我国民间金融对经济增长及产业结构影响的研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 01:34

本文选题：民问金融　切入点：经济增长　出处：《安徽大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：长期以来,民间金融对经济发展的作用与其受到的待遇是不一致的。在经济发展的过程中,民间金融作为正规金融的补充,为中小企业提供融资的需求,并且在我国产业结构转型的过程中投资进入更多的领域,使得其对经济发展以及产业结构的调整都产生积极的影响。但是由于民间金融处于金融监管范围之外,存在一定的不规范和不安全因素,特别是一些灰色的民间金融对金融市场和整个社会产生不良的影响,使得政府对民间金融的态度一直没有明朗化。从一开始的打击取缔到逐渐的理性认识,却一直没有给民间金融合法化的地位。2012年温家宝总理在国务院常务会议上提出要建立温州市金融综合改革试验区,这表明民间金融的合理性、重要性已经受到了高度的重视,民间金融的积极作用也得到了肯定。国内外对民间金融的研究开始的比较早,相关的理论也比较完善。但是由于民间金融处于金融监管体系之外,具有隐蔽性的特点,所以在调查统计方面有一定的难度,导致民间金融的相关实证研究的难以进行。基于此,本文在前人研究的基础之上,独创性的运用间接的估算方法,采用1994-2010年的统计数据,对我国民间金融的规模进行估算,并用计量经济学的方法对民间金融的发展与经济增长及产业结构之间的关系进行了实证研究。所得结论对于更加全面的认识民间金融的作用,完善对民间金融规范发展途径都有重要的意义。本文首先是对关于民间金融的国内外文献和相关理论进行阐述和总结,并在理论的基础上结合我国具体国情,对民间金融在我国的发展情况进行重新划分,对其原因、作用进行重新梳理。接着提出测算全国民间金融规模的经济金融相对指数统计法,在建立相关理论假设的基础之上,运用收集整理所得的1994-2010年的经济金融相关数据,估算出我国民间金融的规模。然后是对我国民间金融与经济增长的影响关系作了实证研究,得出二者之间的关系模型。最终得出结论：民间金融发展与经济增长之间存在着长期协整关系并且具有显著的双向因果关系。证明了民间金融发展能促进了经济的增长,而经济的增长同样能带动民间金融的发展,两者之间是双向的拉动效应。证实了民间金融对经济发展的作用,也说明民间金融是随着经济的不断发展而发展。得出了与已有研究不一样的结论,即民间金融不会在经济发展中消失,而是会在经济发展中不断完善并朝着正规化的方向发展。同时做了我国民间金融与产业结构之间的实证研究,得出结论是：民间金融与第二产业之间是双向的因果关系；民间金融与第三产业之间只是单向的因果关系。运用全国数据得出的这个研究结论,说明本文在已有研究民间金融对区域产业结构影响的基础上,证实了我国全国范围内的民间金融的发展对我国产业结构调整的积极影响。这个结论对于我国正在开展的规范民间金融的实践活动有一定的参考指导意义。我国正在进行的产业结构升级调整的过程中,要加强重视民间金融的产业导向作用,正确引导其投资方向,发挥它的积极作用。最后是在得出研究结论的基础上对如何规范我国民间金融的发展提出一些对策建议。通过比较和借鉴其他国家和地区的民间金融发展模式,结合我国的经济发展体制和金融发展的实际情况,提出相关对策。首先要保证我国民间金融在发展的过程中拥有合法的法律地位,有相关的法律规范来监督、约束,然后在此基础上通过合理引导,最大程度的发挥民间金融对经济增长和产业结构调整的积极影响。
[Abstract]:For a long time, the role of Private Finance on economic development and the treatment is not consistent. In the process of economic development, as a supplement to formal finance of private finance, financing demand for small and medium-sized enterprises, and investment into more areas in the process of the transformation of China's industrial structure, which have a positive the impact on economic development and industrial structure adjustment. But due to informal finance outside the scope of financial regulation, there is no standard and some unsafe factors, especially the gray informal finance have adverse effects on the financial market and the whole society, the attitude of the Chinese government finance has not been clear from the start. Banning to rational knowledge gradually, but has not given the legalization of private finance status.2012 Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council executive meeting proposed to establish Wenzhou financial comprehensive reform pilot area shows that the rationality and importance of private finance has been highly valued, and the positive role of private finance has also been affirmed.
The domestic and foreign research on folk finance started relatively early, the related theory is also perfect. But due to informal finance outside the financial regulatory system, with hidden features, so there are some difficulties in investigation and statistics, the research result related empirical folk finance difficult. Based on this, this article on the basis of previous studies, using the original indirect estimation method of the statistics of 1994-2010 years, to estimate the scale of China's informal financial and econometric methods on the development of private finance and the relationship between economic growth and industrial structure by empirical research. The conclusion can give a more comprehensive understanding of the civil the role of finance, improvement has important significance to regulate the development of private financial channels.
This paper is about the folk financial literatures and related theories are elaborated and summarized, combined with China's specific national conditions on the basis of the theory, re division of informal financial development in our country, its causes, effects of re sort. Then a calculation of national folk financial scale economy and finance the relative index statistics, based on the related theoretical assumptions, using 1994-2010 years of economic and financial data collected from the estimate of the scale of China's informal financial.
Then the influence on folk finance and economic growth in China relations has made empirical study on the relationship model between the two. The final conclusion: between the folk financial development and economic growth have a long-term cointegration relationship and has significant two-way causal relationship. Shows that the financial development promotes economic growth. The development of economic growth also led to private finance, between the two is the pulling effect of bidirectional. Confirmed the effect of Informal Finance on economic development, also shows that private finance is developing with the development of economy. The research conclusion is not the same with the existing, namely private finance will not disappear in the economic development, but will improve and toward the normalization direction with the continuous development of economic development.
At the same time do empirical research between folk finance and industrial structure of our country, the conclusion is that between the informal finance and the second industry is a two-way causal relationship; a one-way causal relationship between the informal finance and the third industry. This research conclusion using national data obtained, based on the existing research shows that influence of Folk Finance on regional industry on the structure, confirmed the positive effect of our country's folk financial development on China's industrial structure adjustment. This conclusion has certain guiding significance for our country is carrying out the standard folk finance practice. China's industrial structure upgrading and adjustment of the ongoing process, to strengthen the industry oriented the importance of informal finance, the right to guide the direction of investment, play its positive role.
Finally on the basis of the research conclusion on how to regulate the development of informal finance in China put forward some countermeasures and suggestions. Through the comparison and reference of the folk financial development model of other countries and regions, combined with the actual situation of China's economic development and financial system development, put forward relevant countermeasures. First of all to ensure the legal status of private finance in China in the process of development with legal, legal norms related to supervision and restraint, then on the basis of reasonable guide, play the greatest degree of positive impact of Private Finance on economic growth and industrial structure adjustment.

【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832;F124;F121.3

【引证文献】