我国信托业市场绩效影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-04-14 08:26

本文选题：信托业 + SCP　；参考：《西南财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：自上个世纪七十年代末,我国成立了第一家中国国际信托投资公司——中信信托以来,新中国的信托业重新恢复了活力,逐渐成为我国重要的金融组成部分。与此同时,在信托业发展过程中越来越多的问题也接踵而来,由于信托公司对自身定位的模糊不清和对本身信托发展业务模式和走向的不确定性,导致了极低的公司经营效率和巨大的累积风险,最终导致了政府在上个世纪八十年代三次和九十年代两次对信托业共进行了累计五次大规模清理整顿。信托公司数量由最多上千家缩减到目前的接近六十家,单个公司的平均规模有所扩大,资产的质量有所提高,信托公司缩量提质的结果是与其在金融系统中所起的作用和信托公司本身效率的重要性密不可分的。我国信托业在金融系统中承载的金融服务功能主要有两个：一是使用信托这个媒介连接实体经济与资金,以它特有的管理资产功能对资产进行风险分散化管理,有效的在资金和实体工程或技术项目上构建桥梁,从而为中国的经济建设服务；二是培育和发展市场化的金融力量。信托公司的效率和它的业务能否发挥信托“受人之托,代人理财”的本质对于我们国家金融体系的安全至关重要,如果信托公司效率低下或者信托公司的市场定位失控,不仅不会给中国的经济建设做出自己的贡献,反而会成为中国金融体系中的一颗定时炸弹,一个风险聚集的毒瘤,届时受到冲击的将不仅仅是我国的信托业,还会冲击我国的经济建设和改革开放,给整个实体经济和金融业的发展带来严重的负面影响。在2001年10月1日颁布了《中华人民共和国信托法》之后,2007年3月1日《信托公司管理办法》和《信托公司集合资金信托计划管理办法》也正式地颁布,为今后信托公司市场定位、经营模式转型和发展战略调整指明了方向,其目前处于中心的融资业务模式也会因为上述法规的实施发生实质性改变。2010年8月24日《信托公司净资本管理办法》的正式公布和实施,使得信托业由原来的“一法两规”变为“一法三规”。上述法律法规的实施表面上是信托公司的业务规模和方向似乎受到了更加严厉的政策监管和规则限制,信托公司的利润会受到很大的影响,但是实际上这是一种对信托行业以后从业行为更进一步地正确引导,有效防止其风险聚集并使其以特有的方式服务于中国的经济,是国家有目的,有步骤地让信托回归其信托本质的举措,非常有利于中国信托业长远的发展。“一法三规”的落实使得信托业急需完成盈利方式的转变,如何能使信托公司的经营更加专业化和创新化,如何打造一个合理控制风险并符合社会需求的产品结构,如何有效的将自己的特色发挥出来,将会成为我国信托公司以后逐步调整转型的主要发展方向。在新规的实施和最近两年中国政府为了控制通货膨胀实施的一系列的货币紧缩政策的宏观金融背景下,信托业在中国迎来了一个较好的发展环境,业务扩张迅速,资产总量连创新高,很快的体现出了对中国经济的重要性和支持性。但是由于信托业发展初期规范性的缺乏,它的发展没有像中国银行业那样平稳高速地增长,而是历尽曲折,有时候甚至停滞不前。所以国内对信托公司市场绩效相关影响因素的研究比较少,对于信托的讨论更多的停留在信托制度、法律法规和房地产投资信托基金(REITs)等的研究上。而新规的实施一定会加剧信托公司在市场份额上和公司效率上的竞争,所以分析市场结构和公司效率以及其他相关影响因素对于我国信托公司市场绩效的影响并针对分析结果提出相应的结论和对策是非常有必要的。为了有效地探究我国信托业市场绩效及其影响因素,结合我国信托业发展尚处于初级阶段,本文决定检验产业组织学中哈佛学派的SCP理论,即“市场—绩效”假说和芝加哥学派的“绩效—市场”假说在我国信托业的应用并分析影响我国信托业市场绩效的决定因素,最后对我国信托业市场现状以及经营中所存在的问题提出相应的建议。通过计量经济学实证分析方法检验我国信托业市场绩效影响因素之后发现,“市场—绩效”假说和“绩效—市场”假说并不存在于我国信托业市场。利用市场份额指标、市场集中度衡量指标CR和赫芬达尔指数HHI度量了信托业的市场竞争程度,结果表明我国信托业的市场结构基本上属于低寡占型,而且市场集中度(CR)还有进一步下降的趋势。由HHI指标来看,我国信托业HHI1000,为非集中市场。进一步地,经过观察后发现信托公司创新能力严重不足,产品差异化很小,公司的净利润受市场资金量波动以及国家政策影响较大。在数据方面,本文使用连续且具有代表性的四十家国内信托公司2007年到2010年披露的年报信息作为实证的面板数据(Panel Data),对信托业市场结构与绩效(本文选用自有资产和信托资产的加权收益率来代表市场绩效)之间的关系进行了实证研究,在本文的最后提出了相关的建议和政策。首先,文章第一部分从本文选题背景入手,根据所要研究的方向,逐步理清本文的研究思路。同时介绍了研究意义和研究方法,并从整体勾勒出文章的结构框架。第一部分最后指出本文可能的创新之处和不足之处。重点是指出信托的重要性用来凸显本文研究的意义。文章的第二部分主要对文献综述进行了阐述,并介绍本文所要检验的市场绩效影响因素方面相关基础产业经济学理论,为实证分析信托业市场绩效的影响因素做好铺垫。在理论方面,对市场结构和绩效之间相互的影响关系一直是产业组织理论中的一个重要研究领域,对于二者的探讨主要存在两种主流理论：一种是哈佛学派(Harvard School)的“市场—绩效”假说,他们认为市场结构决定市场绩效；另一种是美国芝加哥经济学派(Chicago School of Economics)的“绩效—市场”假说,他们认为企业自身的效率决定市场结构。直到现在,对于市场结构与市场绩效之间的关系始终还是学者们争论的焦点。就很多经用实证的分析方法进行研究的国内外文献来看,得出的结论有可能因为地区的划分,时间段的划分,行业的划分而不同。文章的第三部分主要描述了我国信托业的发展历程,同时对市场集中度和市场份额等基本概念进行了介绍,对论文第五部分实证分析信托业市场绩效需要用到的市场结构指标进行了计算。文章的第四部分重点介绍了对于信托公司经营效率的测度,运用DEA(数据包络分析)方法,然后设定模型变量,输入所需数据,计算出样本信托公司技术效率和技术进步及其分解后的具体指标数据,最后结合我国信托业的实情,宏观经济和政策变化对指标进行了解读。文章的第五部分是论文的重点,通过借助计量分析软件Eviews6.0来测度了设定的变量对经营绩效的影响。以市场集中度、市场份额、公司效率、2007年—2010年四年平均贷款利率等相关数据作为解释变量,经过以上全部或者部分解释变量的分别建模测度影响后发现：市场份额是影响信托公司市场绩效最重要的因素,在显著性水平比较高的情况下,年平均贷款利率也对市场绩效有比较大的影响,市场集中度和公司效率对于市场绩效的影响并不明显。最后对实证结果做出相应的分析并提出了相应的建议,比如应大力拓展信托公司的市场份额、扩大规模努力创造规模经济效益、信托公司应通过整合等手段增强市场集中度,做富有竞争力的市场主体等建议,并且还认为信托公司还应该积极创新信托产品,加快业务转型。银监会等监管部门也要加强监管和引导,在控制住信托公司风险的前提下,适当鼓励信托公司扩大规模,为增强信托公司之间的相互竞争创造条件。本文的第六部分总结分析了我国信托业的市场绩效及其影响因素,并对改善信托业的市场绩效提出自己的观点和风险控制对策。
[Abstract]:Since the last century since the end of 70s, China established the first China International Trust Investment Company, CITIC Trust, the trust industry in the new China restored vitality, has gradually become an important financial component of our country. At the same time, in the process of the development of the trust industry in more and more problems, because of the trust of vague positioning itself and development to trust business model and to uncertainty, leading to the company's operating efficiency is very low and the huge cumulative risk, eventually led to the government in the last century in 80s three and 90s two of the trust industry has accumulated five large-scale rectification. The number of trust companies by most thousands down to the present close to sixty, the average size of a single company has expanded, asset quality has improved, and the node trust shrinking Fruit is inseparable from the role it plays in the financial system and the importance of the efficiency of the trust company itself.
There are two main bearing of China's trust industry in the financial system of financial services: one is to use the media to connect the real economy and the trust funds for risk diversification of assets management to its unique asset management, effective construction of the bridge in the capital and entity engineering or technical project, so as to China economic the construction of service; two is to cultivate and develop market financial strength. Trust business efficiency and it can play a "generation of financial trust entrusted by the people," the essence of our country is very important for the safety of the financial system, if the market position of trust companies is inefficient or trust company out of control, not only to make their own contribution China the economic construction, it will become a time bomb Chinese in the financial system, a risk aggregation of cancer, the impact will not only at that time It is the trust industry of our country, and it will also impact the economic construction and reform and opening up of our country, and bring serious negative impact on the development of the whole real economy and the financial industry.
After in October 1, 2001 promulgated the "People's Republic of China law", March 1, 2007 "trust management" and "trust capital trust program also formally promulgated the measures on the administration of the trust company, for the future market positioning, pointed out the direction of the transformation of the management mode and development strategy adjustment, the center is currently in the business model of financing will be because of the implementation of the above regulations of the substantive change of.2010 management in August 24th" trust net capital "formally promulgated and implemented, the trust industry from the original" one law and two regulations "to" one law and three regulations ". The implementation of laws and regulations on the surface of the trust company business scale and direction seems to be more severe the policy supervision and regulation of the trust company profits will be greatly affected, but in fact it is a kind of trust industry after working for For further guidance, to avoid the risk of accumulation and the unique way to serve the Chinese economy, there is a national goal, step by step to return to the essence of trust trust measure, is very conducive to the development of the trust industry in the future. "China change one law and three regulations" the implementation of the trust industry the urgent task of profit, how to make the operation of trust companies more professional and innovative product structure, how to build a reasonable risk control and meet the needs of society, how to make their own characteristics play out, will become China's trust companies will gradually adjust the main direction of the transformation.
In the implementation of the new regulations and Chinese government to control inflation in recent years carried out a series of tightening monetary policy macro financial background, trust industry ushered in a good development environment in Chinese, business expanded rapidly, the total assets of even a new high, quickly reflect the importance of Chinese economy and support. But because of the early development of the trust industry lack of normative, its development is not like China banking as steady and rapid growth, but through the twists and turns, sometimes even stagnant. So the domestic market performance of trust factors less, for the trust discussion focus more on the trust system, laws and regulations of real estate investment Trust Fund (REITs) and so on. And the implementation of the new regulations will intensify competition in the market share of the trust company and the company's efficiency, so It is necessary to analyze the impact of market structure and company efficiency and other related factors on the market performance of trust companies in China, and put forward corresponding conclusions and countermeasures according to the analysis results.
In order to effectively explore the market performance of China's trust industry and its influencing factors, combined with the development of our trust industry is still in the primary stage, we decided to test the theory of industrial organization in the Harvard School's SCP theory, namely "market performance" hypothesis of Chicago school and the "performance market" hypothesis in China's trust industry and analysis factors that affect the performance of the trust industry in China, and finally put forward the corresponding suggestions on the current situation of China's trust industry market and operating problems. Through econometric empirical analysis method to test the performance of China's trust industry market factors after the discovery, the "market performance" hypothesis and the "performance market" hypothesis is not in the trust industry in China market. The market share index, market concentration index and Beh Finn Dahl index CR HHI model to measure the trust degree of market competition, the results of table The market structure of China's trust industry basically belongs to the low oligopoly, but the degree of market concentration (CR) and further downward trend. By HHI indicators, China's trust industry HHI1000, non centralized market. Further, observe that the trust company is a serious lack of innovation capacity, product differentiation is very small and the company's net profit by the amount of money market fluctuations and the impact of national policies. In terms of data, this paper using the continuous and the representative of the forty domestic trust companies from 2007 to 2010 the annual disclosure of information as the panel data empirical (Panel Data), the trust industry market structure and performance (the own assets and trust the asset weighted yield to represent the market performance) of the relationship between the empirical research, finally puts forward relevant suggestions and policies.
First of all, the first part of this paper from the background, according to the research direction, gradually clarify the ideas of this research. It also introduces the research significance and research methods, and outlines the structure of the framework as a whole. The first part finally pointed out the possible innovations and shortcomings. The key is that the importance of trust for this paper highlights the significance of the study.
The second part mainly expatiates on the literature review, and introduces the factors affecting the market performance of this paper is to examine the basic aspects of industrial economics theory, to pave the way for the empirical analysis of factors influencing the trust industry market performance. In theory, the interaction between market structure and performance has been an important research field in the industrial organization theory, to explore the two mainstream theories mainly has two kinds: one is the school of Harvard (Harvard School) "market performance" hypothesis, they believe that the market structure determines the market performance; the other is the Chicago School of Economics (Chicago School of Economics) "market performance" hypothesis they think, efficiency in enterprises determines the market structure. Until now, the relationship between the market structure and market performance is still controversy among scholars There are many domestic and foreign literatures that have been studied by empirical analysis. The conclusion is likely to be different because of the division of regions, the division of time periods and the division of industries.
The third part of the article mainly describes the development process of China's trust industry. At the same time, it introduces the basic concepts of market concentration and market share. The fifth part is the empirical analysis of the market structure indicators of the trust industry's market performance.
The fourth part mainly introduces the measure for the management efficiency of trust company, the use of DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) method, and then set the input variables of the model, the data needed to calculate the sample of the trust company technical efficiency and technical progress and specific indicators of decomposition of the data, combining the facts of China's trust industry, macro economy and policy changes for the interpretation of the index.
The fifth part is the focus of the paper, through econometric analysis software Eviews6.0 to measure the set of variables on business performance. The market concentration, market share, company efficiency, from 2007 to 2010 four years the average loan interest rates and other related data as the explanatory variable, after all or some of these variables are modeling analysis of the impact of that market share is the most important factor affecting the market performance of trust company, the significant level is high, the average loan interest rates have a relatively large impact on the market performance, market concentration and market performance for the company's efficiency is not obvious. Finally make a corresponding analysis of the empirical results and puts forward some corresponding suggestions, such as trust companies should vigorously expand market share, expand the scale of efforts to create economies of scale, the trust company shall pass The integration and other means to enhance the degree of market concentration, make the competitive market, and that the company also should actively trust product innovation, accelerate business transformation. The CBRC and other regulatory departments should strengthen supervision and guidance, in the premise of risk control of trust companies, trust companies appropriate incentives to expand the scale of creation the conditions for competition between the enhancement of the trust company.
The sixth part of this paper summarizes and analyzes the market performance and its influencing factors of China's trust industry, and puts forward its own view and risk control countermeasures for improving the market performance of trust industry.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.49;F224

【参考文献】