人民币基本均衡汇率（FEER）研究

发布时间：2018-04-14 07:12

本文选题：人民币汇率 + 基本均衡汇率　；参考：《复旦大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着中国经济实力的不断增强,中国在国际经济贸易中所扮演的角色也越来越重要,人民币汇率的均衡问题就成为国际社会关注的热点问题。一直以来,国际学者和专家对人民币汇率的低估和高估的争论从未间断过,特别是2005年以来,国际社会普遍认为人民币存在低估,要求人民币升值的呼声不断,人民币面临较大的升值压力。在这种国际社会的压力下,人民币在过去的几年里升值幅度明显,那么对于现在人民币而言,是否还存在如同西方国家所认为的低估,或者我们也可以反过来考虑,人民币是否已经升值过度或已被高估,而这种低估或高估的程度又是多少,对经济产生怎样的后果?本文就这一系列问题,借鉴相关的均衡汇率研究理论进行讨论和研究。首先,我们提出本文研究目的和意义,并总结了国内外有关人民币均衡汇率研究的理论和方法。通过对国内外学者关于人民币均衡实际有效汇率的分析总结,我们选择基本均衡汇率模型对均衡汇率进行研究。其次,我们运用基本均衡汇率理论对人民币的实际有效汇率进行了计量分析。我们根据中国经济的实际情况对影响人民币汇率的因素进行了合理选择,这些因素包括国内产出、世界贸易量、贸易条件和外汇储备,从而使得该模型更加符合中国的现实经济。第三,对人民币基本均衡汇率模型进行实证分析。在分析中,使用的是1980年至2011年的年度数据,对数据的平稳性进行了单位根检验,同时,考虑样本期的因素,进行了E-G两步法的协整分析方法。最后根据实证检验得出相应的结论。第四,结合前文的分析,本文就近期的人民币汇率波动情况进行了现实分析,指出了名义汇率波动与实际有效汇率波动之间的区别。接着结合中国的现实经济情况,提出了相应的政策性建议。人民币基本均衡汇率的研究拓宽了人民币汇率问题研究的视野,强调了汇率是多个变量共同影响的结果。实证的检验使我们对人民币的均衡汇率问题有一个清晰的量化认识。
[Abstract]:With the increasing of China's economic strength, China plays a more and more important role in international economic and trade. The equilibrium of RMB exchange rate has become a hot issue in the international community.For a long time, international scholars and experts have never stopped arguing about the undervaluation and overvaluation of the RMB exchange rate. Especially since 2005, the international community has generally believed that the RMB is undervalued, and the calls for RMB appreciation have been constant.The RMB is facing greater pressure to appreciate.Under the pressure of the international community, the RMB has appreciated significantly in the past few years. Well, as regards the current RMB, is it still undervalued as thought by Western countries, or we can also consider the other way around?Has the RMB been overvalued or overvalued, and to what extent is this undervaluation or overvaluation, and what are the consequences for the economy?This paper discusses and studies the theory of equilibrium exchange rate with reference to this series of problems.First of all, we put forward the purpose and significance of this paper, and summarize the theory and method of RMB equilibrium exchange rate research at home and abroad.By analyzing and summarizing the actual effective exchange rate of RMB equilibrium, we choose the basic equilibrium exchange rate model to study the equilibrium exchange rate.Secondly, we use the basic equilibrium exchange rate theory to analyze the real effective exchange rate of RMB.According to the actual situation of China's economy, we have made a reasonable choice of the factors affecting the RMB exchange rate, including domestic output, world trade volume, terms of trade and foreign exchange reserves.So that the model more in line with China's real economy.Third, empirical analysis of RMB basic equilibrium exchange rate model.In the analysis, the annual data from 1980 to 2011 are used. The unit root test of the stability of the data is carried out. At the same time, considering the factors of sample period, the co-integration analysis method of E-G two-step method is carried out.Finally, according to the empirical test, the corresponding conclusions are drawn.Fourthly, based on the previous analysis, this paper analyzes the recent fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and points out the difference between nominal exchange rate fluctuation and real effective exchange rate fluctuation.Then combined with the reality of China's economic situation, put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.The study of RMB basic equilibrium exchange rate broadens the perspective of RMB exchange rate research and emphasizes that the exchange rate is the result of the common influence of multiple variables.The empirical test makes us have a clear quantitative understanding of the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F224

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