货币政策透明度对宏观经济内部均衡的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-14 05:17

本文选题：货币政策透明度 + 宏观经济内部均衡　；参考：《湖南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：多数情况下宏观经济内部处于失衡状态，需要货币政策进行调控来达到“反通胀”和“促增长”的目标。货币政策透明度作为传统货币政策工具的补充，通过对市场上的通胀预期进行有效引导，提高货币政策有效性，可以稳定物价水平并以此促进经济增长。本文研究的正是货币政策透明度对于宏观经济内部均衡的影响。近年来我国央行一直强调前瞻性的货币政策，意图通过影响市场预期达到预定的货币政策效果。货币政策透明度作为前瞻性货币政策的前提条件，对正确引导市场预期至关重要，因此分析货币政策透明度对宏观经济内部均衡的影响具有重要的研究价值和现实意义。本文在货币政策透明度和宏观经济内部均衡理论的研究基础上，对Woodford（1999）的保守中央银行模型进行修正，加入通货膨胀预期这一传导中介，建立了货币政策透明度影响宏观经济内部均衡的数理模型，结果发现货币政策透明度可以降低通胀—产出波动，但不影响通胀与产出的平均水平。此外，本文的实证部分运用基于11个发达国家央行从1999年至2009年的数据建立的变截距双向固定效应面板模型检验发现货币政策透明度可以降低通胀水平并提高经济增长水平。除此之外，本文的实证部分还对最优货币政策透明度假说进行了检验。通过在实证方程中引入货币政策透明度指标的二次项，以此来考察货币政策透明度的过度提高对于宏观经济内部均衡的影响是否存在边际递减的效应。结果发现货币政策透明度对宏观经济内部均衡的影响存在边际递减效应，从而验证了最优货币政策透明度假说。在实证最后部分，本文基于同样的样本数据通过建立面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型对货币政策透明度与通货膨胀率之间的关系进行了更为深入的研究，通过对PVAR估计结果与脉冲响应图的分析，结果证明11国央行的信息披露不仅可以让市场对于通货膨胀进行调整而且调整的方向与央行意图的方向相一致。最后本文对我国中央银行透明度现状进行了简要的分析，并提出一些政策建议。鉴于我国央行货币政策透明度一直显著低于发达国家的平均水平，我国有必要采取措施进一步提升透明度水平，发挥通货膨胀预期管理机制的作用，建立一个更为透明、效率更高的政策调控框架。
[Abstract]:In most cases the internal macroeconomic imbalances require monetary policy regulation to achieve "anti-inflation" and "growth" goals.As a supplement of the traditional monetary policy tools, the transparency of monetary policy can stabilize the price level and promote economic growth by effectively guiding inflation expectations in the market and improving the effectiveness of monetary policy.This paper studies the impact of monetary policy transparency on macroeconomic internal equilibrium.In recent years, China's central bank has been emphasizing forward-looking monetary policy, with the intention of achieving a predetermined monetary policy effect by influencing market expectations.As a precondition of forward-looking monetary policy, transparency of monetary policy is very important to guide market expectations correctly. Therefore, it is of great value and practical significance to analyze the influence of transparency of monetary policy on the internal equilibrium of macro-economy.Based on the study of the transparency of monetary policy and the theory of internal equilibrium of macro-economy, this paper modifies Woodford's conservative central bank model and adds inflation expectation as a transmission medium.The mathematical model of monetary policy transparency affecting the internal equilibrium of macro-economy is established. The results show that monetary policy transparency can reduce the fluctuation of inflation and output, but it does not affect the average level of inflation and output.In addition, the empirical part of this paper uses the variable intercept bidirectional fixed effect panel model based on the data of 11 developed countries' central banks from 1999 to 2009, and finds that the transparency of monetary policy can reduce inflation and improve the level of economic growth.In addition, the empirical part also tests the transparency hypothesis of optimal monetary policy.By introducing the quadratic term of the transparency index of monetary policy into the empirical equation, this paper investigates whether the excessive improvement of the transparency of monetary policy has a marginal diminishing effect on the internal equilibrium of the macro economy.The results show that the influence of monetary policy transparency on the macroeconomic internal equilibrium has marginal diminishing effect, which verifies the hypothesis of optimal monetary policy transparency.In the last part of the empirical study, based on the same sample data, this paper makes a further study on the relationship between monetary policy transparency and inflation rate through the establishment of panel vector autoregressive PVAR-model.Through the analysis of the PVAR estimation results and the impulse response diagram, it is proved that the information disclosure of the central banks of the 11 countries can not only make the market adjust for inflation, but also adjust in the direction consistent with the direction of the central bank's intention.Finally, this paper briefly analyzes the present situation of China's central bank transparency, and puts forward some policy suggestions.In view of the fact that the transparency of China's central bank's monetary policy has been significantly lower than the average level of developed countries, it is necessary for China to take measures to further enhance the level of transparency, give play to the role of inflation expectation management mechanism, and establish a more transparent system.A more efficient policy regulatory framework.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F124;F822.0

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