我国金融发展对贫困减缓的影响：理论与实证

发布时间：2018-03-18 11:28

本文选题：金融发展　切入点：贫困减缓　出处：《东北财经大学》2012年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：金融发展和贫困减缓一直是学者和政策制定者关注的问题。改革开放以来,我国的金融发展经历了从单一到多元的发展历程,无论是规模还是效率都有着显著的提高。以经典的M2/GDP计算,我国的金融发展规模由1978年31.8%上升到2011年的185%,远远超过了实际经济增长速度。从金融资产来看,总量稳定增长,由1978年的3257.4亿元增加到2010年的171.4万亿元,并由单一结构转变成由中央银行(中国人民银行)、政策性银行、国有独资商业银行、其他商业银行、非银行金融机构、股票市场和债券市场等构成多元的金融体系,大大的增加了金融服务获得的可能性。另外,不可忽视的实际情况是我国的贫困与贫困减缓问题。作为世界上最大的发展中国家,贫困仍是我国面临的重要问题之一,因此,我国一直致力于贫困减缓工作,并取得了突出的成就。根据我国官方统计标准,我国绝对贫困人口从1978年的2.5亿下降至2010年的2688万人,贫困发生率从1978年的30.7%下降到2010年的2.8%,年平均约下降0.845%。减贫效果的取得得益于我国的减贫措施,其中金融发展减贫的作用不可忽视,从早期的信贷扶贫到现阶段的小额信贷、保险、微型金融等,在贫困减缓中起到了不可替代的作用,但由于如经济发展水平、初始收入水平、自然条件、地理位置、教育水平、代际相传、个人素质等对贫困不同程度的影响,金融发展对贫困减缓作用的发挥受到限制。因此,正确认识金融发展对贫困减缓的作用,有利于促进我国通过金融改革减少直至消除贫困,并为相关政策的制定提供重要的参考依据,促进金融发展有效发挥减缓贫困的作用。从理论角度,金融发展与经济增长关系一直是研究的焦点,此外,金融在推动创新、降低交易成本、创造流动性、促进资本积累、改善资源配置、分散风险及提高公司治理水平等方面的作用也颇受关注；在减缓贫困方面,研究主要集中于公共产品提供、收入分配制度、行业垄断、制度因素(财政税收制度)、非法收入、财政与援助等。直到20世纪90年代金融发展减缓贫困作用才受到普遍的关注,相关研究则主要集中于金融发展如何以经济增长方式减缓贫困,少有专门研究金融发展对贫困减缓的作用机制。因此,从金融发展角度,深入分析金融发展对贫困减缓的作用机制,有助于扩展金融发展与贫困减缓关系的研究理论,并丰富相关的研究成果。基于以上对现实和现有理论的认识与思考,本文以“我国金融发展对贫困减缓的影响：理论与实证”为题,在金融发展理论与贫困减缓理论的基础上,构建金融发展对贫困减缓作用机制的分析框架,运用系统GMM估计、ARDL模型以及OLS方法,结合我国实际情况,对二者的关系进行实证分析,从而为以金融发展实施贫困减缓政策的制定与应用提供理论和实践的支持。从研究方法上,本文充分运用金融学、经济学、统计学、管理学等学科方法,遵循理论指导实践、实证验证理论的思路,以现有理论为基础,运用规范分析的方法,对相关研究成果进行归纳和演绎,以客观构建金融发展影响贫困减缓的作用机制。并在这一框架下,结合我国实际,采用系统GMM估计、ARDL模型、OLS估计等定量方法,以动态面板数据、时间序列数据和横截面数据对我国金融发展与贫困减缓的问题进行论证,运用系统分析法对相关结论进行总结,提出政策启示和对策建议,从而保证研究的科学性与可信性,力求反映中国实际。在研究内容上,本文在金融发展理论与贫困减缓理论的基础上,对国内外文献进行了综述,借鉴相关研究成果构建了金融发展影响贫困减缓的作用机制,并分别采用我国省际动态面板数据、全国数据,运用系统GMM估计和ARDL模型进行了实证分析,认为金融发展对贫困减缓具有积极作用。由于金融服务获得对贫困减缓直接作用的特殊性,本文专门针对金融发展直接减缓贫困机制,以时间序列数据和横截面数据为样本,采用OLS方法对二者的长期关系进行了检验。最后得出金融发展减缓贫困的政策启示,并提出发挥金融减缓贫困作用的对策建议。全文分为7章,具体如下：第1章绪论。本章首先阐述了选题的背景和研究意义,鉴于我国金融发展与贫困减缓显著成就以及金融减贫政策对贫困减缓作用的典型事实,本文提出关于金融发展与贫困减缓的相关命题,主要目的是明确我国金融发展对贫困减缓的影响机制以及二者的关系。为清楚的研究二者的关系,本文对涉及的相关概念进行了界定,提出研究的目标、主要内容、研究思路与研究方法。最后,指出本文可能的创新之处以及存在的不足。第2章金融发展与贫困减缓的文献综述。本章首先对金融发展理论、贫困与贫困减缓理论进行简要的回顾,在厘清相关理论的基础上,对金融发展与贫困减缓的国内外研究进行综述。通过对相关理论和文献的回顾,可以看出,从金融发展的角度研究贫困减缓问题,有利于丰富相关的理论与实证成果。第3章金融发展影响贫困减缓的作用机制。本章在相关理论的基础上,构建了金融发展影响贫困减缓的分析框架,逐一对经济增长机制、收入分配机制、金融自由化机制以及金融服务作用机制进行分析,并对每一机制影响贫困减缓的方式进行了探讨,明确金融发展对贫困减缓的影响路径。第4章我国金融发展与贫困现状分析。本章首先阐述了我国金融发展的历史背景与特点,在对金融发展指标回顾的基础上,说明了本文选取金融发展指标的原因,并对我国金融发展的整体情况进行评价。然后选取常用的贫困指标对我国贫困现状与特点进行了阐述,分析贫困问题产生的原因。最后,对我国现有的金融减缓贫困的政策进行了阐述与评价。第5章金融发展影响贫困减缓的实证分析。本章根据第3章的分析框架构建模型,并结合相关理论与我国实际情况对变量进行界定,分别采用GMM估计、ARDL模型和OLS法进行实证分析。首先,采用系统GMM估计方法,以我国省际动态面板数据为样本,检验金融发展对贫困减缓作用,从而明确金融发展影响贫困减缓的机制。其次,借助较新的ARDL模型对金融发展与贫困减缓的协整关系进行检验,并对二者的因果关系进行分析。鉴于金融服务发展对贫困减缓的直接作用,本章最后采用OLS法分别以时间序列数据和横截面数据对金融发展影响贫困的直接作用机制进行检验,从而验证金融服务获得对贫困减缓的直接效应。第6章金融发展减缓贫困的政策启示与对策建议。根据前述分析,本章提出了金融发展减缓贫困的政策启示与对策建议。政策启示包括：正确看待金融发展减缓贫困的作用；有效识别金融发展减缓贫困的目标群体；政府适当的引导与支持；充分发挥宏观机制的作用,扩大金融服务的覆盖面。对策建议包括：规范信贷投向,促进贫困地区经济发展；健全小微企业融资渠道,扩展贫困群体收入来源；创新金融产品,改善对贫困群体的金融服务水平；构建普惠的金融服务体系,完善贫困群体的信用体系；加强金融监管,降低对贫困群体的消极影响；促进金融发展环境建设,避免对贫困群体的服务歧视。第7章主要结论与未来研究展望。本章主要是对全文理论分析与实证检验结果的总结,并对未来研究方向进行展望。本文得到以下主要结论：首先,金融发展具有资源配置、公司治理、风险管理、金融服务(储蓄、贷款、保险、培训等)等功能,它可以通过经济增长、收入分配、金融波动风险以及金融服务获得作用于贫困减缓。第二,我国的金融发展有利于贫困减缓,但会受到金融波动的影响。系统GMM估计结果表明,金融发展减缓贫困除直接作用外,还有经济增长、收入分配的积极作用,以及金融波动的消极影响。由于金融服务成本承担能力的制约,金融发展初期可能对穷人不利,但越过这一拐点后,金融发展有利于穷人收入水平的提高,即金融发展减缓贫困存在先恶化后改善效应。ARDL模型估计结果表明,金融发展有利于贫困减缓关系是长期稳定的,并存在金融发展与贫困减缓的长期双向因果关系,而短期因果关系与金融发展指标选取有关。OLS的验证结果表明,金融服务有利于贫困减缓,这一效应具有长期性。第三,应正确看待金融发展减缓贫困的作用,规范引导金融信贷投向,加大金融产品创新,健全融资渠道,构建普惠的金融服务体系,扩大金融服务群体,同时规避金融风险,促进金融发展环境建设,实现金融的和谐发展,从而有效发挥金融发展减缓贫困的作用。论文主要的创新之处在于：首先,以国内外研究成果为基础,构建了金融发展影响贫困减缓的经济增长、收入分配、金融风险、金融服务获得作用机制的分析框架,丰富了金融发展的相关研究成果。第二,采用系统GMM估计实证分析了金融发展影响贫困减缓的经济增长、收入分配、金融风险以及金融服务获得的作用机制,并验证了金融发展对贫困减缓的G-J效应。这一方法克服了固定效应分析等方法的不足。在协整关系分析中,采用了ARDL模型,避免了对数据平稳性、协整关系以及样本大小的要求。第三,构建了以宏观数据为基础的分析模型,并对金融服务发展对贫困减缓的作用机制进行检验,从而弥补了相关研究的空白。
[Abstract]:Financial development and poverty alleviation has been the concern of scholars and policy making. Since the reform and opening up, China's financial development has experienced the development process from single to multiple, regardless of size or efficiency have improved significantly. According to classical M2/GDP calculations, China's financial development scale increased from 31.8% in 1978 in 2011 185%, far more than the actual economic growth. From the financial assets, the total amount of steady growth, increased from 325 billion 740 million yuan in 1978 to 171 trillion and 400 billion yuan in 2010, and from a single structure into the central bank (the people's Bank of China), policy banks, state-owned commercial banks, other commercial banks, non bank financial institutions, the stock market and bond market constitute a diversified financial system, greatly increased the possibility of financial service.
In addition, the actual situation can not be ignored is the problem of poverty and poverty in China. As the largest developing country in the world, one of the important issues facing our country is still so poor, China has been committed to poverty alleviation work, and made outstanding achievements. According to China standard of official statistics, China's population poverty declined from 250 million in 2010 to 26 million 880 thousand in 1978, the poverty rate dropped from 30.7% in 1978 to 2.8% in 2010, the average annual decline of about 0.845%. gains achieved poverty reduction in poverty reduction measures in our country, the financial development and poverty reduction can not be ignored, the insurance from the early stage to credit poverty alleviation micro credit, micro finance, etc., in poverty alleviation plays an irreplaceable role, but because of the level of economic development, the initial income level, natural conditions, geographical location, education level, intergenerational transmission, a Effect of quality on different levels of poverty, financial development play a protective effect on poverty is limited. Therefore, the correct understanding of the financial development to poverty alleviation, is conducive to the promotion of China's financial reform through reducing and eliminating poverty, and provide an important reference for the formulation of relevant policies, to promote financial development effectively slowed down the role of poverty.
From the angle of theory, the relationship between financial development and economic growth has been the focus of research, in addition, in the financial innovation, reduce transaction costs, create liquidity, promote capital accumulation, improve the allocation of resources, disperse risk and improve the level of corporate governance and other aspects of the role is also popular attention; in poverty alleviation, mainly focus on the provision of public goods, income distribution system, industry monopoly, institutional factors (financial tax system), illegal income, financial aid and so on. Until the 1990s financial development role in poverty alleviation is widespread concern, the relevant research is mainly focused on how the financial development to the economic growth mode of poverty alleviation, less devoted to the study of the effect of financial development on the mechanism of poverty alleviation. Therefore, from the perspective of financial development, in-depth analysis of the effect of financial development on the mechanism of poverty alleviation, contribute to the expansion of financial development and poverty The research theory that slows down the relationship and enriches the relevant research results.
The above understanding and consideration of the reality and the existing theory based on the development of China's financial impact on Poverty Alleviation: on theoretical and empirical studies, in theory of financial development and poverty mitigation based on the theory of financial development mechanism of poverty mitigation analysis frame, use the system GMM estimation, ARDL model and OLS method, combined with the actual situation in China, the empirical analysis on the relationship between the two, so as to implement the financial development and poverty alleviation policy formulation and application of the theory and practice support.
From the research method, this paper make full use of finance, economics, statistics, management and other disciplines, follow the theory guiding practice, theory and empirical validation of ideas, to the existing theory, the method of normative analysis, the related research results are summarized and deductive, to construct the objective mechanism of financial development on poverty alleviation. And in this framework, combined with the reality of our country, using the system GMM estimation, ARDL model, OLS estimation and other quantitative methods to dynamic panel data to demonstrate the financial development of our country and development in poverty alleviation time series data and cross-sectional data, using the system analysis method to summarize the relevant conclusions. Put forward the policy implications and suggestions, so as to ensure the credibility of science and research, strives to reflect the actual China.
In the research content, based on the theory of financial development and poverty mitigation on the basis of the theory, the literature review, from the relevant research results builds a mechanism for poverty alleviation effect of financial development, and using data of China's national, provincial panel data, using the system GMM and ARDL model for empirical estimation analysis suggests that financial development has a positive effect on poverty alleviation. Due to financial services for special slow direct effect on poverty, this paper specifically for financial development directly to poverty alleviation mechanism, time series data and cross-section data as samples, using OLS method of long-term relationships among the two tested. At the end of that financial development slow down the policy implications of poverty, and puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions of financial play a role in poverty alleviation. The thesis is divided into 7 chapters, as follows:
The first chapter is the introduction. This chapter first describes the background and significance of this research, in view of China's financial development and poverty mitigation remarkable achievements and the typical financial facts of poverty reduction policy on poverty alleviation effect, this paper advances a proposition related to financial development and poverty alleviation, the main purpose is to clear the development of China's financial impact on mechanism poverty alleviation and two. In order to study the relationship between the two clearly, this paper defines the related concepts, puts forward the research objectives, main contents, research ideas and research methods. Finally, the possible innovations and shortcomings.
The second chapter is literature review of financial development and poverty alleviation. The first chapter of the theory of financial development, conduct a brief review of poverty and poverty alleviation theory, based on clarifying the relevant theory, the financial development and poverty alleviation at home and abroad were reviewed. Through the review of the relevant theory and literature can be seen, the slowdown the study of poverty from the perspective of financial development, is conducive to the theoretical and empirical achievements related.
The third chapter mechanism of financial development for poverty alleviation. This chapter on the basis of relevant theory, constructs the framework for poverty alleviation effect of financial development on economic growth mechanism, one by one, the income distribution mechanism, analysis of the financial liberalization and the mechanism of financial service mechanism, and each influence mechanism of poverty alleviation mode to clear effect of financial development on poverty alleviation path.
The fourth chapter analysis of the current situation of China's financial development and poverty. This chapter first describes the historical background and characteristics of China's financial development, based on the review of indicators of financial development, this paper explains the selection of indicators of financial development, and the overall situation of the development of China's financial evaluation. Then select the common indexes of poverty elaborates on the characteristics and current situation of poverty in China, analysis of the causes of poverty problems. Finally, on China's existing financial poverty alleviation policies are described and evaluated.
An empirical analysis on the impact of poverty alleviation and financial development. The fifth chapter in this chapter according to the analysis framework the third chapter construction model, and combining the theory with the actual situation in our country the variables are defined, respectively using GMM estimation, ARDL model and OLS method for empirical analysis. Firstly, estimation method using the system GMM, with provincial panel data I in the sample, slow down the inspection of financial development on the poor, so as to clear the mechanism of poverty alleviation of the impact of financial development. Secondly, the ARDL model with the new test on the relationship between financial development and poverty alleviation and causal association, the relationship between the two is analyzed. In view of the direct effect of financial services on the development of poverty alleviation. At the end of this chapter, using the method of OLS direct mechanism with time series data and cross-sectional data of the influence of financial development on poverty to test, to verify the financial services for poor The direct effect of slowing down.
Slow enlightenment and policy of poverty sixth chapter financial development. Based on the above analysis, this chapter puts forward the suggestions and Countermeasures of poverty mitigation from financial development. Policy implications include: a correct view of poverty alleviation in financial development; financial development to effectively identify poverty mitigation target groups; government guidance and support fully appropriate; play the macro mechanism, expand the coverage of financial services. The countermeasures include: regulating the flow of credit, to promote economic development in poverty-stricken areas; improve the Small and micro businesses to expand financing channels, poor sources of income; innovative financial products, improve the level of financial services for the poor; building inclusive financial services system, improve the poor credit system; strengthen financial supervision, to reduce the negative impact on poverty; promote the construction and development of the financial environment, to avoid poverty Discrimination in the service of the group.
The seventh chapter is the main conclusion and future research prospect. This chapter mainly summarizes the theoretical analysis and empirical test results of the full text, and looks forward to the future research direction.
The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:
First, financial development has the functions of resource allocation, corporate governance, risk management, financial services (savings, loans, insurance, training, etc.), and it can be slowed down by economic growth, income distribution, financial volatility risk and financial services.
Second, China's financial development is conducive to poverty alleviation, but will be affected by the financial system fluctuations. The results of GMM show that the financial development and poverty alleviation in addition to direct effect, and economic growth, the positive role of the income distribution, and the negative impact of financial volatility. Due to the restriction of the ability to bear the cost of financial services, at the early stage of financial development may be bad for the poor, but across the inflection point, is conducive to the incomes of the poor to raise the level of financial development, financial development has deteriorated after the first poverty reduction effect.ARDL model estimation results show that financial development is conducive to poverty alleviation is a long-term stable relationship, and the existence of financial development and poverty alleviation of the long-term two-way causal relationship however, the short-term causal relationship between financial development index verification on.OLS results show that financial services is conducive to poverty alleviation, this effect is long-term.
Third, should be a correct view of financial development and poverty alleviation, standardize and guide financial credit, increase financial product innovation, improve the financing channels, building inclusive financial services system, to expand the financial services group, and avoid financial risks, promote the construction and development of the financial environment, realize the harmonious development of Finance, so as to effectively play the role of financial poverty alleviation development.
The main innovations of the paper are: first, based on the research results at home and abroad, we build an analytical framework for financial development, which affects poverty alleviation, economic growth, income distribution, financial risk and the mechanism of financial services acquisition, which enriches the related research results of financial development.
Second, using the system GMM empirical analysis of the impact of financial development on economic growth for poverty alleviation, estimation of income distribution mechanism, financial risk and financial services, and verify the G-J effect of financial development on poverty alleviation. This method overcomes the shortcomings of fixed effect analysis method. In the analysis of cointegration relationship, the the ARDL model, to avoid data stationarity, cointegration relation and sample size requirements.
Third, we built a macro data based analysis model, and tested the mechanism of financial services development on poverty alleviation.

【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832;F124.7;F224

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