人民币国际化推进过程中的问题研究

发布时间：2018-04-16 10:19

本文选题：人民币国际化 + 跨境贸易人民币结算　；参考：《华南理工大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：2008年国际金融危机爆发后，现有国际货币体系的弊端暴露无遗，在此背景下，中国政府第一次以官方名义提出“人民币国际化”战略。中国政府不断出台新的政策措施：开启跨境贸易和直接投资人民币结算；健全离岸人民币市场回流机制，允许境外人民币投资境内银行间债券市场和证券市场，推出小QFII，推动人民币国际化进程加速发展。在新的阶段，正确分析和认识推动人民币国际化过程中存在的问题，对最终实现人民币国际化具有十分重要的现实意义。本文采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法，首先对人民币国际化的发展现状进行了定性概括；通过构建货币国际化度指数测算了人民币国际化程度。当前推动人民币国际化存在的主要问题表现在推进方式和成本两个方面。人民币国际化推进方式可以概括为“跨境贸易+离岸市场”的人民币国际化模式，在这种模式框架下，通过主成份分析认为跨境贸易人民币结算的贸易基础薄弱，，依靠经常项目下人民币结算难以有效输出人民币；在离岸人民币市场上，人民币回流机制的健全则面临着“两难”。在推进人民币国际化的成本上，主要分析了因人民币国际化而导致的持有外汇资产的成本，截至2011年12月底，推进人民币国际化已使我国外汇储备增加了约1372.72亿美元，并且正遭受着中美利差和人民币升值的双重损失。在对“跨境贸易+离岸市场”的人民币国际化模式进行反思后，本文认为推进人民币国际化需注意以下几点：第一，依靠经常项目人民币结算的方式实现人民币走出去的思路需要调整，应创造条件鼓励跨境直接投资人民币结算和跨国公司使用人民币结算。第二，在离岸人民币市场回流机制的健全上，在国内金融改革尚未完成之际，应暂停出台新的可能倒逼资本项目开放的政策措施。第三，应严格遵照关于我国改革次序的共识。第四，人民币国际化是市场选择的结果，不应依靠行政力量去推动。
[Abstract]:After the international financial crisis broke out in 2008, the shortcomings of the existing international monetary system were exposed. Under this background, the Chinese government put forward the "RMB internationalization" strategy for the first time in the official name.The Chinese government has continuously introduced new policies and measures: opening cross-border trade and direct investment in renminbi settlement; improving the reflow mechanism of the offshore renminbi market and allowing foreign yuan to invest in the domestic inter-bank bond market and securities market.The introduction of small QFIIs to promote the internationalization of the renminbi to accelerate the process of development.In the new stage, the correct analysis and understanding of the problems existing in the process of promoting RMB internationalization are of great practical significance to the ultimate realization of RMB internationalization.By combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, this paper firstly summarizes the current situation of RMB internationalization qualitatively, and calculates the degree of RMB internationalization by constructing monetary internationalization index.At present, the main problems in promoting RMB internationalization are the way and cost.The way to promote RMB internationalization can be summed up as the RMB internationalization mode of "cross-border trade offshore market". Under the framework of this model, through principal component analysis, it is concluded that the trade foundation of RMB settlement in cross-border trade is weak.Relying on renminbi settlement under the current account is difficult to export effectively; in the offshore renminbi market, the integrity of the renminbi reflow mechanism faces a "dilemma".On the cost of promoting RMB internationalization, this paper mainly analyzes the cost of holding foreign exchange assets caused by RMB internationalization. By the end of December 2011, promoting RMB internationalization has increased China's foreign exchange reserves by about 137.272 billion US dollars.And is suffering a double loss of interest rate differentials between China and the United States and the appreciation of the yuan.After reflecting on the RMB internationalization model of "cross-border offshore market", this paper argues that the following points should be paid attention to in promoting RMB internationalization: first,It is necessary to adjust the thinking of RMB going out by relying on the RMB settlement of current account and to create conditions to encourage cross-border direct investment in RMB settlement and multinational companies to use RMB settlement.Second, when domestic financial reform has not yet been completed, new policy measures that could force the opening of capital accounts should be suspended on the sound of a return mechanism in the offshore renminbi market.Third, we should strictly abide by the consensus on the order of reform in China.Fourth, RMB internationalization is the result of market choice and should not be promoted by administrative forces.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

【引证文献】