中国外汇储备增长与物价变动关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 11:48

本文选题：外汇储备　切入点：货币供给　出处：《华东师范大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在开放的经济环境下,输入型通胀时常发生,并通过需求溢出机制、价格机制和流动性机制的共同作用最终输入国内,其中流动性机制包括贸易型和资本型,具体反映为国际收支平衡表中经常项目与资本金融项目的变化,也即外汇储备总量的变化,流动性机制输入型通胀是指外汇储备增长加大了基础货币投放,进而产生通货膨胀。本文正是基于流动性机制,从货币性因素角度切入,探讨外汇储备快速增长对中国物价变动之间的关系。外汇储备过度积累是当前重要的经济热点问题之一,其过度增长对中国物价水平的变动的影响也成为重要的研究课题。本文全面论述了外汇储备增长对物价变动影响的传导机制,并从外汇储备的总规模和来源构成两方面,对中国外汇储备增长与物价变动的关系进行了实证研究。首先,从外汇储备总规模角度分析,外汇储备通过基础货币促使货币供给内生性增长,货币扩张效应又通过多种渠道传导至物价,实证分析显示,外汇储备对货币供给的影响是显著的,货币供给对物价变动的影响也同样是显著的,但货币供给的变动并没有完全传导至物价波动上,这是因为中国的货币供给向物价传导的过程由于受到利率管制等因素的影响而发生传导不畅的问题。而且,外汇储备总量变动会对物价波动产生直接的影响,但影响程度较小。其次,从外汇储备来源构成角度分析,外汇储备主要来源于三方面途径,即贸易顺差、FDI和热钱,三种来源构成产生的货币进入各自流通领域后分别发挥对物价的作用。通过实证分析和检验,发现三种途径对物价变动的影响程度并不一致,经常项目盈余对物价上涨的冲击不大,而资本和金融项目盈余则会对经济体系产生严重的冲击,扩大通货膨胀风险。在外贸向基本平衡格局发展的趋势下,目前中国的外汇储备的来源构成将会发生显著变化,外汇储备增长动力将逐渐由经常项目盈余向资本和金融项目盈余转化,这说明外汇储备规模扩张对物价变动的影响将愈加显著。
[Abstract]:In an open economic environment, imported inflation often occurs, and through the joint action of demand spillover mechanism, price mechanism and liquidity mechanism, the liquidity mechanism includes trade type and capital type. Specifically reflected in the changes in the current account and the capital financial account in the balance of payments account, that is, the change in the total amount of foreign exchange reserves, the liquidity mechanism of imported inflation means that the growth of foreign exchange reserves increases the base monetary investment. Based on the liquidity mechanism, this paper explores the relationship between the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves and the price changes in China from the perspective of monetary factors. Excessive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is one of the most important economic hot issues at present. The influence of its excessive growth on the change of China's price level has also become an important research topic. This paper comprehensively discusses the transmission mechanism of the influence of the growth of foreign exchange reserves on price changes, and from the total scale and source composition of foreign exchange reserves, This paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between the growth of China's foreign exchange reserves and price changes. Firstly, from the perspective of the total size of foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchange reserves promote the endogenous growth of money supply through the base currency. The effect of monetary expansion is transmitted to prices through a variety of channels. Empirical analysis shows that the influence of foreign exchange reserves on money supply is significant, and the influence of money supply on price changes is also significant. However, the change in money supply has not been completely transmitted to price fluctuations. This is because the process of transmission of money supply to price in China is affected by factors such as interest rate control. Moreover, The change of the total amount of foreign exchange reserves will have a direct impact on price fluctuations, but to a lesser extent. Secondly, from the perspective of the source composition of foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchange reserves mainly come from three ways, namely, trade surplus, FDI and hot money. The currency formed by the three sources plays a role in the price after entering the respective circulation field. Through the empirical analysis and test, it is found that the influence of the three ways on the price changes is not consistent. The impact of current account surpluses on price increases is small, while capital and financial account surpluses will have a severe impact on the economic system and increase the risk of inflation. At present, the source composition of China's foreign exchange reserves will change significantly, and the growth momentum of foreign exchange reserves will gradually shift from current account surplus to capital and financial account surplus. This shows that the expansion of foreign exchange reserves will have a more significant impact on price changes.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F726;F224

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