基于巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的人民币实际汇率变动实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-27 04:45

本文选题：巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应　切入点：人民币实际汇率　出处：《湖南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：巴拉萨-萨缪尔森理论认为,一国经济的快速增长带来可贸易部门以及不可贸易部门工资的上涨,进一步带动了整个国家的物价总体水平的上涨,最终引起了实际汇率的上升,本质上来说就是本币的升值。中国自改革开放后经济出现了快速的增长,伴随着经济增长,可贸易部门的劳动生产率得到迅速地提高,同时两部门工资水平也出现快速上涨,然而人民币实际汇率却没有出现相应地变动,在长期内人民币是贬值的,这就与巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应相违背了,因此本文根据中国工资的现状、与实际汇率密切相关的贸易条件以及近几年急剧增长的外汇储备这样的中国国情对巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应模型进行了修正。本文构建了中国两部门劳动生产率之比、两部门工资水平之比、贸易条件系数以及外汇储备与人民币汇率变动的时间序列计量模型,首先对1979-2010年各变量影响人民币汇率变动进行实证分析,两部门劳动生产率之比与中国人民币实际汇率呈现负向相关关系,两部门工资水平与人民币实际汇率正向相关,贸易条件指数与人民币汇率负相关,外汇储备的变动与人民币汇率呈正向相关关系,再以中国1994年汇率制度改革为界限,分阶段讨论以上变量对于人民币汇率的影响,结果发现1979-1994年间,两部门劳动生产率之比与中国人民币实际汇率变动正相关,两部门工资水平与人民币实际汇率呈反向变动关系,贸易条件指数与人民币实际汇率负相关,外汇储备与人民币实际汇率变动正相关；1995-2010年间两部门劳动生产率之比与人民币实际汇率负相关,两部门工资水平与人民币汇率正相关,贸易条件指数与人民币实际汇率负相关,外汇储备则与人民币实际汇率正相关。本文认为通过汇率制度改革来提高人民币汇率的市场化程度以及自由化程度,这种措施有助于缓解人民币汇率低估对中国经济稳定带来的冲击,同时应该加快第三产业的发展,提高第三产业的劳动生产率,缩小中国两部门之间劳动生产率的差距,以此来缓解人民币的升值压力。
[Abstract]:The Balassa-Samuelson theory holds that the rapid growth of a country's economy brings about a rise in wages in both the tradable and non-tradable sectors, further driving up the overall level of prices in the whole country, and eventually leading to the rise of the real exchange rate. In essence, it is the appreciation of the local currency. China has experienced rapid economic growth since the reform and opening up. Along with economic growth, the productivity of the tradable sector has increased rapidly, and wages in both sectors have also risen rapidly. However, there is no corresponding change in the real exchange rate of RMB. In the long run, the RMB is devalued, which is contrary to the Balassa-Samuelson effect. Therefore, according to the current situation of Chinese wages, The terms of trade closely related to the real exchange rate and the rapidly increasing foreign exchange reserves in recent years have modified the Balassa-Samuelson effect model. This paper constructs a time series measurement model of labor productivity ratio, wage level ratio, terms of trade coefficient and foreign exchange reserve and RMB exchange rate change in two sectors of China. First of all, the paper makes an empirical analysis on the effect of variables on the RMB exchange rate from 1979 to 2010. The ratio of labor productivity between the two sectors and the real exchange rate of China's RMB show a negative correlation, and the wage level of the two sectors is positively correlated with the real exchange rate of the RMB. The terms of trade index is negatively correlated with the RMB exchange rate, the change of foreign exchange reserves is positively correlated with the RMB exchange rate, and the influence of the above variables on the RMB exchange rate is discussed in stages, taking China's exchange rate system reform in 1994 as the limit. The results show that the ratio of labor productivity between the two sectors is positively related to the real exchange rate of RMB in China, the wage level of the two sectors is inversely related to the real exchange rate of RMB, and the terms of trade index is negatively correlated with the real exchange rate of RMB. The ratio of labor productivity between 1995 and 2010 is negatively correlated with the real exchange rate of RMB, the wage level of the two sectors is positively correlated with the RMB exchange rate, and the terms of trade index is negatively correlated with the real exchange rate of RMB. Foreign exchange reserves are positively related to the real exchange rate of the renminbi. This paper argues that the marketization and liberalization of RMB exchange rate can be improved through the reform of exchange rate regime, which will help to mitigate the impact of RMB undervaluation on China's economic stability. At the same time, we should speed up the development of the tertiary industry, improve the labor productivity of the tertiary industry, and narrow the gap between the labor productivity of the two sectors in China, so as to ease the pressure of RMB appreciation.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F224

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