人民币汇率波动对中美贸易影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-08 10:22

本文选题：中美贸易　切入点：汇率波动　出处：《上海外国语大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：作为经济全球化的表现，国际贸易已经越发显现其在推动世界经济发展进程当中的作用和地位。作为当代国际社会两个贸易大国，世界上最大的发展中国家中国和世界上最大的发达国家美国之间的贸易自然最为引人关注。随着两国经济发展以及各个领域的合作的加深、两国的经济结构以及出口产品组成的上的差异，两国的贸易往来越发密切，贸易额也不断攀升。目前，中美已经互为对方第二大贸易伙伴国。但是，随着中美贸易在各方面突飞猛进的发展，贸易摩擦也日趋增多，这其中为主的就是中美贸易失衡问题，中国已经成为美国贸易逆差来源国当中贸易逆差额最大的国家，这不但激起了中美贸易更多的摩擦而且也引起了整个国际贸易环境的不稳定。关于中美贸易摩擦的原因，美方归结为我国人为压低人民币汇率，并多次在国际场合指责我国的人民币政策，要求人民币升值。我国在2005年7月21日宣布实行以市场供求为基础，参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度，人民币开始逐步升值。自我国2005年汇改至今，人民币汇率虽然一直处于上升通道，但是中美贸易逆差一直持续存在。那么人民币汇率问题究竟是否是中美贸易巨额逆差的原因所在，这一问题也引起了国内外学者的研究和关注。本文在总结国内外文献资料的基础上，，介绍了有关汇率波动和贸易收支的关系的理论发展，然后介绍了人民币汇率机制的历史沿革以及人民币汇率波动对我国对外贸易的影响，进而，对人民币实际汇率与中美贸易进行统计描述，建立计量模型，根据中美贸易2005年9月到2012年4月之间的月度数据进行统计分析，得出了人民币实际汇率波动并不是影响中美贸易的决定性因素，真正造成中美贸易失衡的原因在于其他一些深层次因素的结论。最后，本文给出了自己的政策建议和对于中美贸易不平衡的进一步思考。
[Abstract]:As a manifestation of economic globalization, international trade has increasingly shown its role and position in promoting the development of world economy.The trade between China, the world's largest developing country, and the United States, the world's largest developed country, as two major trading countries in the contemporary international community, naturally attracts most attention.With the deepening of economic development and cooperation in various fields and the differences in economic structure and composition of export products, the trade between the two countries has become more and more close and the volume of trade between the two countries has been rising.At present, China and the United States have become each other's second largest trading partner.This has not only aroused more friction between China and the United States, but also caused instability in the international trading environment as a whole.As to the causes of Sino-US trade frictions, the US side attributed it to the artificially low exchange rate of the RMB in China, and repeatedly criticized China's RMB policy in the international arena, demanding the appreciation of the RMB.On July 21, 2005, China announced the implementation of a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies, and the RMB began to appreciate gradually.Since China's exchange rate reform in 2005, the RMB exchange rate has been rising, but the trade deficit between China and the United States has been persistent.Well, whether the RMB exchange rate is the cause of the huge trade deficit between China and the United States has also aroused the research and attention of domestic and foreign scholars.On the basis of summarizing the literature at home and abroad, this paper introduces the theoretical development of the relationship between exchange rate fluctuation and trade income and expenditure, and then introduces the historical evolution of RMB exchange rate mechanism and the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China's foreign trade.Then, the real exchange rate of RMB and Sino-US trade are statistically described, and a measurement model is established. The statistical analysis is carried out according to the monthly data of Sino-US trade from September 2005 to April 2012.It is concluded that the fluctuation of RMB's real exchange rate is not the decisive factor affecting Sino-US trade, and the reason for the trade imbalance between China and the United States lies in some other deep-seated factors.Finally, the paper gives its own policy suggestions and further reflection on the trade imbalance between China and the United States.
【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.7;F224

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