我国农村居民家庭储蓄率变动的决定因素——基于1997—2006年省际Panel数据的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 03:56

本文选题：农村居民储蓄率　切入点：储蓄决定因素　出处：《农业技术经济》2010年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文运用1997—2006年省际动态面板数据研究了我国农村居民储蓄率变动的决定因素,并检验了永久收入假说(生命周期理论)对我国农村居民的适应性。实证研究发现,我国农村家庭储蓄率持续攀升以及时空差异的主要原因在于农村居民储蓄习惯(滞后储蓄率)、收入增长率、实际利率和宏观经济波动;但与人口年龄结构相关的因素对农村居民储蓄率变动影响较小,实证结果部分支持生命周期理论假说。因此,从中短期来看,我国农村居民家庭储蓄率依然较高,应设计出刺激农民消费、减少储蓄的中短期政策组合,同时从制度层面理顺农村储蓄资金转化为投资的渠道。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the determinants of the change of savings rate of rural residents in China by using inter-provincial dynamic panel data from 1997 to 2006, and tests the adaptability of permanent income hypothesis (life cycle theory) to rural residents in China. The main reasons for the rising rural household savings rate and the space-time difference are the rural residents' saving habits (lagging savings rate, income growth rate, real interest rate and macroeconomic fluctuation). However, the factors related to the age structure of the population have little effect on the change of rural residents' savings rate, and the empirical results partly support the life cycle hypothesis. Therefore, in the short and medium term, the household savings rate of rural residents in China is still relatively high. A combination of medium and short term policies should be designed to stimulate farmers' consumption and reduce savings. At the same time, the channel of transforming rural savings funds into investment should be straightened out from the system level.
【作者单位】：西南大学经济管理学院;中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院;中国国际扶贫中心;
【基金】：国家哲学社会科学基金课题(编号:08BJY146)的资助西南大学基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(编号:SWU0909513)的资助
【分类号】：F832.22;F224

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