基于投入产出模型的多部门间货币流动研究

发布时间：2018-03-23 22:31

本文选题：投入产出　切入点：货币流　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：货币政策对国家宏观经济起着至关重要的作用，中央银行的主要职责便是通过实施不同的货币政策，调节货币供给，起到调节国家宏观经济的作用，存款准备金比率，公开市场业务操作和再贴现政策是央行调节货币供给的三大主要手段。但近几年全球金融市场的不稳定性，为宏观调控增大了困难，央行所采用的货币效果一再减弱，这种状况让我们开始重新思考货币政策的有效性。本文从多部门间货币流动的角度，利用投入产出分析方法对这一问题展开系统深入的研究。我们在详细考察了各微观主体的货币收支特征的基础上，将其划分为家庭部门、最终产品制造企业、原材料及中间产品制造企业、商业企业、非银行金融机构、政府部门、中央银行和商业银行八个部门，首先基于货币流出的固定比例假设,建立了多部门间货币流动的横向投入产出模型和多部门间货币流动的纵向投入产出模型；对基于横向平衡关系的八部门货币流动的投入产出方程组和基于纵向平衡关系的八部门货币流动的投入产出方程组进行了详细的求解；基于完全流入系数矩阵A的所有元素都是非负的，，完全流入系数矩阵A的各列元素之和小于1，证明了基于投入产出模型的完全流入系数矩阵A相关的（I-A）的逆矩阵的存在性；直接流入系数对完全流入矩阵的影响可以通过一阶近似进行定量计算。在这个基础之上，又提出了一种更加完整、更加合理的混合型投入产出模型，依据构建的不同部门10年的货币流数据对混合型货币流模型的合理性进行了实例分析，Eviews的t假设检验表明：货币流数据构建正确，可以确定部门间的货币流相关性。并通过对数据的分析对单一的投入产出模型和混合型投入产出模型的适用性做出了解释。最后构建了接近真实的系数矩阵，得到两个系数矩阵和其逆矩阵。这两个系数矩阵分别是银行存款变化导致每两个部门间货币流量的变化系数，和银行贷款变化导致的每两个部门间货币流的变化。利用这两个系数矩阵可以更加直观分析银行存贷款对于各部门货币流量的变化。单独分析了家庭部门和中间产品制造业中，受存贷款影响最大的和最小的部门及其影响原因。其他的部门间货币流的变化，也可以由同样的方法的到。这一研究方法，可以在央行施行不同的货币政策时提供依据和参考。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy plays a vital role in the country's macro-economy. The central bank's main duty is to regulate the national macro-economy by implementing different monetary policies and regulating the money supply, and the ratio of deposits to reserves. The operation of open market operations and the policy of rediscount are the three major means by which the central bank adjusts the money supply. However, the instability of the global financial market in recent years has made it more difficult for macroeconomic regulation and control, and the monetary effect adopted by the central bank has been weakened again and again. This situation has led us to rethink the effectiveness of monetary policy. Based on the detailed study of the characteristics of the money balance of various micro entities, we divide it into household sector, final product manufacturing enterprise, and so on. Eight departments, including raw materials and intermediate products manufacturing enterprises, commercial enterprises, non-bank financial institutions, government departments, central banks and commercial banks, Firstly, based on the fixed proportion hypothesis of money outflow, the horizontal input-output model of multi-sector currency flow and the vertical input-output model of multi-sector currency flow are established. The input-output equations of the eight-sector money flow based on the horizontal equilibrium relationship and the input-output equations of the eight-sector monetary flows based on the longitudinal equilibrium relationship are solved in detail. Based on the fact that all the elements of the complete inflow coefficient matrix A are non-negative, and the sum of the elements of the complete inflow coefficient matrix A is less than 1, the existence of the inverse matrix of the complete inflow coefficient matrix A related to I-A based on the input-output model is proved. The influence of direct inflow coefficient on the complete inflow matrix can be calculated quantitatively by first order approximation. On this basis, a more complete and reasonable hybrid input-output model is proposed. According to the money flow data of different departments for 10 years, the rationality of the mixed money flow model is analyzed by a case study. The t hypothesis test of Eviews shows that the money flow data is constructed correctly. By analyzing the data, the applicability of a single input-output model and a mixed input-output model is explained. Finally, a near-real coefficient matrix is constructed. Two coefficient matrices and their inverse matrices are obtained. Using these two coefficient matrices, we can more intuitively analyze the change of bank deposit and loan to the money flow of each sector. The most and least affected by deposits and loans and the reasons for their influence. The changes of other interdepartmental money flows can also be made by the same method. This research method can provide the basis and reference for the central bank to carry out different monetary policies.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.0;F223

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