持续贸易顺差背景下中国外汇储备的增长模式研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 01:49

本文选题：储备增长　切入点：出口贸易　出处：《管理科学》2010年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于Buffer Stock模型,建立中国外储增长与汇率关系的初始模型,借鉴RS模型,考虑汇率升/贬对储备增长的两种不同信号效应,通过协整检验和导入误差修正项,进一步改进初始模型。实证表明,贸易波动率对储备需求的影响,较外储持有机会成本的影响要大得多,这揭示了中国出口导向经济发展战略的负面效应;研究还发现,人民币升值对中国外储规模的抑制效应远大于卢比升值对印度外储规模的抑制效应,反映了人民银行面对本币升值时会更积极地干预汇市;与印度卢比贬值能够增加外储不同,人民币贬值却对中国外储规模没有显著影响。在中国提出扩大内需、转变经济增长方式的新形势下,没有必要继续对汇率变动进行不对称干预。
[Abstract]:Based on the Buffer Stock model, the initial model of the relationship between foreign reserve growth and exchange rate in China is established. Using RS model for reference, two different signal effects of exchange rate rise / fall on reserve growth are considered, and the error correction items are introduced through cointegration test. Further improvement of the initial model. Empirical results show that the impact of trade volatility on reserve demand is much greater than the opportunity cost of reserve holdings, which reveals the negative effects of China's export-oriented economic development strategy. The inhibitory effect of RMB appreciation on the size of China's foreign reserves is far greater than that of the appreciation of the rupee on the size of Indian foreign reserves, reflecting the fact that the people's Bank of China will intervene more actively in the foreign exchange market in the face of the appreciation of its own currency; unlike the Indian rupee devaluation, it can increase foreign reserves. The devaluation of the renminbi has no significant impact on the size of China's foreign reserves. Under the new situation in which China proposes to expand domestic demand and change the pattern of economic growth, there is no need to continue to intervene asymmetrically in exchange rate movements.
【作者单位】：北京航空航天大学经济管理学院;美国密西根大学Ross商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(70803003) 教育部人文社会科学基金(07JC790053) 北京航空航天大学“蓝天人才计划”~~
【分类号】：F832.6

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