FDI对江苏省出口贸易结构影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-25 09:56

本文选题：FDI　切入点：出口贸易　出处：《南京航空航天大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：江苏省作为我国东部外向型经济的典范,FDI(外商直接投资)和出口贸易在其经济快速发展过程中扮演着不可替代的重要角色。外资的流入可以给一个地区带来不胜枚举的机遇,它不仅可以带动出口贸易的飞速发展,弥补资本缺口,还有利于要素的重新配置,推动经济增长;但与此同时,东道国也可能面临无法预测的挑战,譬如外资的不稳定性可能带来出口贸易总量的虚增和贸易结构的不均衡,因此,从长期发展来看,研究出口贸易的结构升级比贸易总量规模的提高更有意义。此外,出口贸易商品中的资本技术密集型产品与劳动密集型产品对贸易结构优化的作用大相径庭,FDI对两者的影响程度一定层面上导向着未来江苏省出口贸易结构的转变,因而就FDI对江苏省出口贸易商品内部结构的影响进行实证研究,具有长期而现实的重要意义。本文在直接投资与国际贸易的理论研究基础上,首先利用江苏省2003-2012年统计年鉴里的时间序列数据,从FDI概况、方式、产业流向和来源地分布这几个方面定性分析了江苏省利用外资的现实情况;再从出口贸易概况、商品结构、方式结构和区域分布这四个角度分析了江苏省出口贸易的结构现状。在深入了解江苏省FDI和出口贸易结构现状的基础上,运用定量分析方法,围绕出口商品结构这个中心,运用单位根检验、协整检验和误差修正模型方法对取得的数据进行实证分析。其中,为客观且具体地分析FDI对江苏出口贸易结构的影响,本文除了将工业制成品与初级产品出口额之比作为考察出口贸易商品结构的变量外,还将增设工业制成品内部结构中的资本技术密集型和劳动密集型工业制成品出口额两个变量,这样不仅可以使FDI对出口贸易结构的影响的考察更加全面和具体,也可以为出口贸易结构升级、制定深层次的引资计划提供背景支持和理论依据。研究结果显示,从长期角度看,FDI不仅对出口贸易结构的优化具有促进作用,还为江苏省工业制成品出口内部结构从劳动密集型为主向资本技术密集型为主的转变起到了一定作用。在短期角度上,江苏省出口贸易结构、各项工业制成品出口额的变化一定程度上受上期FDI变动的影响,同时还存在偏离长期均衡的修正机制。最后,基于现状和实证分析的结果,本文提出了进一步利用FDI促进江苏出口贸易结构优化的政策建议。
[Abstract]:As an example of export-oriented economy in eastern China, Jiangsu Province plays an irreplaceable role in the rapid development of its economy, such as FDI (foreign direct investment) and export trade. The inflow of foreign capital can bring endless opportunities to a region. It can not only boost the rapid development of export trade, make up for the capital gap, but also help to reconfigure the factors and promote economic growth; but at the same time, the host country may also face unpredictable challenges. For example, the instability of foreign investment may lead to an increase in the total volume of export trade and the imbalance in the structure of trade. Therefore, in the long run, it is more meaningful to study the structural upgrading of export trade than to increase the scale of total trade. The effects of capital-technology-intensive products and labor-intensive products on the optimization of trade structure are quite different from each other. The impact of FDI on the trade structure of Jiangsu Province in a certain level leads to the transformation of the export trade structure of Jiangsu Province in the future. Therefore, an empirical study on the impact of FDI on the internal structure of Jiangsu export trade commodities is of long-term and practical significance. This paper is based on the theoretical study of direct investment and international trade. First, using the time series data of Jiangsu Province's 2003-2012 statistical yearbook, this paper qualitatively analyzes the current situation of Jiangsu Province's utilization of foreign capital from the aspects of FDI profile, mode, industry direction and source distribution, and then from the perspective of export trade and commodity structure. This paper analyzes the structural status of Jiangsu's export trade from the four angles of mode structure and regional distribution. On the basis of deeply understanding the current situation of Jiangsu's FDI and export trade structure, and using quantitative analysis method, it revolves around the export commodity structure as the center. The unit root test, cointegration test and error correction model are used to analyze the data obtained. Among them, the impact of FDI on Jiangsu export trade structure is analyzed objectively and concretely. In this paper, the ratio of manufactured goods to primary product exports is taken as a variable to examine the commodity structure of export trade. It will also add two variables, capital-technology-intensive and labor-intensive, in the internal structure of manufactured goods, which will not only make the impact of FDI on the export trade structure more comprehensive and specific. It can also provide background support and theoretical basis for the upgrading of export trade structure and the formulation of deep investment attracting plans. The results show that FDI can not only promote the optimization of export trade structure in the long run. It has also played a certain role in the transformation of the internal structure of Jiangsu's industrial manufactured goods exports from labor-intensive to capital-technology-intensive. In the short term, Jiangsu's export trade structure, The change of the export value of manufactured goods is influenced to some extent by the change of FDI in the last period, at the same time, there is a correction mechanism that deviates from the long-term equilibrium. Finally, based on the results of current situation and empirical analysis, This paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the optimization of Jiangsu export trade structure by using FDI.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.62;F832.6

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