基于资本流动模型的货币政策产业效应研究

发布时间：2018-04-14 06:00

本文选题：货币政策 + 非对称性　；参考：《湘潭大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：货币政策产业效应作为货币政策非对称效应的重要议题，一直是理论界及宏观决策者研究和关注的热点问题。产业结构是否合理，直接关系到国民经济能否持续、健康、协调发展。传统的理论研究大多是对货币政策的进行总量效应分析，并且假设货币政策对整个经济影响一致，或在产业间的效应均衡。然而，事实上这种假设并不完全成立。近年来，货币政策产业非对称效应现象也逐渐被证实，但是由于缺乏相应的实证检验，对其产生机制及决定因素并未形成统一的认识，因此，深入研究货币政策产业非对称效应的形成机制，为更好的发挥货币政策调节产业结构功能，及对货币政策的制定都具有十分重要的理论及现实意义。以货币政策产业非对称效应存在的理论为基础，深入探讨这种非对称效应存在的理论根源——产业间的资本流动，从而试图打开实证分析的理论黑箱。通过对货币政策的产业传导、资本在产业间流动、产业结构变化的途径机制进行理论分析，并借鉴Jefrey WurgIer资本配置模型，结合我国产业结构特征，将货币供应量、产业增加值、产业固定资产投资、产业景气指数指标纳入，构建产业资本配置效率模型，并以第一、二、三产业为研究对象，采用2001-2010年的季度数据进行实证分析。实证分析结果表明：在统一货币政策调控下，由于资本逐利性、避险性、收益性特征，产业资本会受产业利润率、产业景气指数、货币供应量等影响而在产业间相互配置，从而使产业因资本要素投入规模不同而发展不均，，即货币政策产业非对称效应。其中第二产业受货币政策影响最强烈，其次是第三产业，第一产业受货币政策反应最迟钝。本文的创新之处主要有两点：一是研究视角上的创新。当前国内外学术界将货币政策和产业结构结合，并以总量调整和结构调整结合的研究并不多，尤其从宏观视角和中观层面上，货币政策产业非对称效应的研究相对较少，其中分析其形成原因和机制的探讨则更加有限。本文从资本流动这一角度来揭示货币政策产业非对称效应产业的根源，具有一定的创新性。二是模型上的创新。在Jeffrey Wurgler的资本配置效率模型的基础上，结合我国货币政策与产业发展的实际情况，将货币供应量增长率、行业景气指数、产业增加值等相关变量引入模型进行实证分析，以此说明资本流动致使货币政策产业非对称效应的成因机理，具有一定的创新价值。
[Abstract]:As an important topic of asymmetric effect of monetary policy, the industrial effect of monetary policy has always been a hot topic in the field of theory and macroscopical decision makers.Whether the industrial structure is reasonable or not is directly related to the sustainable, healthy and coordinated development of the national economy.The traditional theoretical research is mostly to analyze the aggregate effect of monetary policy, and assume that monetary policy has a consistent effect on the whole economy, or the effect equilibrium between industries.In fact, however, this assumption is not entirely true.In recent years, the phenomenon of asymmetric effect of monetary policy industry has been gradually proved, but due to the lack of corresponding empirical test, there is no unified understanding of its mechanism and determinants.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the formation mechanism of asymmetric effect of monetary policy industry in order to better play the function of adjusting industrial structure of monetary policy and to formulate monetary policy.Based on the theory of the existence of asymmetric effect in monetary policy industry, this paper probes into the theoretical root of the existence of asymmetric effect, the capital flow between industries, and tries to open the theoretical black box of empirical analysis.Based on the theoretical analysis of the industrial transmission of monetary policy, the capital flow among industries and the mechanism of industrial structure change, and drawing lessons from the Jefrey WurgIer capital allocation model, combining the characteristics of China's industrial structure, the money supply and industrial added value are put forward.Industrial fixed asset investment and industrial prosperity index are included to construct the industrial capital allocation efficiency model. The first, second and third industries are taken as the research object, and the quarterly data from 2001-2010 are used to carry on the empirical analysis.The results of empirical analysis show that under the unified monetary policy regulation, industrial capital will be allocated to each other among industries because of the characteristics of profit driven, risk aversion and profitability, and industrial capital will be affected by industrial profit margin, industrial prosperity index, money supply and so on.Therefore, the industry is unevenly developed because of the different scale of capital input, that is, the asymmetric effect of monetary policy industry.The second industry is most strongly influenced by monetary policy, followed by the tertiary industry, and the first industry is the least responsive to monetary policy.The innovation of this paper has two main points: one is the innovation from the perspective of research.At present, there are few researches on the combination of monetary policy and industrial structure, and the combination of aggregate adjustment and structural adjustment, especially from the macro perspective and the meso level, the research on asymmetric effect of monetary policy industry is relatively few.Among them, the analysis of the causes and mechanism of its formation is more limited.This paper reveals the origin of asymmetric effect industry of monetary policy industry from the angle of capital flow.Second, the innovation on the model.On the basis of the capital allocation efficiency model of Jeffrey Wurgler and the actual situation of monetary policy and industry development in China, the paper introduces the relevant variables, such as money supply growth rate, industry boom index and industry added value, into the model for empirical analysis.It is of great value to explain the mechanism of asymmetric effect of monetary policy industry caused by capital flow.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F124;F822.0

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