国际金融危机对中国经济影响的统计测度研究

发布时间：2018-04-22 18:42

本文选题：国际金融危机 + 统计测度　；参考：《湖南大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：2007年8月“次贷危机”开始席卷美国、欧盟和日本等世界主要金融市场，进而致使全球主要金融市场出现流动性危机，经过迅速地扩散和深化逐渐演变为自1929年大萧条以来全球最严重的一次国际金融危机。国际金融危机影响尚未消退，2009年12月希腊债务危机又开始显现。时至2010年，除了希腊之外欧洲的几个“明星经济体”也被卷入这场危机之中，欧元区内的这几个经济体面临着高涨的政府债务危机，迫切需要得到外部的救助。“欧洲主权债务危机”基本上属于“次贷危机”影响的延续。与以往有所不同，此次国际金融危机呈现出了一些新的特征，其影响范围之广、影响时间之长、影响程度之深、各个经济体政府干预动作之频繁都是之前的金融危机所未能比拟的。中国作为第二大经济体，目前正处于经济转型时期，经济增长方式转变和产业结构的调整优化则是近些年来中国经济改革发展的首要目标。国际金融危机的爆发和蔓延不仅给全球经济带来冲击，也给中国经济产生了较大的负面冲击与影响，不仅短期内显著影响GDP等一些宏观经济指标，更重要的是从中长期影响经济增长路径和产业结构的调整，而且这种影响将是隐性的、长期的，且具有时滞性特征。本文首先系统梳理了金融危机传导经典理论，认为金融危机对经济的影响是一个渐进、动态的过程，而非一个静止的状态，而且这种影响是长期的。通过国际金融危机呈现出的特征和影响的表现，尤其是对实体经济产生了较大影响，从经济增长持续性理论和产业结构演变理论分析入手，认为危机对经济的影响效应通过资本、劳动、技术三个投入要素作用于经济系统内部，影响着经济增长的驱动力，进而影响着经济增长模式的演变，同时也影响着系统内部经济结构的调整，尤其是产业结构的演变。构建了基于经济增长驱动力、产业结构两个视角与危机影响弹性、影响路径两个维度相结合的国际金融危机影响效应测度理论分析框架。将研究思路设定为着力于中长期发展态势的考察，测度国际金融危机对经济增长路径的弹性影响效应、影响路径，以及对产业结构的弹性影响效应、影响路径，在测度结果的基础上对国际金融危机期间的刺激政策进行简要评价，，并提出后续政策干预的逐步退出措施建议，以及促进经济可持续增长的宏观经济政策措施，以提升经济自身抵御国际金融危机冲击的能力。其次，依据所构建的理论分析框架，从经济增长内部驱动力即生产要素出发，利用假定规模报酬不变的道格拉斯生产函数，选用状态空间统计模型，实证分析了国际金融危机通过资本、技术和劳动等生产要素对经济增长的时变弹性影响效应。结果表明，国际金融危机导致我国资本产出弹性系数呈现加速下降趋势，资本驱动型经济增长已难以实现经济可持续发展，同时全要素生产率呈现加速下降趋势，全要素生产率的变动对经济增长贡献率呈现负效应。第三，本部分从国际金融危机对经济总量路径的影响视角，不但从理论上考察分析经济增长各生产要素的时滞变化，而且选用结构向量自回归模型，实证分析各个生产要素在受到国际金融危机影响下的响应时间以及响应强度的变化。研究表明，技术进步和人均资本对经济增长的作用影响时滞发生了较为明显的变化，其中经济增长对技术进步的响应时间达到缩短了一个季度，对人均资本的最大响应在时间上与国际金融危机前比较提前2个季度。技术进步对经济增长的贡献率相比国际金融危机前获得较大提升，而人均资本对经济增长的贡献率相较国际金融危机前却呈现出较大幅度的下降。第四，基于产业结构理论视角，全面考虑危机与政策叠加效应对三大产业的增长路径的影响，运用干预分析模型对三大产业运行的偏离程度和影响进行实证分析，并对刺激干预政策进行简要评价。国际金融危机主要对第二、三产业产生了重要影响，经济刺激政策在短期内起到了较好的作用，对产业的拉动效应显著。第五，从产业结构视角进一步分析国际金融危机对三大产业的弹性影响效应，模拟刻画三大产业对GDP弹性的中长期变动轨迹，运用基于岭回归的滚动回归模型进行实证分析，结果表明，国际金融危机提高了第一产业对GDP的弹性系数，降低了第二、三产业对GDP的弹性系数，表明单纯地加大对第二产业资本投入已然不能提升经济增长的质量，从而为探讨经济产业结构转型、实现经济的可持续发展提供经验性证明。最后，以前面对国际金融危机影响效应的理论分析和对中国经济影响的实证测度结论为基础，考虑到随着国际金融危机影响效应的逐步消减，提出干预政策措施逐步退出的机制，此外，基于经济可持续性发展和经济结构的调整优化的宏观目标，提出中长期里中国宏观经济政策调控的措施和建议。
[Abstract]:In August 2007, the "subprime crisis" began to sweep the major financial markets of the United States, the EU and Japan, and then led to the liquidity crisis in the world's major financial markets. After the rapid spread and deepening, the world's most serious international financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1929. The impact of the international financial crisis has not been subsided. In December 2009, the Greek debt crisis began to emerge again. In 2010, in 2010, several "star economies" in Europe, except Greece, were also involved in the crisis. These economies in the euro area were faced with a high government debt crisis and urgently needed external assistance. "The European sovereign debt crisis" is basically "the" "European sovereign debt crisis". The impact of the subprime crisis is the continuation of the impact. Different from the past, the international financial crisis has shown some new features, its scope of impact, the length of the impact of time, the depth of impact, the frequency of government intervention in the various economies is not comparable to the previous financial crisis. As the second largest economy, it is now in the right place. In the period of economic transformation, the transformation of the mode of economic growth and the adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure are the primary objectives of the economic reform and development in China in recent years. The outbreak and spread of the international financial crisis not only brought the impact of the global economy, but also had a great negative impact on the Chinese economy, which not only had a significant impact on the GDP in the short term, but also had a significant impact on the economy in the short term. Some macroeconomic indicators, more importantly, affect the economic growth path and the adjustment of the industrial structure in the middle and long term, and this effect will be recessive, long-term and time-delay characteristics.
This paper first systematically combs the classical theory of the financial crisis transmission, and thinks that the impact of the financial crisis on the economy is a gradual, dynamic process, not a static state, and this effect is long-term. The characteristics and effects of the international financial crisis, especially the substantial impact on the real economy, are greatly influenced by the financial crisis. On the basis of the theory of sustained economic growth and the theoretical analysis of industrial structure evolution, it is believed that the effect of crisis on economy is influenced by three input elements of capital, labor and technology in the economic system, affecting the driving force of economic growth, and affecting the evolution of the economic growth pattern, and also affecting the adjustment of the internal economic structure of the system. The theoretical analysis framework based on the economic growth driving force, the two perspectives of the industrial structure and the resilience of the crisis and the impact of the two dimensions of the path on the impact effect of the international financial crisis is constructed. The research ideas are set to focus on the development of the middle and long term development and measure the international financial crisis. The elastic effects of the economic growth path, the impact of the path, the elastic effect on the industrial structure, the impact of the path, the brief evaluation of the stimulus policies during the international financial crisis on the basis of the measurement results, and the gradual exit measures of the follow-up policy intervention, as well as the macro economic growth of the economy, and the macro economic growth of the economy. Economic policies and measures to enhance the ability of the economy to resist the impact of the international financial crisis.
Secondly, based on the theoretical analysis framework constructed, starting from the internal driving force of economic growth is the factor of production, using the Douglas production function which assumes the constant return of scale, the state space statistical model is selected to analyze the impact of the international financial crisis on the time variable elasticity of economic growth through the factors of capital, technology and labor. The results show that the international financial crisis has led to the accelerating decline trend of China's capital output elasticity coefficient, and the capital driven economic growth has been difficult to achieve sustainable economic development, while the total factor productivity presents an accelerated decline trend, and the total factor productivity change has a negative effect on the contribution rate of economic growth.
Third, from the perspective of the impact of the international financial crisis on the path of economic aggregate, this part not only theoretically investigates and analyzes the time-delay changes of the production factors of economic growth, but also selects the structure vector autoregressive model to analyze the response time and the change of the response intensity of each factor of production under the impact of the international financial crisis. The study shows that the effect of technological progress and per capita capital on economic growth has a significant change in time lag, in which the response time of economic growth to technological progress has been shortened by a quarter, and the maximum response to per capita capital is 2 quarters ahead of the international financial crisis. The contribution rate has been greatly improved compared with the international financial crisis, while the contribution rate of per capita capital to economic growth has been significantly lower than before the international financial crisis.
Fourth, based on the perspective of industrial structure theory, the effect of crisis and policy superposition effect on the growth path of the three industries is comprehensively considered, and the intervention analysis model is used to make an empirical analysis on the deviation and influence of the operation of the three industries, and a brief evaluation of the stimulus intervention policy is made. The international financial crisis is mainly produced in the second, third industry. As a result, the economic stimulus policy has played a better role in the short term and has a significant pulling effect on the industry.
Fifth, from the perspective of industrial structure, we further analyze the impact of the international financial crisis on the elasticity of the three industries, simulate and depict the medium and long term changes of the GDP elasticity of the three major industries, and use the rolling regression model based on ridge regression to carry out an empirical analysis. The results show that the international financial crisis has improved the elasticity coefficient of the first industry to the GDP. The elasticity coefficient of the second, third industry to the GDP shows that only increasing the capital input to the second industry can not improve the quality of economic growth, thus providing empirical proof for the discussion of the transformation of the economic industrial structure and the sustainable development of the economy.
Finally, on the basis of the theoretical analysis of the impact effect of the international financial crisis and the conclusion of the empirical measurement of the impact of China's economy, the mechanism for the gradual withdrawal of intervention policies and measures is put forward in consideration of the gradual reduction of the effects of the international financial crisis, in addition, the macro optimization based on the economic sustainability and the adjustment of the economic structure In the medium and long term, measures and suggestions for macroeconomic regulation and control in China are put forward.

【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F124;F831.59

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