中国通货膨胀的汇率驱动效应研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 09:21

本文选题：通货膨胀 + 人民币汇率　；参考：《天津财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：物价与汇率是开放经济条件下资源优化配置的重要指标,宏观经济内外均衡的实现,需要有一个稳定的物价体系和汇率政策。而且物价与汇率作为一国货币对内价值与对外价值的量化指标,理论上两者的走向是一致的,然而近几年人民币升值和通货膨胀共存的“双高”现象向理论提出了挑战,在中国特定的经济增长结构下,研究通货膨胀的汇率驱动效应显的非常有必要。首先,通过对世界经济增长共生模式内涵的阐述,确立了本文的研究视角,将局限于国内总供给和总需求的分析,拓展到了全球范围上的广义二维视角。并通过对共生模式下中国经济增长所表现出的外部依赖性特征分析,将外部需求、外部供给和国际资源品价格等因素纳入了通货膨胀驱动因素的分析框架中。其次,本文通过将典型家庭的总体消费品分为非贸易品、通过进口中间产品在本国生产的消费品和纯粹进口的消费品,将国内厂商的生产要素分为劳动投入和资源品投入,由此拓展了新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线、货币需求函数和IS曲线,建立起了本文分析的理论框架。最后,本文运用SVAR模型进行实证研究,运用2005年7月至2011年12月的数据,结果表明以出口总额衡量的外部需求冲击是人民币汇率变动的主要因素,而国内物价、货币供应名义变量对其影响较小。货币供应量和国际大宗商品价格对国内物价具有明显的正向影响。人民币升值对通货膨胀具有负向的影响,但方差分解结果表明升值对通胀的抑制作用有限。
[Abstract]:Price and exchange rate are important indicators for the optimal allocation of resources in open economy. To realize the internal and external equilibrium of macro economy, we need a stable price system and exchange rate policy.Moreover, as a quantitative index of a country's currency's internal and external value, price and exchange rate are in the same direction in theory. However, the phenomenon of "double high" of RMB appreciation and inflation in recent years has challenged the theory.Under the specific economic growth structure of China, it is necessary to study the exchange rate driving effect of inflation.Firstly, by expounding the connotation of the symbiotic model of world economic growth, the author establishes the research perspective of this paper, which is limited to the analysis of domestic total supply and total demand, and extends to the generalized two-dimensional perspective on the global scale.Through the analysis of the external dependence characteristics of China's economic growth under the symbiotic model, the external demand, external supply and international resource price are included in the analysis framework of the inflation driving factors.Secondly, by dividing the total consumer goods of typical households into non-tradable products, by importing consumer goods produced in our country and pure imported consumer goods, the factors of production of domestic manufacturers are divided into labor inputs and resource inputs.The new Keynesian Phillips curve, money demand function and is curve are extended, and the theoretical framework of this paper is established.Finally, this paper uses the SVAR model to carry on the empirical research, uses the data from July 2005 to December 2011, the result shows that the external demand shock measured by the total export volume is the main factor of the RMB exchange rate change, while the domestic price.The nominal variable of money supply has little effect on it.Money supply and international commodity prices have a clear positive impact on domestic prices.RMB appreciation has a negative effect on inflation, but variance decomposition results show that appreciation has a limited effect on inflation.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.5;F224

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