绩优上市公司股利支付率估算模型的研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 22:24

本文选题：股利支付率　切入点：估算模型　出处：《哈尔滨理工大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：股利政策是上市公司利益分配的决策,也是投资者获得利益的重要途径。伴随对股票市场越来越深入的参与,投资者的长期投资心理也渐渐超过了其短期投机的心理。投资者更加关注企业是否能够可持续发展,是否有长远的投资价值。投资者想通过股利政策来了解企业的未来发展前景,而企业也希望能通过较好的股利政策才传达公司的信息,希望找到一个好的股利政策来吸引更多的投资者。对于股利政策的选择主要是从现金股利和股票股利进行选择。现金股利是最常见的股利支付的形式,现金股利的发放会减少公司的留存收益和现金,如果没有相应的盈利能力,质量低的上市公司若发放现金股利就会承担比较高的成本。以股票股利的方式发放股利不需要向股东发放现金,并且可以降低股价,有利于吸引投资者投资。同时股票股利存在一个弊端：发放股票股利只需要做账面记录因此模仿性很强,故而无法区分绩优上市公司和非绩优上市公司。本文以绩优上市公司为研究对象,试图构建绩优上市公司的股利支付率估算模型,从而为管理者选择最优的股利政策提供一个标准。因此本文的研究主要选择现金股利政策,并且由于外部影响因素难以衡量,本文对影响股利支付率的因素主要考虑公司的内部影响因素。通过对影响上市公司股利分配的内部因素进行简单的理论分析后,随即运用数学软件SPSS19.0对经过筛选的数据进行处理。进而得出影响股利支付率的因素及相应的影响程度。根据公司内部影响因素对股利支付率的影响,构建了绩优上市公司股利支付率估算模型。最后本文通过进一步检验证明所构建的股利支付率估算模型的可行性。本文的研究为公司管理层选择股利政策提供了一个标准,也为投资者提供了投资决策的参考依据。
[Abstract]:Dividend policy is not only the decision of profit distribution of listed companies, but also an important way for investors to obtain benefits.With more and more deep participation in the stock market, investors' long-term investment psychology gradually exceeds their short-term speculative psychology.Investors pay more attention to whether enterprises can be sustainable and whether they have long-term investment value.Investors want to understand the future development of enterprises through dividend policy, and enterprises also hope to convey the company's information through a better dividend policy, hoping to find a good dividend policy to attract more investors.The choice of dividend policy is mainly from cash dividend and stock dividend.Cash dividend is the most common form of dividend payment. The cash dividend will reduce the company's retained earnings and cash. If there is no corresponding profitability, the low quality listed company will bear higher cost if it pays cash dividend.Dividends paid in the form of stock dividends do not require cash to be issued to shareholders and can reduce share prices and help attract investors to invest.At the same time, there is a drawback of stock dividend: it is difficult to distinguish the outstanding listed company from the non-outstanding listed company because it only needs to make the book record and the imitation is very strong.In this paper, we try to construct the dividend rate estimation model of the outstanding listed companies, so as to provide a standard for managers to choose the best dividend policy.Therefore, the paper mainly chooses the cash dividend policy, and because the external influence factors are difficult to measure, the factors that affect the dividend payment rate mainly consider the internal factors of the company.After a simple theoretical analysis of the internal factors affecting the dividend distribution of listed companies, the selected data are processed by the mathematical software SPSS19.0.Then the factors affecting dividend payment rate and the corresponding influence degree are obtained.According to the influence of internal factors on dividend payment rate, a model for estimating dividend payment rate of outstanding listed companies is established.Finally, the paper proves the feasibility of the model by further test.The research in this paper provides a standard for management to choose dividend policy and a reference for investors to make investment decisions.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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