人民币汇率水平影响主体的博弈分析

发布时间：2018-03-20 22:36

本文选题：人民币汇率　切入点：汇率水平　出处：《湖南大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：汇率问题一直是国内外学者广泛关注的问题，而人民币汇率问题也随着中国经济的持续高速增长走进许多学者的视线。自1994年汇改以来，人民币汇率问题成为国际金融界关注的焦点。在国际收支双顺差、不断增加的巨额外汇储备等诸多因素的共同影响下，人民币开始了近十年的总体升值走势。众所周知，汇率问题对于一国经济的影响是巨大的。日本“失落的十年”、东南亚金融危机等等问题都与汇率存在着不小的联系。多重压力之下，人民币汇率问题的解决具有现实意义。本文综合了国内外研究成果，，发现以往对于汇率的研究鲜有从博弈论的视角进行研究分析。所以本文从博弈论的视角出发，将博弈模型与统计计量模型结合，通过大量的数据以及详实的资料全面地对人民币汇率问题进行研究分析。本文首先从汇率决定理论出发，分析了决定汇率水平的各要素，并由此概括出汇率水平的影响主体；再接着分析汇率变动会给各影响主体的收益、利益带来的影响，由此构建了不同博弈主体之间的博弈模型，其中包括中国政府同外国投资者间的博弈模型、中国政府同外国政府之间的博弈模型、中国政府同本国公众间的博弈模型；通过各影响主体间的博弈分析得出，各影响主体都是在为自身利益最大化进行博弈，而中国政府作为人民币汇率水平的最大影响主体，应该在照顾各方影响主体利益的同时，尽力保持人民币汇率的基本稳定，使中国经济平稳、健康发展；最后，本文对上世纪70年代到上世纪90年代日本汇率变动进行分析，以史为鉴，对于日本政府的做法我们需要取其精华去其糟粕，旨在为我国的经济策略进行指导，避免政策方向偏离正确的轨道。分析结果表明：1.具有投机行为的外国投资者、很乐意从汇率的大幅波动中谋取利益，中国政府应在对外资保持高度警惕的情况下保持制定政策的自主权。2.以美国为首的外国政府，是给人民币升值压力的主体，这样做的目的是使本国经济内外部均衡，但分析结果表明这样做的效果甚微；反观中国政府，不能任由外国政府摆布，应综合分析国内外各方面经济环境的情况下实施最有效的汇率政策。3.本国公众最希望看到本国经济平稳、健康发展，不希望汇率有大幅波动；所以政府如果要保持良好的信誉就必须保持汇率在合理的范围内浮动。
[Abstract]:The issue of exchange rate has been widely concerned by scholars at home and abroad, and the issue of RMB exchange rate has come to the attention of many scholars along with the sustained and rapid growth of China's economy. The issue of RMB exchange rate has become the focus of attention in the international financial circles. Under the joint influence of many factors, such as the double surplus in the balance of payments and the ever-increasing huge foreign exchange reserves, the RMB has begun its overall appreciation trend in the past ten years. As we all know, The influence of exchange rate problem on a country's economy is great. Japan's "lost decade", Southeast Asian financial crisis and other problems have no small relationship with the exchange rate. Under multiple pressures, the solution of RMB exchange rate problem has practical significance. This paper synthesizes the domestic and foreign research results, and finds that the previous research on the exchange rate is seldom analyzed from the perspective of game theory, so this paper combines the game model with the statistical econometric model from the perspective of game theory. Through a large number of data and detailed information on the issue of RMB exchange rate research and analysis. Based on the theory of exchange rate determination, this paper analyzes the factors that determine the level of exchange rate, and then generalizes the main body influencing the level of exchange rate, and then analyzes the influence of the change of exchange rate on the income and benefit of each subject. From this, the game models between different players are constructed, including the game model between Chinese government and foreign investors, the game model between Chinese government and foreign government, and the game model between Chinese government and local public. Through the game analysis among the affected subjects, it is concluded that all the affected subjects are playing games for their own benefit maximization, and the Chinese government, as the biggest influence subject of RMB exchange rate level, should take care of the main interests of all the parties, at the same time, Try to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate, so that China's economy is stable and healthy development. Finally, this paper analyzes the exchange rate changes in Japan from -30s to -10s, drawing lessons from history. In order to guide our country's economic strategy and avoid the policy direction deviating from the right track, we need to take the essence of the Japanese government to get rid of the dross. The results of the analysis show that foreign investors with speculative behavior are willing to profit from the large fluctuations in the exchange rate. The Chinese government should maintain its autonomy in formulating policies while maintaining a high degree of vigilance over foreign investment. Foreign governments led by the United States are the main body of pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi. The purpose of doing so is to balance the internal and external aspects of the domestic economy. However, the results of the analysis show that the effect of this approach has been minimal; on the other hand, the Chinese Government cannot be left to the mercy of foreign governments. It is necessary to carry out the most effective exchange rate policy under the condition of comprehensive analysis of the economic environment at home and abroad .3. the domestic public most wants to see the stable and healthy development of the domestic economy, and does not want the exchange rate to fluctuate substantially; So if the government is to maintain good reputation, it must keep the exchange rate floating within a reasonable range.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F224.32

【参考文献】