迎合分析师盈余预测的上市公司盈余管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-16 03:05

本文选题：证券分析师　切入点：预测盈余　出处：《广西大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：证券分析师作为市场上投资者与融资者之间的纽带,在提高资本市场运作的效率方面发挥着重要的作用,正因如此,证券分析师的盈利预测也日渐成为市场上投资者决策的依据,而证券分析师的盈余预测行为及其影响效应也得到了国内外学者们的关注。国内外研究都发现：上市公司的管理层确实有为了规避负的“盈余意外”,发布消息来引导分析师盈余预测,同时,国外的研究还发现：上市公司管理层自己也会调整盈余来迎合证券分析师盈余预测,但具体的调整方向和调整程度如何,国内外的文献并没有深入的探讨。而本文的研究目的就是试图探究：我国的上市公司管理层是否会做出迎合分析师盈余预测的行为,同时,也探讨了具体的调整方向、程度以及关注程度不同的上市公司的不同表现。结果表明,我国上市公司的确会迎合分析师的盈余预测,证券分析师的盈余预测误差在0%-20%范围内的公司、大于20%的公司以及在-20%～0%范围内的公司都会为了迎合证券分析师的盈余预测而调增了实际盈余,且盈余预测误差在0%～20%范围内的公司比盈余预测误差大于20%的公司和盈余预测误差在-20%-0%范围内的公司调增实际盈余的程度都大；而证券分析师的盈余预测误差小于-20%范围内的公司,其调整实际盈余的行为则不显著。同时,受到关注程度高的公司比关注程度低的公司,迎合分析师进行盈余管理的程度要大。并且文章的研究结论通过了稳健性检验。
[Abstract]:As a bond between investors and financiers in the market, securities analysts play an important role in improving the efficiency of the operation of the capital markets. The earnings forecasts of securities analysts are also increasingly becoming the basis for investors' decisions in the market. However, the behavior of stock analysts' earnings forecasting and its effects have also attracted the attention of scholars at home and abroad. Domestic and foreign studies have found that the management of listed companies does issue information in order to avoid negative "earnings accidents". To guide analysts' earnings forecasts, At the same time, foreign studies have also found that the management of listed companies will adjust their earnings to meet the earnings forecast of securities analysts, but the specific adjustment direction and the adjustment degree, The research purpose of this paper is to try to find out whether the management of listed companies in our country will make the behavior that caters to the earnings forecast of the analysts, and at the same time, it also discusses the specific adjustment direction. Different performance of listed companies with different degree of attention and degree of attention. The results show that the listed companies in China do cater to the earnings forecast of the analysts, and the companies whose earnings forecast errors are in the range of 0-20%, Companies larger than 20%, and companies in the range of -20%, increase their real earnings in order to meet the earnings forecasts of securities analysts. Moreover, the companies with earnings prediction errors in the range of 0% or 20% are larger than those with earnings prediction errors greater than 20% and those with earnings prediction errors in the range of -20% -0%. But for companies whose earnings forecast error is less than -20 percent, the behavior of adjusting real earnings is not significant. At the same time, companies with a higher degree of attention have less attention than those with less attention. It caters to the degree of earnings management by analysts. And the research results of this paper pass the robustness test.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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