国际短期资本流动对我国经济的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-23 09:11

本文选题：国际短期资本流动 + 跨境投机资本　；参考：《湘潭大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济全球化和金融创新的不断深入，国际短期资本的流动日益频繁，这将对资本输入国和资本输出国的经济发展产生重大影响。一般来说，国际短期资本的流动一方面能满足资本输入国对资本的需求，同时还能为资本输出国提供更多的投资渠道，另一方面也会在一定程度上削弱资本输入国和资本输出国宏观经济政策的有效性，加剧房地产市场和证券市场的波动，导致整个金融体系的风险加大。新形势下国际短期资本流动具有机构化、投机化、衍生化等特点，因此，国际短期资本流动在给各国带来经济发展的机遇的同时，也对各国的经济体制提出了更高的要求。货币当局必须不断提高对国际短期资本的管理水平，最大程度的利用国际短期资本来发展经济。中国作为经济持续增长的发展中国家，在新的宏观经济形势下，其国际短期资本流动的规模、渠道、结构等各方面都发生了巨大的变化，对宏观经济稳定性、金融市场和银行体系稳定性造成了不同程度的影响。国际短期资本流动对我国宏观经济稳定性的影响主要表现在对我国通货膨胀、国际收支、以及国内储蓄和投资水平的影响上；其对我国金融市场的影响主要表现在对我国货币市场、证券市场和外汇市场的影响上；其对我国银行体系稳定性的影响主要表现在对我国银行体系信用风险、市场风险和流动性风险水平的影响上。测算一国国际短期资本规模的方法有直接法、间接法、混合法，根据中国经济的实际情况，须结合直接法和修正后的间接法对中国国际短期资本的规模进行测算。从测算结果可以看出，中国国际短期资本流动的规模在总体上表现出上升趋势，但在1997年、2006年、2008年的波动幅度较大。此外，中国国际短期资本流动净额和国内生产总值（GDP）之间的协整关系分析结果表明，国际短期资本的流动对中国经济有促进作用。为了充分利用国际短期资本给中国经济发展带来的机遇，最大程度的防范国际短期资本流动风险，，中国可从借鉴国外国际短期资本管理经验、加强自身制度建设、参与国际监管体系三个方面加强对国际短期资本的管理。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of economic globalization and financial innovation, the flow of international short-term capital is becoming more and more frequent, which will have a great impact on the economic development of capital importing countries and capital exporting countries. Generally speaking, international short-term capital flows can, on the one hand, meet the capital needs of the capital-importing countries and at the same time provide more investment channels for capital-exporting countries. On the other hand, it will weaken the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies of capital importing countries and capital exporting countries to some extent, aggravate the volatility of real estate market and securities market, and increase the risk of the whole financial system. Under the new situation, the international short-term capital flow has the characteristics of institutionalization, speculation, derivation, etc. Therefore, the international short-term capital flow not only brings the economic development opportunity to the countries, but also puts forward higher requirements to the economic system of each country. Monetary authorities must constantly improve the management of international short-term capital and maximize the use of international short-term capital to develop the economy. As a developing country with sustained economic growth, under the new macroeconomic situation, China has undergone tremendous changes in the scale, channels and structure of its international short-term capital flows. The stability of financial markets and banking systems has been affected to varying degrees. The impact of short-term international capital flow on China's macroeconomic stability is mainly reflected in the impact on China's inflation, balance of payments, and the level of domestic savings and investment; Its influence on our country's financial market is mainly manifested in the influence on our country's money market, securities market and foreign exchange market, and its influence on the stability of our banking system is mainly manifested in the credit risk of our country's banking system. Market risk and liquidity risk level on the impact. The methods of calculating a country's international short-term capital scale include direct method, indirect method and mixed method. According to the actual situation of China's economy, the scale of China's international short-term capital should be measured by combining direct method and modified indirect method. It can be seen from the results that the scale of China's international short-term capital flows shows an upward trend on the whole, but in 1997, 2006 and 2008, the volatility is quite large. In addition, the cointegration analysis between China's net international short-term capital flows and GDP shows that the international short-term capital flows can promote China's economy. In order to make full use of the opportunities brought by international short-term capital to China's economic development and to prevent the risk of international short-term capital flow to the maximum extent, China can learn from the experience of international short-term capital management abroad and strengthen its own system construction. Participate in the international regulatory system in three aspects to strengthen the management of international short-term capital.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F831.7;F124

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