基于国际货币体系不对称的中国经济内外失衡研究

发布时间：2018-03-12 09:05

本文选题：国际货币体系　切入点：内外失衡　出处：《南开大学》2012年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，中国经济已深度融入全球经济金融一体化，中国已经成为国际货币金融体系等全球“游戏规则”的重要参与者，受这些“游戏规则”的影响与制约也越来越大。尤其在当今美元本位制下，中国不但面临巨大的国际收支失衡压力，而且内部经济严重扭曲。一方面中国对外长期巨额顺差，积累了全球最多的外汇储备，且随着美元不断贬值遭受了巨大的汇兑损失；另一方面国内消费长期低迷、储蓄“过剩”。与之极不对称的是，当今国际货币体系的中心国家美国，，却长期国际收支巨额赤字，并依赖美元的国际货币地位向中国等外围国家不断举债以支撑其国内过度消费。美元本位制下这种脆弱的“游戏”模式，最终导致了美国次贷危机的爆发。危机发生后，部分政府和学者把中、美经济内外失衡以及这次金融危机，归咎于中国依赖于出口拉动的外向型经济增长方式以及中国居民的高储蓄、低消费行为；而另外一些学者则从当今国际货币体系的弊端，深入考察中、美以及全球经济失衡的根源，并寄希望于通过国际货币体系改革缓解失衡，呼吁提升人民币在国际货币体系中的地位。本文所关心的问题：第一，以主权信用货币作为储备货币的国际货币体系，是否是当今全球失衡的重要原因？该国际货币体系对全球失衡调整有何影响？第二，在美元本位制下，人民币的非国际货币地位是否是导致过去几十年中国经济内外失衡的原因？若是，则随着人民币国际化程度不断提高及人民币的国际地位的上升，又会对中国经济的内外失衡调整有何影响？第三，为了缓解中国经济内外失衡及全球失衡，国际货币体系应如何改革？中国的占优策略是什么？为此，本文首先基于金融史实，分析从1880年以来国际货币体系演变表现出的不对称特征以及与全球失衡之间的关系，并重点考察了现行国际货币体系的不对称总体特征，以及在现行国际货币体系下中国经济内外失衡的经验事实。基于上述经验事实，本文先建立了基于国际收支货币分析法的理论分析框架，探讨了一国主权信用货币作为国际货币、其它主权国家货币为外围货币（非国际货币）的不对称国际货币体系安排下，是否会导致全球经济失衡；以及在这种不对称的国际货币体系下，全球失衡调整能否通过汇率调整顺利进行。研究表明，在以一国主权货币作为国际货币的不对称国际货币体系安排下，全球经济失衡将无法避免；并且，汇率调整将不再有效，国际货币体系中心国家任何针对国际收支调整的政策选择都将导致全球经济的不稳定，甚至诱发金融危机。在进行上述一般规律探讨的基础上，本文基于考虑了现行国际货币体系不对称因素的开放经济条件下的动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型和新开放经济宏观经济学（NOEM）模型，着重研究了在不对称的国际货币体系下，人民币的非国际货币地位、以及人民币的国际地位上升（即人民币的不断国际化）对中国经济内外失衡与调整的影响。结论表明：人民币的非国际货币地位，是导致中国经济内外失衡——国内消费长期不足、储蓄过高，国际收支长期顺差、外汇储备过度增长的重要原因；而人民币国际地位不断提升——人民币国际化程度不断提高，其它国家对人民币的需求不断增加，将有助于增加中国居民消费、减少过度储蓄、平衡国际收支，改善中国经济内外失衡状况。基于上述分析，本文又对国际货币体系改革方向、当前中国可行的最优政策选择进行了研究，并得到了如下主要政策建议：建立美元、人民币、欧元等为主要国际货币的多元国际货币体系，将是解决中国和世界经济内外失衡相对可行的最优方案；而对于中国而言，稳健推进人民币适度国际化、以及进行必要的制度建设，对于解决我国经济内外失衡具有重要意义。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the economy has Chinese depth into the global economic and financial integration, has become an important participant in the international monetary and financial systems Chinese global "game rules", the "rules of the game" and restrictive influence is growing. Especially in today's dollars of this system, China not only face a huge imbalance of payments pressure moreover, internal economic distortions. On the one hand, Chinese foreign long-term accumulated a huge surplus, the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, and with the continuous depreciation of the dollar suffered huge foreign exchange losses; on the other hand, the domestic consumption of long-term slump, "excess" savings. With very asymmetric, National Center of the international monetary system of the United States however, the long-term balance of payments deficits, and rely on the currency to Chinese peripheral countries such as debt to support its continued excessive domestic consumer dollars. Standard of this fragile "game" mode, eventually led to the outbreak of the subprime loan crisis. After the crisis, the government and scholars, the economic imbalances and the financial crisis, due to the China rely on export led export-oriented economic growth mode and the high savings China residents, low consumption behavior; while some scholars from the disadvantages of current international monetary system, in-depth study, beauty and global economic imbalances in the roots, and hope that through the reform of the international monetary system to ease the imbalance, to upgrade the status of RMB in the international monetary system.
This paper concerns: first, the sovereign credit currency as a reserve currency of the international monetary system, whether it is an important reason for today's global imbalances in the international monetary system? What is the effect of adjustment of global imbalances? Second, under the dollar standard, the renminbi non international currency is the cause of the past few decades of economic China the internal and external imbalance? If so, then increase with the degree of internationalization of the RMB rising and the international status of the RMB, how it will affect the China economic imbalance adjustment? Third, in order to alleviate the Chinese economic imbalances and global imbalances, the international monetary system should be how to reform? What is the dominant strategy for Chinese?
Therefore, this paper based on the financial facts, from the analysis of the asymmetry of the evolution of the international monetary system since 1880 shows and global imbalances between, and focuses on the general characteristics of the asymmetry of the current international monetary system, as well as in the existing international monetary system under unbalanced Chinese internal and external economic facts.
The experience is based on the fact, this article first established a monetary approach to balance of payments based on the theoretical analysis framework, discusses the sovereign credit currency as an international currency, other sovereign currency for outer currency (non international currency) for asymmetric international monetary system, will lead to global economic imbalances; and in this asymmetric international the monetary system, the global imbalance adjustment can be carried out smoothly through the adjustment of the exchange rate. The results show that in a country's currency as international monetary asymmetry of the international monetary system, the global economic imbalance will not be avoided; and the exchange rate adjustment will no longer be valid, center of the International Monetary System for any country to the balance of payments policy choice will lead to the instability of the global economy, and even induce financial crisis.
Based on the general rules of study, based on the consideration of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium factors of the current international monetary system asymmetry under the open economy condition (DSGE) model and the new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) model, focuses on the asymmetry of the international monetary system, non international currency status of RMB, rising and the international status of RMB (i.e. RMB internationalization) influence on the Chinese economic imbalances and adjustment. Conclusion: non international currency status of RMB, is the result of Chinese economic imbalances, domestic consumption is insufficient in the long term, high savings, long-term balance of payments surplus, an important reason for excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves and the international status of RMB; - constantly improve the degree of internationalization of the RMB rising demand for RMB in other countries continue to increase, will help increase To increase the consumption of Chinese residents, to reduce excessive savings, to balance the balance of payments and to improve the internal and external imbalance in China's economy.
Based on the above analysis, this paper on the reform direction of the international monetary system, the choice of China feasible optimal policy is studied, and obtained the following policy recommendations: the establishment of the RMB and Euro dollars, as the main international currency diversified international monetary system, will be China and resolve internal and external imbalances in the world economy is relatively feasible optimal solution; for China, steadily push forward the RMB internationalization, and the necessary system construction, to solve China's economic imbalances and has important significance.

【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F821;F224

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