中国股市财富效应的研究

发布时间：2018-04-20 21:34

本文选题：股市财富 + 效应消费　；参考：《华侨大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：股份制改革之后，我国股市表现红火，而随后经历暴跌之后，一直在缓慢下跌，前期的财富增长是否对消费支出产生显著影响，金融财富的上升是否会促进内需？我国股市财富效应的问题应运而生。股票市场的财富效应可表示为由股价的波动，导致股票持有人财富的波动，，进而刺激或抑制消费的结果，并影响短期边际消费倾向，促进或减缓经济增长的效应。本文采用规范研究和实证研究相结合的方法，首先从经济学、行为金融学角度阐述了股市财富效应的理论依据，在这个基础上分析股市财富效应的基本特征；其次，利用最新数据对我国股市直接与间接财富效应分别进行了实证分析，采用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲函数等方法分析了我国股市整体财富效应、正财富效应、负财富效应和间接财富效应；最后，运用了图表说明了股市财富效应的制约因素并提出加强我国股票市场财富效应的政策建议。通过本文研究得到几个结论：（1）我国股票市场不存在整体财富效应，替代效应明显，目前我国决定居民消费支出的主要因素依然是居民可支配收入；（2）我国股市存在微弱的正财富效应，股份制改革后的正财富效应大于股改前的财富效应；（3）无论是股改之前还是股改之后，我国股票市场均不存在负财富效应；（4）股票财富变化对消费者信心有影响，但程度较小，我国股市存在微弱间接效应。
[Abstract]:After the share-holding system reform, the stock market of our country is booming, and then after experiencing the collapse, it has been falling slowly all the time. Is the growth of wealth in the early period having a significant impact on consumer spending, and will the rise of financial wealth promote domestic demand? The problem of wealth effect in Chinese stock market arises at the historic moment. The wealth effect of the stock market can be expressed as the fluctuation of the stock price, which leads to the fluctuation of the wealth of the stock holder, which in turn stimulates or suppresses the result of consumption, and affects the short-term marginal propensity to consume and the effect of promoting or slowing down the economic growth. By combining normative and empirical studies, this paper first expounds the theoretical basis of the stock market wealth effect from the angle of economics and behavioral finance, and then analyzes the basic characteristics of the stock market wealth effect. Using the latest data, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the direct and indirect wealth effects in China's stock market, and analyzes the overall wealth effect and the positive wealth effect of the stock market in China by the methods of cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse function. Finally, the paper explains the restricting factors of the wealth effect of stock market and puts forward some policy suggestions to strengthen the wealth effect in China's stock market. Through the research of this paper, several conclusions are obtained: 1) there is no overall wealth effect in China's stock market, and the substitution effect is obvious. At present, the main factor that determines the residents' consumption expenditure is the resident's disposable income; (2) there is a weak positive wealth effect in China's stock market, and the positive wealth effect after the stock system reform is greater than the wealth effect before the stock reform; 3) there is no negative wealth effect in China's stock market either before or after the stock reform; 4) the change of stock wealth has influence on consumer confidence, but to a lesser extent, there is a weak indirect effect in China's stock market.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51

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