外商直接投资对我国出口长期影响的实证分析——基于外部市场容量和外部占有率的分析框架

发布时间：2018-04-23 09:24

本文选题：外商直接投资 + 金融危机　；参考：《北京师范大学学报(社会科学版)》2010年03期

【摘要】：近年外商直接投资企业出口占我国出口比重越来越大,而金融危机以来我国吸收外商直接投资出现了显著下降,同期我国出口也出现了下降。鉴于我国宏观经济逐年增大的出口依存度,有必要从理论和实证角度考察我国吸收外商直接投资对出口的长期影响,并为我国近期吸引外资提供政策建议。产品生命周期理论、内部化理论等许多经典理论以及已有的实证研究都说明了吸收直接投资对一国出口可能具有促进作用。在其基础上,一个改进的基于外部市场容量和外部占有率框架的出口决定实证模型表明,1985年至2008年我国吸收直接投资对出口确实具有显著促进作用,但其对我国出口的促进作用存在2-3年的时滞。政府应当充分重视近期吸收外商直接投资减少对我国出口的消极作用,在注重其结构优化的前提下继续吸引外资流入。
[Abstract]:In recent years, foreign direct investment enterprises' export accounts for more and more of our country's export, but since the financial crisis, China's absorption of foreign direct investment has decreased significantly, and our country's export has also declined in the same period. In view of the increasing degree of export dependence in China's macro-economy year by year, it is necessary to investigate the long-term impact of China's foreign direct investment (FDI) on exports from both theoretical and empirical perspectives, and to provide policy suggestions for China to attract foreign investment in the near future. Many classical theories, such as product life cycle theory, internalization theory, etc., as well as existing empirical studies, show that absorbing direct investment may promote a country's exports. On its basis, an improved empirical model of export decision based on the framework of external market capacity and external share shows that China's absorption of direct investment from 1985 to 2008 has a significant impact on exports. However, there is a delay of 2-3 years in promoting the export of our country. The government should attach great importance to the negative effect of the reduction of FDI on China's exports in the near future, and continue to attract FDI under the premise of optimizing its structure.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院;
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.62

【参考文献】