美联储量化宽松货币政策实施效果及对中国的启示——基于托宾Q理论的货币政策传导机制视角

发布时间：2018-04-22 21:01

本文选题：量化宽松 + 货币政策传导机制　；参考：《国际金融研究》2013年12期

【摘要】：本文首先基于托宾Q理论的货币政策传导机制视角,对美联储量化宽松货币政策的实施效果进行分析,然后对金融危机以来中国企业托宾Q值、货币政策及经济走势进行梳理总结,探索对我国当前货币政策走向的启示意义,最后得出以下结论:美联储的四次量化宽松货币政策,进一步保持了资本市场融资功能,刺激创新型企业融资,起到了恢复市场信心、复苏房地产市场、推动产业结构调整和经济增长的作用。在我国,随着股票市场在货币经济中的作用日益增强,托宾Q值逐步显现。2007年以来在中国人民银行实施偏紧的货币政策下,我国有效抵御了国际金融危机冲击。2013年上半年中国经济继续稳定增长,但部分宏观经济指标呈下滑趋势,金融市场资金持续紧缺,热钱压境,股市低迷,潜在的风险不容忽视。纵观时下的国内外经济政策环境,我国可以考虑推出适度宽松的货币政策,推进利率市场化,这不仅有利于缩小人民币与美元利差,抵御境外热钱冲击中国市场,还有利于在发达国家拟退出量化宽松之际抵御国际资金回流,推动人民币国际化;更有利于降低企业成本、提升托宾Q值,理顺托宾Q理论货币政策传导机制,有效激励、引导货币从资本市场转向实体经济投资,促进实体经济又好又快发展。
[Abstract]:Based on the perspective of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy based on Tobin Q theory, this paper first analyzes the effect of quantitative easing monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and then analyzes the Tobin Q value of Chinese enterprises since the financial crisis. The monetary policy and economic trend are summarized, and the enlightenment to the trend of monetary policy in China is explored. Finally, the following conclusions are drawn: the four times quantitative easing monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has further maintained the function of capital market financing. Stimulating the financing of innovative enterprises has played a role in restoring market confidence, reviving the real estate market, promoting industrial restructuring and economic growth. In China, with the increasing role of the stock market in the monetary economy, Tobin's Q value has gradually appeared. Since 2007, the people's Bank of China has implemented a tight monetary policy. China effectively withstood the impact of the international financial crisis. In the first half of 2013, China's economy continued to grow steadily, but some macroeconomic indicators showed a downward trend, the financial market continued to be short of funds, hot money pressure, stock market downturn, potential risks can not be ignored. Looking at the current economic policy environment at home and abroad, China can consider introducing a moderately loose monetary policy to promote the marketization of interest rates, which is not only conducive to narrowing the spread between the renminbi and the US dollar, but also to resisting the impact of foreign hot money on the Chinese market. It is also conducive to resisting the return of international capital and promoting the internationalization of the renminbi at a time when developed countries intend to withdraw from quantitative easing. It is also conducive to reducing enterprise costs, raising Tobin Q value, and straightening out the transmission mechanism of Tobin Q's theory of monetary policy, so as to provide effective incentives. Guide the money from the capital market to the real economy investment, promote the real economy sound and rapid development.
【作者单位】：西安理工大学经济与管理学院;工业和信息化部青岛疗养院;首都师范大学;中国社会科学院金融研究所金融系;
【基金】：国家社科基金重点项目:虚拟经济与实体经济协调发展研究(项目批准号:11AJL002)
【分类号】：F822.0;F827.12

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