黄金股票价格影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-03 23:52

本文选题：黄金股票　切入点：价格　出处：《山东大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：08年金融危机发生后,各国央行向经济体系注入了前所未有的流动性,在全球经济结构的不平衡及美元汇率的不确定性背景下,官方及民间资金配置黄金的需求大幅增加,黄金价格一路攀升。受益于黄金价格的上涨,国内主要从事黄金开采的上市公司的股价也一路飙升。黄金板块股票受到投资者的追捧,甚至出现一些盲目的投资现象。黄金作为一种特殊的金属品种,其既有商品属性又有金融属性。不管黄金怎样的被“非货币化”,黄金依然是硬通货,是重要的金融资产和保值手段以及投资工具。股票作为一种有价证券,是股份公司在筹集资本时向出资人公开或私下发行的、用以证明出资人的股本身份和权利,并根据持有人所持有的股份数享有权益和承担义务的凭证。黄金股票指的是以黄金开采为主营业务的上市公司的股票。由于其经营产品的特殊性,购买黄金股票不仅是投资金矿公司,更是间接的投资黄金,因此这种投资行为比单纯的黄金买卖或股票买卖更为复杂。投资者不仅要关注公司的经营状况,还要对黄金市场价格走势进行分析,考虑宏观经济等多重因素。因此黄金股票投资分析就是在不确定条件下研究如何进行黄金股票的投资决策。本文主要从影响黄金价格的因素、影响股票价格的因素等几个角度来探讨影响黄金股票价格的因素,研究如何对黄金股票进行合理的估值分析并指导投资。黄金作为一种特殊的商品,它的价格受供求关系、美元汇率等多重因素的影响。黄金的供给主要来自于矿产金、央行售金和回收金。而黄金的需求则受工业需求、避险需求、保值需求、储备需求、投资需求等多个方面的影响。同时由于其主要交易使用美元进行标价的,因此美元汇率对黄金价格的影响也不容小视。黄金价格和黄金股票价格具有很高的相关性,黄金价格的影响因素也对黄金股票价格造成影响。股票的价格影响因素主要来自于企业自身和股市整体环境。股票价格不仅反映的是上市公司的经营状况,其所处行业地位、收益、资产价值、收益变动、分红变化、增资、减资、新产品新技术的开发、供求关系、股东构成变化、未来三年业绩预测、市盈率、合并与收购等因素都会对其股价造成影响,也受市场中的供求关系、机构持仓比例等因素的影响。除了企业自身因素的影响外,股市的整体环境也会对黄金股票价格产生影响,这主要包括：宏观经济走向、货币政策、财政政策、通胀情况、政治、社会形势等一系列因素。黄金板块上市公司由于其主营产品的特殊性,其股价即遵循上市企业定价的一般原则,又有一定的特殊性。黄金股票该如何估值,各种影响因素对黄金股票价格的影响有多大,是本文探讨的主要内容。文章从股票估值的基本方法EPS、PE、PB几个角度,对国内外黄金股票的估值水平进行了比较和分析。同时还通过绝对价值分析对比了国内外黄金股票的内在价值。并以山东黄金为案例,进行了黄金股票投资价值的分析。通过数据分析发现,截至数据收集截止日,国内黄金股票的价格存在被高估的情况,黄金股票价格已经严重背离了其内在价值。很多投资者将黄金价格的趋势预测作为判断黄金股票价格走势的重要依据,将相对估值分析作为筛选最佳投资对象的参考依据是不全面的。投资黄金股票毕竟不能完全等同于投资黄金,单单依靠对金价后期的走势预测来判断黄金股票的走势往往会陷于误区,带来投资风险。黄金作为一种资源型产品,其产能无法无限扩张,而依赖于企业的黄金储量。因此购买黄金股票购买的是企业的黄金储量和开采能力。在不确定条件下的黄金股票投资决策不仅要充分考虑黄金价格的各种影响因素,关注黄金价格走势,更要研究黄金企业的内在价值,以及国内外政治经济文化等多重因素,采用综合模糊理论做出投资决策,避免陷入投资误区。
[Abstract]:After the 2008 financial crisis , central banks have injected unprecedented liquidity into the economic system , and the demand for official and private funding has increased significantly in the context of imbalances in the global economic structure and the uncertainty of the dollar . The price of gold has soared . The share price of a publicly traded company mainly engaged in gold mining has soared as the gold price goes up . Gold plate stocks are being pursued by investors , even with some blind investment .

As a special kind of metal , gold has both commodity and financial attributes . No matter how gold is " non - monetary " , gold is still hard currency , it is an important financial asset and hedging instrument and investment tool .

As a kind of securities , shares are issued publicly or privately to the investors when raising capital , to prove the identity and rights of the investors , and to enjoy the rights and interests and obligations of the holders according to the number of shares held by the holder .

Gold stock refers to the stock of listed company which is the main business of gold mining . Because of its particularity , the purchase of gold shares is not only investment gold mining companies but also indirect investment gold , so this investment behavior is more complex than simple gold trading or stock trading . Investors should not only pay attention to the company ' s operating conditions , but also analyze the price trend of gold market , and consider the multiple factors such as macro - economy and so on . Therefore , the analysis of gold stock investment is to study how to make investment decision of gold stock under uncertain conditions .

This paper discusses the factors that affect the price of gold stock from several factors , such as the factors that affect the price of gold and the factors that affect the price of the stock , and studies how to carry out the reasonable valuation analysis on the gold stock and guide the investment .

Gold is a kind of special commodity , its price is influenced by multiple factors such as supply and demand , dollar exchange rate and so on . The supply of gold is mainly from mineral gold , central bank gold sale and recovery gold . The demand of gold is influenced by industrial demand , hedging demand , hedging demand , reserve demand and investment demand .

The stock price affects the whole environment of the enterprise itself and the stock market . The stock price reflects not only the operating condition of the listed company , its position , income , asset value , profit change , dividend change , capital increase , capital reduction , new product new technology development , supply and demand relationship , shareholder composition change , three year performance forecast , earnings ratio , merger and acquisition , etc . The overall environment of the stock market will influence the price of gold stock in the next three years , which mainly includes macro - economy trend , monetary policy , fiscal policy , inflation situation , political and social situation .

This paper compares and analyzes the valuation level of gold stock at home and abroad from the basic methods EPS , PE and PB of stock valuation , and compares the intrinsic value of gold stock at home and abroad through absolute value analysis .

According to the data analysis , the price of domestic gold stock has been overrated as of the data collection deadline , and the price of gold stock has deviated from its intrinsic value .

Many investors predict the trend of gold price as an important basis for judging the price trend of gold stock , and the relative valuation analysis as the reference basis for selecting the best investment object is incomplete . The investment gold stock can not be completely equivalent to the investment gold after all .

In the uncertain condition , the investment decision not only takes full consideration of the factors of the gold price , pays attention to the gold price trend , but also studies the intrinsic value of the gold enterprises , and the multi - factors such as the political and economic culture at home and abroad , and makes the investment decision by adopting the comprehensive fuzzy theory and avoids the investment misunderstanding .

【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F832.54;F832.51

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