产出缺口估计不确定性问题综述——以对货币政策规则的影响为例

发布时间：2018-03-18 11:03

本文选题：产出缺口　切入点：实时数据　出处：《经济评论》2010年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：潜在产出和产出缺口是当局实施货币政策规则的重要依据。然而,不仅可观测的数据乃至于不可观测的产出缺口的准确值无法实时获得(即实时数据的不确定性),而且现有测算方法各有优缺点,很难说某一种方法测度出来的产出缺口最准确(即测算方法的不确定性)。这些都是导致潜在产出和产出缺口估计不确定性的根源。本文以这两个根源为线索对已有文献资料进行整理后发现:(1)产出缺口估计的不确定性问题可能影响到政府和公众的决策行为,使宏观经济政策的制定变得更加复杂,甚至会反过来加剧产出缺口的易变性,并最终降低宏观经济调控政策的效率;(2)当产出缺口不确定性增大时,降低产出缺口的权重以及保持经济政策的连续性和稳定性都具有十分重要的意义。
[Abstract]:Potential output and output gaps are an important basis for the authorities to enforce monetary policy rules. Not only are the exact values of observable data and even unobservable output gaps not available in real time (i.e., uncertainty of real-time data), but there are advantages and disadvantages of existing methods of measurement, It is difficult to say that the output gap measured by a certain method is the most accurate (that is, the uncertainty of the measuring method). These are the sources of uncertainty leading to the estimation of potential output and output gap. After sorting out the literature, we found that the uncertainty of the estimation of the output gap may affect the decision-making behavior of the government and the public. Making macroeconomic policy formulation more complex, even increasing the volatility of the output gap, and ultimately reducing the efficiency of macroeconomic adjustment policies when the uncertainty of the output gap increases, Reducing the weight of the output gap and maintaining the continuity and stability of economic policy are of great significance.
【作者单位】：广西财经学院金融系;中国人民银行南宁中心支行;
【基金】：广西财经学院人才引进(博士)科研启动基金的资助
【分类号】：F820

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