我国超额货币供给的测量及成因研究

发布时间：2018-04-16 11:12

本文选题：超额货币供给 + 中国之谜　；参考：《华南理工大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：1978年以来，伴随着经济的快速增长，我国M2、M1平均年增速高达20%，远远超过经济增长率，与此同时我国金融发展指标M2/GDP一直呈现上升的趋势，2010年这一比例达到1.93，远远超过了世界上绝大多数国家，在此期间我国对应的物价水平仍然处在可控范围内。McKinnon（1993）研究美国经济对货币、产出与物价之间关系与传统货币数量论相违背的现象时，提出了“迷失的货币”，并将我国这种超额货币供给与低物价水平并存的现象称为“中国之谜”。学术界针对此疑问展开了大量的研究，提出了货币化、被迫储蓄、货币滞存等一系列解释假说。关于我国超额货币供给是否存在？如何度量？经济学家也争论不一。本文基于此来研究我国经济转轨时期长期存在的超额货币供给现象。本文基于传统交易方程式的修正，放松了货币流通速度不变的假定，同时兼顾实体经济与虚拟经济对货币流通速度的影响，对我国三个货币层次的超额货币供给进行测量，实证分析结果表明我国确实存在超额货币供给，且相对于较多文献研究，我国超额货币供给程度高估了。但同时我国超额货币供给存在阶段性的结构特征。基于较多成因假说和本文的测算结果，充分考虑我国经济内在转型与外在开放的经济全球化背景，对我国超额货币供给成因进行分析，发现经济货币化水平对第一阶段我国超额货币供给的形成有较好的解释力，而第二阶段我国超额货币供给首先离不开我国近些年宽松的货币政策，同时与我国内在失衡的经济结构、国际收支持续双顺差以及人民币汇率波动和管理体制密不可分。一方面，居民储蓄的增长促进了准货币的快速增长，而准货币对货币M2的超额增长起到重要作用，与此同时，政府投资也促使货币的被动增长；另一方面，我国长期国际收支双顺差与强制结售汇制促使大量外汇集中于货币当局，人民币汇率的波动与预期进一步推动了基础货币的被动发行。这内外两方面的原因最终导致我国超额货币供给存在且不可忽视。从长远角度看，要根本上减小我国经济运行中超额货币供给的影响，，也得调整货币政策，改革外汇管理制度，并从根本上改善微观经济主体的消费、储蓄以及投资行为。
[Abstract]:Since 1978, with the rapid economic growth, the average annual growth rate of M2CM1 in China has been as high as 20%, far exceeding the economic growth rate.At the same time, China's financial development index (M2/GDP) has been on the rise, reaching 1.93 in 2010, far exceeding the vast majority of countries in the world.During this period, the corresponding price level in China is still within the scope of control. McKinnon 1993), when studying the phenomenon that the relationship between the American economy and the monetary, output and price is contrary to the traditional monetary quantity theory, the author puts forward the "lost currency".This phenomenon of excess money supply and low price level in China is called "the mystery of China".The academic circles have carried out a lot of research to solve this problem and put forward a series of explanation hypotheses such as monetization forced savings and money lag.On the existence of excess money supply in China?How to measure?Economists are also at odds.Based on this, this paper studies the phenomenon of excess money supply in the period of economic transition.Based on the modification of the traditional trading equation, this paper loosens the assumption that the velocity of money circulation is invariable, and at the same time gives consideration to the influence of the real economy and the fictitious economy on the velocity of money circulation, and measures the excess money supply at three levels of money in China.The empirical results show that there is excess money supply in China, and the degree of excess money supply is overestimated.But at the same time, the excess money supply of our country has the stage structure characteristic.Based on the hypothesis of more causes and the results of this paper, this paper analyzes the causes of excess money supply in China, taking into account the background of the internal transformation of our economy and the external open economic globalization.It is found that the level of economic monetization has a good explanation for the formation of the first stage of China's excess money supply, while the second stage of China's excess money supply is first inseparable from China's loose monetary policy in recent years.At the same time, it is closely related to the unbalanced economic structure of our country, the continuous double surplus of international balance of payments, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and the management system.On the one hand, the growth of household savings promotes the rapid growth of quasi-money, which plays an important role in the excess growth of money M2. At the same time, government investment also promotes the passive growth of money; on the other hand,China's long-term balance of payments double surplus and forced foreign exchange settlement and sale system promote a large number of foreign exchange concentrated in the monetary authorities. The fluctuation and expectation of RMB exchange rate further promote the passive issuance of the basic currency.Both internal and external reasons lead to the existence of excess money supply and can not be ignored.In the long run, it is necessary to adjust monetary policy, reform foreign exchange management system, and fundamentally improve the behavior of consumption, savings and investment of microeconomic subjects in order to reduce the influence of excess money supply in China's economic operation.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.2;F224

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