appreciation pressures may backfire.
【作者单位】：对外经济贸易大学金融学院;
【分类号】：F822.5;F224

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