消费习惯形成、货币政策与中国经济波动——MIU模型与校准分析

发布时间：2018-04-08 10:26

本文选题：经济波动　切入点：货币政策　出处：《南开经济研究》2013年02期

【摘要】：金融创新和货币政策因素对实体经济的影响越来越突出,经济现实需要我们构建包含货币政策的宏观经济波动模型。在中国的养老保险制度、社会保障制度和各项保险事业真正完善之前,根植于传统文化习俗和制度安排的消费习惯一时间很难改变,因此,本文建立了引入消费习惯形成因素的内含货币效用模型。经过校准分析和计量实证,本文认为,我国居民消费具有明显的习惯形成特征,引入消费习惯形成的MIU模型对中国现实经济有较好的拟合效果,能够解释产出波动的98%,与未引入消费习惯形成的基本RBC模型相比,对消费波动的解释能力显著提高。货币冲击对名义利率和通货膨胀率影响较大,可以解释其11.36%和10.27%的波动。货币冲击的初始影响小于技术冲击且持续时间较短。
[Abstract]:The influence of financial innovation and monetary policy on the real economy is more and more prominent. The economic reality requires us to construct a macroeconomic fluctuation model including monetary policy.Before China's old-age insurance system, social security system and various insurance undertakings were really improved, it was difficult to change the consumption habits rooted in traditional cultural customs and institutional arrangements for a time.This paper sets up an implicit monetary utility model which introduces the forming factors of consumption habits.Through calibrating analysis and econometric demonstration, this paper holds that Chinese residents' consumption has obvious characteristics of habit formation, and the MIU model of consumption habit formation has better fitting effect on China's real economy.Compared with the basic RBC model, which can explain the fluctuation of output, the ability of explaining the fluctuation of consumption is improved significantly.Currency shocks have a greater impact on nominal interest rates and inflation rates, explaining their volatility of 11.36 percent and 10.27 percent.The initial impact of monetary shock is smaller than that of technology shock and the duration is shorter.
【作者单位】：南京大学经济学院;建设银行辽宁省分行;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“中国宏观经济数据校准和改进方法研究”(项目号:10BJY017) 江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目
【分类号】：F822.0;F124;F224

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