中国资产价格波动与货币政策应对策略研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 07:21

本文选题：资产价格　切入点：货币政策　出处：《云南大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：随着中国金融市场的深化和资产市场在国民经济中作用的不断增强,资产价格与宏观经济的关系将变得越来越重要,资产价格波动对货币政策的制定和实施也将产生越来越大的影响。因此,深入研究中国资产价格波动对宏观经济的影响以及货币政策应对资产价格波动的策略,无疑将具有十分重要的理论意义和实践涵义。本文在研究思路上依循货币政策缘何要应对资产价格的波动?货币政策有没有能力应对资产价格的波动?货币政策到底应如何应对资产价格波动这样一个逻辑顺序,在综合运用理论分析、规范分析、实证分析、案例分析等多种研究方法的基础上,对资产价格波动对通货膨胀、金融稳定的影响,货币政策对资产价格的影响以及货币政策的应对策略等问题展开研究,得出的主要结论如下： 1.从中国资产价格波动对通货膨胀的影响上看,无论是在长期还是短期,资产价格波动对通货膨胀均已产生了不容忽视的影响,而且房地产价格对通货膨胀的影响要大于股票价格,货币政策应该更加关注房地产价格的波动。由于目前中国资产价格波动对消费、投资的影响还不显著,因此,资产价格波动主要是通过影响公众通货膨胀预期而对通货膨胀产生了不容忽视的影响。构建的广义动态价格指数证明其对通货膨胀具有一定的预测作用。2.从中国资产价格波动对金融稳定的影响上看,股票价格和银行信贷之间还不存在相互加强的作用机制,股票价格对银行信贷有一定的影响,银行信贷对股票价格的影响很小；而房地产价格和银行信贷已形成一定程度相互加强的作用机制,资产价格波动通过银行信贷对金融稳定造成了不可忽视的影响。3.从中国货币政策对资产价格的影响上看,无论是从影响力的大小,还是从影响的有效性方面来看,货币供应量均要优于利率。因此,货币政策在应对资产价格波动时,应优先考虑使用数量型货币政策工具。4.中国货币政策在应对资产价格波动时应遵循：在坚持物价稳定目标的同时,也要积极应对资产价格的波动；构建广义价格指数,将其作为货币政策目标的辅助监测指标；货币政策应对资产价格波动的反应方式应是规则性和灵活性的结合；选择合适的货币政策工具来防范资产价格波动的金融风险；对资产价格变化进行监测,建立一套资产价格泡沫的预警指标体系；货币政策应实施“对称”的逆周期操作；货币政策应与宏观审慎监管协调配合,共同防范资产价格波动的风险；加强国际合作,共同应对资产价格泡沫等策略。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of China's financial market and the increasing role of the asset market in the national economy, the relationship between asset prices and the macro economy will become more and more important.The fluctuation of asset price will have more and more influence on the formulation and implementation of monetary policy.Therefore, it is undoubtedly of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of asset price fluctuation on macro economy and the strategy of monetary policy to deal with asset price fluctuation in China.Why should we deal with the fluctuation of asset price according to the monetary policy in this paper?Does monetary policy have the capacity to cope with volatility in asset prices?In the end, how should monetary policy deal with the logical order of asset price fluctuations? on the basis of comprehensive use of various research methods, such as theoretical analysis, normative analysis, empirical analysis, case study, and so on, the impact of asset price volatility on inflation,The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the impact of financial stability, the impact of monetary policy on asset prices, and the coping strategies of monetary policy are studied.1.Judging from the impact of asset price fluctuations on inflation in China, both in the long run and in the short term, asset price fluctuations have had a significant impact on inflation.Moreover, the impact of real estate price on inflation is greater than that of stock price, so monetary policy should pay more attention to the fluctuation of real estate price.At present, the fluctuation of asset price in China has little effect on consumption and investment. Therefore, the fluctuation of asset price mainly influences the expectation of public inflation and has a significant impact on inflation.The generalized dynamic price index is proved to be a predictor of inflation. 2. 2.From the point of view of the impact of asset price fluctuation on financial stability, there is no mutually reinforcing mechanism between stock price and bank credit. Stock price has a certain influence on bank credit, and bank credit has little effect on stock price.But the real estate price and the bank credit already formed the certain degree mutually strengthens the function mechanism, the asset price fluctuation has caused the unnegligible influence to the financial stability through the bank credit.In terms of the impact of China's monetary policy on asset prices, the money supply is superior to interest rates in terms of both the size of the influence and the effectiveness of the impact.Therefore, monetary policy in response to asset price fluctuations, should give priority to the use of quantitative monetary policy instrument. 4.When dealing with the fluctuation of asset price, China's monetary policy should follow: while adhering to the goal of price stability, it should also actively deal with the fluctuation of asset price, construct a broad price index as a supplementary monitoring index of monetary policy objectives,The response of monetary policy to asset price volatility should be a combination of regularity and flexibility; choosing appropriate monetary policy tools to guard against financial risks of asset price volatility; monitoring changes in asset prices;To establish an early warning index system for asset price bubbles; to implement a "symmetrical" countercyclical operation of monetary policy; to coordinate monetary policy with macro-prudential supervision to guard against the risk of asset price fluctuations; and to strengthen international cooperation.Jointly deal with asset price bubbles and other strategies.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0;F293.3;F832.51;F224

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