中国货币政策产业非均衡效应实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-22 21:20

本文选题：货币政策 + 传导渠道　；参考：《统计研究》2013年04期

【摘要】：本文利用中国1999—2011年季度数据,构建由不同产业GDP、外汇储备、CPI、不同货币政策中介目标组成的四元SVAR模型系列,测算出不同货币政策冲击对不同产业的具体效应。结果发现:①综合渠道冲击的作用力度最大,时滞最短;信贷渠道冲击的作用力度和时滞适中;利率渠道冲击的作用力度最小,时滞最长。②在信贷传导渠道乃至综合传导渠道中,第二产业的反应力度最大,第一产业次之,第三产业最小;而在利率传导渠道中,第二产业的反应力度最大,第三产业次之,第一产业最小。③不同产业对不同货币政策冲击反应时滞的长短差别较为一致。第三产业最短,第二产业次之,第一产业最长。
[Abstract]:Based on China's data from 1999 to 2011, this paper constructs a series of quaternion SVAR models composed of different industries, foreign exchange reserves and intermediate targets of monetary policy, and calculates the specific effects of different monetary policy shocks on different industries. The results show that the comprehensive channel impact is the most powerful, the delay is the shortest, the credit channel impact is moderate, the interest rate channel impact is the least. In the credit transmission channel and even the comprehensive transmission channel, the second industry has the greatest response, the first industry second and the third industry the least, while in the interest rate transmission channel, the secondary industry has the greatest response. The third industry followed, the first industry smallest .3 different industries to different monetary policy impact time delay difference is more consistent. The third industry is the shortest, the second industry second and the first industry the longest.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学国民核算研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目“国家统计数据质量管理研究”(09&ZD040) 教育部人文社会科学规划项目“CPI偏差理论、测度方法与中国应用研究”(12YJC910005)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F822.0;F224

【参考文献】